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Role of technologies in an energy efficient economy – model-based analysis of policy measures and transformation pathways to a sustainable energy system

Deliverables

EU Carbon leakage and competitiveness case study report

This case study on EU carbon leakage and competitiveness puts the EU economy in a global context and analyses the significance of energy and CO2 costs for EU energy intensive industries. One workshop with 10-15 participants is foreseen to further refine the scope of this case study.

Focus Reports on behavioural effects and distributional impacts

This task focuses on exploring how different socio-economic groups, primarily private households, will be impacted by different technology transitions, in terms of household expenditure on energy for heating, cooling and transportation, and how these impacts are spread across, and within, the Member States and demographic groups. Existing energy poverty focused policies are collected and the policy implications of the SET-Plan to these policies are assessed. More specifically, this task will assess the most important impacts vectors and related pathway metrics. Impact vectors are further used to determine the dimensions across which impacts are disaggregated by societal groups. Tools are downscaled for translating the pathway metrics to variables needed to assess the impacts (from Task 6.3) on individual groups across pathways and member states. The impacts and their distribution are then assessed across the pathways, based on the indicators developed under WP1. Existing energy poverty policies and the implications of the SET-Plan to these policies will be assessed.

Focus Report on climate impacts on the Energy-Food-Water nexus

In this task we focus on climate change impacts on Europe’s energy system, which might challenge the implementation of the SET-Plan. WP5 will look at changes in the water balance and thereby the access to water for power production. Simulation of such changes will be performed for different regions in Europe. This will be achieved using statistical analysis and down-scaling of future climate pathways. Possible changes in temperature and the influence on heating and cooling needs will also be assessed. Further, WP5 will carry out a desktop study on the links between the energy system and agricultural and land-use pathways as well as related emission trajectories. Land-use pathways for the EU will be identified that are consistent with the overall narratives developed in WP1. Non-energy emissions will be taken into account as well as links between water use and energy demand (e.g., water for irrigation of biofuels) resulting from these land-use pathways.

Focus Reports on economic impacts

The pathway analysis will take place at the same time as the other WPs conduct their pathway analysis, i.e. ideally between months 20-32. This will facilitate the exchange of data for iterations requiring data inputs and outputs to and from other WPs. All generated results will be gathered and evaluated, in order to identify “winners and losers” as well as strength and weaknesses of the EU regarding the analysed pathways. Finally, policy recommendations will be derived and provided for WP7.

Technology Roadmaps

In this task, expert panels will guide the development of Technology Roadmaps along the dimensions of technology maturity and market acceptance potential. The expert network will involve decision makers and actors from industry, academy and finance, which will regularly participate in programme and project assessments as well as in-house internal foresight exercises. In addition to engagement through online tools, three technology workshops with 10 participants each are foreseen for this purpose. The scheme will also be extended to advanced cost evaluation models enabling future cost projections that will then be used directly in the definition of pathways in WP1 and the modelling tools. The resulting Technology Roadmaps will identify the points in technology R&D at which the value chain can positively be influenced to reduce costs and increase market deployment potential.

Report on pathway definition with drivers, assumptions, indicators and input data

Pathway definition: Define the major pathways and pathway clusters in more depths and selection of individual pathways to help embed case studies (to be elaborated on in the WPs 3-6) within pathway clusters. Identification of drivers and quantification of key assumptions: The main drivers for each pathway will be identified, such as assumptions regarding economic growth, societal development or technological innovation. The key input assumptions will be quantified to ensure their consistent representation throughout the work packages. Stakeholder engagement will be included in this process through the Stakeholder Interaction Portal developed in WP7. Further, 2 stakeholder workshops with 30 participants each will be organised. Stakeholder input will be sought in this process to ensure the policy-relevance of the approach.

Policy Briefs on Environment, Health and Resources

Policy analysis and recommendations will be carried out based on the modelling results of the WP. This will relate to aspects of environment, health and resources highlighting the linkages between them.

