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Meteorological Uncertainty Management for Trajectory Based Operations

Objective

In this project the problem of analysing and quantifying the effects of meteorological uncertainty in Trajectory Based Operations is addressed. In particular, two problems are considered: 1) trajectory planning and 2) sector demand analysis, both at the pre-tactical level (up to three hours before departure) and tactical level (during the flight).

In each problem two types of meteorological uncertainty are considered: wind uncertainty and convective zones (including individual storm cells). Weather predictions will be based on Ensemble Prediction Systems and Nowcasts.

At the trajectory scale, the main objective is to assess and improve the predictability of efficient 4D trajectories when weather uncertainty is taken into account. To reach this goal, a methodology based on the use of stochastic optimal control algorithms will be explored for robust trajectory planning at the pre-tactical level. At the tactical level, various tactics will be investigated to avoid storms by using a Monte-Carlo method.

At the sector scale, the main objective is to analyse the impact of the previously developed trajectory planning on sector demand. To achieve this objective, a methodology will be developed to measure the uncertainty of sector demand (probabilistic sector loading) based on the uncertainty of the individual trajectories. This analysis will also provide an understanding of how weather uncertainty propagates from the trajectory scale to the sector scale.

All the solutions proposed in this project will be evaluated and assessed using an advanced air traffic simulator.

This project is fully aligned with the call, where the following objectives are stated: “to enhance meteorological capabilities and their integration into ATM planning processes for improving ATM efficiency” and “to develop 4D trajectories that are optimised to take account of all environmental considerations”.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

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Programme(s)

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Topic(s)

Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.

Funding Scheme

Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.

SESAR-RIA - Research and Innovation action

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Call for proposal

Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.

(opens in new window) H2020-SESAR-2015-1

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Coordinator

UNIVERSIDAD DE SEVILLA
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 137 500,00
Address
CALLE S. FERNANDO 4
41004 Sevilla
Spain

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Region
Sur Andalucía Sevilla
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

€ 137 500,00

Participants (4)

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