Focus Report on Environmental impacts

The impact pathway approach (IPA) developed in the ExternE project series and then further developed in the EU projects NEEDS, CASES, INTARESE, HEIMTSA, TRANSPHORM and others will be used to quantify the health and environmental effects of the different technology pathways. The IPA will be applied to assess health impacts aggregated to DALYs (disability adjusted life years) and environmental impacts (biodiversity losses and land use change) quantified as pdf/m² (potentially disappeared fraction of species per m²). Further, impacts are then converted into damage costs. Using emissions from the EMC2 regional gridded concentrations are calculated using a parametric version of the EMEP model , a multi-layer atmospheric dispersion model for the long-range transport of air pollution. An urban increment model is used as for estimating this PM10 and PM2.5 increment for all European cities > 50 000 people. Results from the non-linear EVA system will be compared to the linearised ECOSENSE system. This includes more realistic source-receptor relationships and estimation of the urban increment. New relationships found by using the process based EVA system will be transferred to ECOSENSE for improved results. The EVA system will be applied for calculation of unit costs of emissions from the energy sector for each country in Europe. These costs will be used as inputs to the Integrated European Model. This will be done for present and future conditions based on emissions and climate changes from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The information flow between the tools is explained in more depths in Section 1.3.3.6

Communication Plan

A plan to organise internal and external communication will be developed. It will define the roles of stakeholders and the appropriate modes of communication along the project process

Policy Briefs on Energy System Integration

The model runs include several iterations (where calibration would take place if new information becomes available such as a new statistical output or input through the stakeholder consultation) and pathway analysis in collaboration with the stakeholder consultation and pathway development process carried out in WP1 and WP7. The developed pathways are in line with the descriptions detailed in Section 1.3. Reference case runs will act as a basis for the pathways and the analysis of results. The additional model runs will allow the analysis of the costs and benefits of that particular pathway in relation to the reference case. Results will be presented to the stakeholders and will also act as input to other work packages (WP2-5) for more detailed case study assessments. The results and pathways will be analysed to inform the strategy recommendations developed in WP1.

Grid and dispatch case study report

Focusing on single year(s) at a much higher temporal resolution than what would be possible in the long-term Integrated European Model (IEM). Results from the pathways analysis of the IEM will be used as inputs to the unit commitment model PLEXOS . PLEXOS will analyse a shorter time horizon with more operational detail (e.g., ramp rates, forced outages, stochastic behaviour of renewables, operating reserves) to verify the feasibility of the dispatch calculated in the IEM and of the resulting system configuration.

Co-evolution of technologies case study report

This case study focuses on the technology portfolio patterns across a high number of pathways and draws insights from the dynamics that are observed across the pathways ((co)evolution and crowding out of technologies). A special energy system tool built for the UK will be used for the analysis and the generalisability of the insights to other member states is then assessed.

Focus Report on LCA and critical material demand for energy technologies

Environmental assessment of energy technologies will be performed, informed by the other tasks within this WP and following the EU ILCD Handbook for the application of LCA released in 2010. The results will serve to characterise the environmental sustainability of the systems and provide recommendations to energy policy makers. Life cycle inventories (LCIs) of different energy technologies will be modelled, building on inputs from WP6, in particular Task 6.2, combined with recent developments in LCI knowledge, e.g., via the release of the spatially differentiated EcoInvent 3.1. Many of the key technology investments of a future low carbon society rely on and increase the demand for critical materials. This task will identify these critical materials and analyse the likeliness for availability bottleneck. Starting with a literature review, these materials will then be mapped against the technologies included in the Integrated European Model, taking into account the uncertainties as described in the literature. The pathways developed in WP1 will be used to assess the material requirements of each pathway. These material requirements will then be further evaluated against the causes of criticalities to assess whether bottlenecks seem likely and under what conditions.

Innovation Readiness Level assessments

There have been recent efforts to transfer global Technology Roadmaps to an operational, decision- making level through the introduction of Demand Readiness Levels (DRL) in addition to the well-known Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Although the DRL is a good attempt to consider a market perspective, it fails to represent the innovative process dynamics. For innovative programme management purposes, this vision has thus been extended Innovation Readiness Level (IRL) concept in REEEM. Based on a set of indicators, this approach can be used to select individual technologies or portfolios of technologies based on their potential to access markets and on the associated risks. Risk analysis will be a full part of this assessment, enabling an evaluation of uncertainty in the innovative process. This classification is expected to help inform the assessments of the technology pathways on a systematic basis, in accordance with technology deployment reality and R&D priorities.

Policy briefs on Society, Consumers and Behaviour

This task will enable the better modelling of the adoption of energy efficient, innovative and novel technologies in homes and private transportation as described in the SET-Plan. Specifically, this task will collect empirically-derived stated-preference and revealed-preference data on individual actors’ technology preference, sensitivity to supply interruptions and demand flexibility. Data from a sample of countries will be used to estimate differences in preferences across the EU member states. Tools will be developed for analysing technology uptake for end-uses (e.g., discrete choice models) and to determine the key factors influencing decision. Their outputs will be used to inform the modelling in WP6 (e.g. technology specific discount rate parameters, inconvenience costs, price response) and harmonise the aggregation of the data (e.g., consumer groups) for input into the EU-wide energy system model (together with WP6).

Policy briefs on Economy

The pathway analysis will take place at the same time as the other WPs conduct their pathway analysis, i.e. ideally between months 20-32. This will facilitate the exchange of data for iterations requiring data inputs and outputs to and from other WPs. All generated results will be gathered and evaluated, in order to identify “winners and losers” as well as strength and weaknesses of the EU regarding the analysed pathways. Finally, policy recommendations will be derived and provided for WP7.

Ecosystem Services case study report

This case study will use the Ecological Assessment (EcA) Tool, which consists of modules for simulation of forest management and growth, as well as resulting bioenergy yield, carbon storage and habitat networks for relevant and prioritized biodiversity components. Habitat changes, the equivalent connected area of habitat networks will be estimated for prioritized biodiversity components. One workshop with 10-15 participants is foreseen for to refine the scope of the case study.

Regional energy security case study report

Energy security is 1 out of 4 overarching policy challenges of the SET-Plan Roadmap and 1 of the 5 dimensions of the Energy Union strategy. The study will focus on SET-Plan Roadmap themes 7 and 8. The analysis will include a suite of measures (e.g., demand shifting, changing grid synchronisation to the ENTSO-E system, building renovations), technologies (incl. storage), infrastructure (e.g., district heating, gas and electricity) and system requirements (e.g., flexibility requirements).

District heating case study report

One workshop with 10-15 participants is foreseen for to refine the scope of a case study on district heating, focusing on cities. The outputs will be used to evaluate how new, innovative district heating concepts can best contribute to lower expenditures and to reducing energy poverty. Technological choices for different pathways will be assessed regarding reliability, carbon neutrality and affordability.

Project manual

Project manual

Policy Briefs on Transformation Strategies and Pathways

Energy strategy recommendations will be developed based on the interpretations of the individual pathways. Results from the various pathways will be compared to gain an in-depth understanding of the energy system under different assumptions. This will allow deriving strategy recommendation which ensure a system that is both robust (it can absorb changes in key assumptions) and flexible (it allows later adjustments to react to changing circumstances).

Integrated Impact reports

Quantitative results from the various work packages will be consolidated and individual pathways, from the qualitative narratives to model-based quantifications, will be interpreted. This consolidation will ensure that a single comprehensive analysis will be performed, placing the assessment dimensions (technology, environment, economy, society) on an equal footing and employing the pathway diagnostics developed under task 1.2.

Stakeholder Interaction Portal

A Web Platform will serve as an information hub for all internal and external communication in the project. For internal communication, it will provide tools for project management, document storage, collaborative writing, discussion, and knowledge repository (wiki). For external communication, a Stakeholder Interaction Portal will be used to inform about the project and actively engage stakeholders. It will provide access to pathways, assumptions, sources, modelling tools and the learning simulation. It will enable to retrace the simulation results and enable modellers to compare them with their own simulations or to reproduce the simulations done.

Pathways Diagnostic Tool

The Pathways Diagnostics tool will be seamlessly connected to the Pathways Database developed task 6.1 in WP6. TOKNI will create and technically maintain the web platform based on open source tools. RLI will contribute with suggestions of features to include, while all partners will contribute to the discussion of needed features and will test them in their work packages.

Pathways Database

A flexible open-source and SQL-based Pathways Database will be set-up to service all models. It will be accessible through an interface on the project Web Platform. Existing databases within the Consortium will initially serve to populate the database, enabling open access as far as possible. Data gaps will be identified and filled to refine the models. The database will be updated to include additional technologies, demand categories, emission factors, etc. Additional data will be accessed through a range of public and private sources as well as drawing on data gathered for the case studies. Transparent data processing scripts and stand-alone tools will be developed to facilitate the communication between the various models used in REEEM, and to process basic to higher level datasets

Methodology for linking technology innovation to energy system models

This methodology will focus on defining different energy system configurations representing various aspects and degrees of technology innovation to be able to investigate the implications on cost projection pathways. Further factors such as technology learning, cost projections, efficiency curves will be considered to assess and anticipate the impact of different technologies of the SET-Plan in an energy system. The methodology will be adjusted to “technology rich” Integrated European Model used in REEEM (WP6) and its ability to enable detailed investigations of the roles and system wide impacts of technology.

Data Management Plan

This deliverable includes considerations on how the data is handled both during and after the completion of the project.

Integrated Energy System Model

The existing TIMES-PanEU energy optimisation model will be further developed/updated, which will include the incorporation of new insights derived from the case studies assessed in the other work packages in order to provide a more detailed overview of the EU energy system. The existing supply and demand sectors will be updated to adequately represent the SET-Plan in the model, including new behavioural aspects driving energy demand (WP4). The model targets appropriate horizons, e.g., 2030 or 2050, to assess the reaction of the energy system in terms of emissions and energy demands (WP3). The horizon chosen reflects important energy and climate objectives. The existing load curves will be adapted for the various demand sectors (e.g., transport, residential, industry) in response to the changing energy system (e.g., due to the integration of renewables).

Open-source Engagement Model

A multi-regional engagement model will be set up and aligned with input data and results of the more detailed tools applied in this proposal, especially the Integrated European Model and the satellite models applied in WP3-5. It will be set up to combine the key dynamics of these tools in a single framework which is usable and accessible to stakeholders. It will go beyond a pure energy systems focus and include simple metrics to consider environmental, economic and societal aspects. It will on the one hand be used as engine behind the learning simulation (task 7.4). On the other hand a web-based interface will enable external stakeholders to modify key parameters (or download the tool and modify any parameter), run this tool remotely, see how the results change and thus get a better understanding of how sensitive the model is to certain key assumptions. While the tool will be delivered by month 24, it will be updated throughout the project.

Online Energy Systems Learning Simulation

The objective of this task is to create an integrated Energy System Learning Simulation that enables teaching of decision makers as well as non-experts to better understand the multidisciplinary factors and their interdependencies in an energy system. Moreover, the learning simulation will help them understand the energy modelling process from data input to shaping the model and interpreting the results. The case studies from WP1, the Integrated Energy System Model from WP6 and the Open-source Engagement Model (task 7.3) will form the basis for the specification, design, implementation and testing of the learning simulation. The community will also play a key role in specifying, designing and testing the learning simulation. The learning simulation will be run at stakeholder meetings held throughout this project, and will also be made available to educational institutions and the general public online. While the simulation will be delivered by month 24, it will be updated throughout the project.

European Modelling Forum

This task will focus on engaging a variety of stakeholders, disseminating the results to a broad audience, and feeding the findings into EU discussions, especially related to the SET-Plan. Various interest groups (as outlined in Section 1.3.5) will be addressed and involved through a multidisciplinary stakeholder dialogue building on online exchanges as well as expert workshops. These will serve to get additional input for the pathway and case study assessments performed in WPs 1-6, to cross-check assumptions, to peer-review, discuss and communicate the results and to engage decision makers. A plan to organise internal and external communication will be developed. It will define the roles of stakeholders and the appropriate modes of communication along the project process.

Publications

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

Author(s): Ulas Im, Jørgen Brandt, Camilla Geels, Kaj Mantzius Hansen, Jesper Heile Christensen, Mikael Skou Andersen, Efisio Solazzo, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocio Baro, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Aidan Farrow, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Ciao-Kai Liang, Uarpor
Published in: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Issue 18/8, 2018, Page(s) 5967-5989, ISSN 1680-7324
DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-5967-2018

Influence of anthropogenic emissions and boundary conditions on multi-model simulations of major air pollutants over Europe and North America in the framework of AQMEII3

Author(s): Ulas Im, Jesper Heile Christensen, Camilla Geels, Kaj Mantzius Hansen, Jørgen Brandt, Efisio Solazzo, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Alessandra Balzarini, Rocio Baro, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Johannes Bieser, Augustin Colette, Gabriele Curci, Aidan Farrow, Johannes Flemming, Andrea Fraser, Pedro Jimenez-Guerrero, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Peng Liu, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Laura Palacios-Peña, Guido Pirovano
Published in: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Issue 18/12, 2018, Page(s) 8929-8952, ISSN 1680-7324
DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-8929-2018

Transparency, reproducibility, and quality of energy system analyses – A process to improve scientific work

Author(s): Ludwig Hülk, Berit Müller, Martin Glauer, Elisa Förster, Birgit Schachler
Published in: Energy Strategy Reviews, Issue 22, 2018, Page(s) 264-269, ISSN 2211-467X
DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2018.08.014

Comprehensive representation of models for energy system analyses: Insights from the Energy Modelling Platform for Europe (EMP-E) 2017

Author(s): Berit Müller, Francesco Gardumi, Ludwig Hülk
Published in: Energy Strategy Reviews, Issue 21, 2018, Page(s) 82-87, ISSN 2211-467X
DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2018.03.006

Forest bioenergy feedstock in Lithuania – Renewable energy goals and the use of forest resources

Author(s): X. Pang, R. Trubins, V. Lekavicius, A. Galinis, G. Mozgeris, G. Kulbokas, U. Mörtberg
Published in: Energy Strategy Reviews, Issue 24, 2019, Page(s) 244-253, ISSN 2211-467X
DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2019.04.004

Water use in electricity generation for water-energy nexus analyses: The European case

Author(s): Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews
Published in: Science of The Total Environment, Issue 651, 2019, Page(s) 2044-2058, ISSN 0048-9697
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.045

Capturing the distributional impacts of long-term low-carbon transitions

Author(s): Michael J. Fell, Steve Pye, Ian Hamilton
Published in: Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 2019, ISSN 2210-4224
DOI: 10.1016/j.eist.2019.01.007

Technology interdependency in the United Kingdom's low carbon energy transition

Author(s): Steve Pye, Pei-Hao Li, Ilkka Keppo, Brian O'Gallachoir
Published in: Energy Strategy Reviews, Issue 24, 2019, Page(s) 314-330, ISSN 2211-467X
DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2019.04.002

District heating in cities as a part of low-carbon energy system

Author(s): Aira Hast, Sanna Syri, Vidas Lekavičius, Arvydas Galinis
Published in: Energy, Issue 152, 2018, Page(s) 627-639, ISSN 0360-5442
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.03.156

Attributing differences in the fate of lateral boundary ozone in AQMEII3 models to physical process representations

Author(s): Peng Liu, Christian Hogrefe, Ulas Im, Jesper H. Christensen, Johannes Bieser, Uarporn Nopmongcol, Greg Yarwood, Rohit Mathur, Shawn Roselle, Tanya Spero
Published in: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Issue 18/23, 2018, Page(s) 17157-17175, ISSN 1680-7324
DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-17157-2018

Transition to Carbon Neutral Energy Systems - Implications to District Heating in Cities

Author(s): Aira Hast, Sanna Syri, Julia Welsch, Pinar Korkmaz, Olexandr Balyk
Published in: 2018 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 2018, Page(s) 1-5
DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2018.8469843

Carbon Leakage and Competitiveness: Socio-economic Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Decrease on the European Area Until 2050

Author(s): Roland Montenegro
Published in: 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market, 2017

Mapping European regions vulnerable to low-carbon transitions

Author(s): Will McDowall, Tobias Reinauer, Michal Miedzinski, and Steve Pye
Published in: 2019