Periodic Reporting for period 4 - VERSUS (Violence Elites and Resilience in States Under Stress)
Reporting period: 2022-03-01 to 2023-05-31
The ERC consolidator project grant Violence, Elites and Resilience in States Under Stress (VERSUS) engages in the study of disaggregated violence and politics in Africa. This project assesses the roles of elites in political networks, and estimates the effect of formal and informal characteristics and relationships on the arrangement and distribution of power. The relevance of the project is to better understand political survival, the use of violence and policy-entry points to improve the political situation of people.
Over the last decade, conflict has increased. In that time, developed countries have also invested heavily in political engineering and development. But these solutions have created new problems, and more people than ever are directly exposed to violence. Where can we go from here? First, we must reconsider what we know about conflict and patterns. Second, we must understand how power and politics creates conflict.
Often we hear that conflicts are evolving too fast for us to understand or address them. Conflicts are evolving, changing and growing. But they are also both understandable and predictable. The secret is to know about power and how it creates competition.
Yet, conflict is not a reversal of economic development, and the forms and locations of disorder in the past 10 years (at least) underscores that our association of poverty and state failure and conflict produced blinders, not solutions, to the scourge of violence. This disputes what is perhaps the most important finding of conflict literature which is that per-capita income is systematically and negatively associated with civil war. This is not true. Conflict is not a development problem. it does not come from the poor seeking to rectify their problems. Conflict is a political problem, and it occurs between those with something to lose. It is between the political strong, not the poor or politically excluded.
Conflict vastly changed since the end of the cold war, and our explanations for ongoing violence were completely apolitical. VERSUS challenged that interpretation, linking new forms of conflict to inclusion, elite status and growing economic opportunities.
● Why is it important for society?
VERSUS asks how the composition and competition within governments in developing countries can assist researchers, governments, policy makers and practitioners in understanding how crises develop. It provides updated details on the composition of leadership in crisis and democratizing states; it develops accessible models to understand the conditions that lead to uncertainty, and it describes the governing logic of states.
It is important because
When politicians, policy makers, analysts and the public know this information, they can explain and understand why there is conflict in poorly developed countries, and why conflict looks the way it does. For example, election violence is common, but it often looks quite different across countries – even those with similar political systems. The reason—as we found across Versus- is that the layers of power and contest create centers of competition
We also learned that many countries with a dictatorial regime actually have leaders who spend a considerable amount of time managing their own elites, so that they can survive in power.
● What are the overall objectives and conclusions
The overall objectives of VERSUS is to link the domestic politics of African and unstable states to the crises that occur therein. There is little known or researched about the general patterns of domestic political behaviour, composition of government and strategies of political survival across African states; this has led to serious misdiagnosis in which crisis happens and how it evolves. VERSUS advanced this field through testing theories of governance and structure, composition and elite actions. It explained why we see the types of government we do across states, and what conflict vulnerabilities those governments generate.
The conclusions of the project are that conflict is widespread, varied and often beneficial to elites-- if violence can influence a political goal, someone will use it. Political competition causes conflict-- the more inclusive the political system, the more competition. External powers have interests, not preferred outcomes—leading to many supporting non-state armed groups. Groups and elites respond to the ‘violence market’—it is helpful to think of conflict as a business with rules to maximize market share. Impunity is far more important than grievance in generating conflict. Conflict isn’t a breakdown in governance: it is a feature of modern governance and political change. Finally, data can tell us how bad it is, but data are not an oracle and cannot suggest fixes
Through VERSUS, we have shifted the academic conversation about conflict and the public discussion. Our overtly political lens for conflict is now incorporated into many government analyses of violence.
1) Created Version 1 of the African political elite and cabinet dataset (ACPED). Covering 23 countries. This was published, presented at several workshops and conferences, and led to its use in the Mo Ibrahim Governance Quality indicator. Several public newspaper articles appeared in African newspapers about it. An journal article was also published and these data were incorporated into several dissertations.
2) Began ACPED version 2 to be extended to all of Africa. Currently comprises 37 countries. Another journal article prepared and presentation will be through the African Development Bank.
3) Completed an article introducing ACPED. Widely read and presented several times.
4) Completed fieldwork and elite census of Sierra Leone; detailing a period of significant political activity in this country, and securing a place in the public book from the project.
5) Completed fieldwork and elite census of Zimbabwe; presented and discussed in a workshop and presentation in Harare. These data led to an advisory position with the EU delegation in Harare, a book chapter, a dissertation with Helen Morris, and a recently completed article on violence in Zimbabwe. During the coup of Mugabe, these data were used in a Washington Post Op-ed on the instability.
6) Completed fieldwork and elite census of Yemen. This led to several articles, book chapters, presentation, information exchanges (including presenting material to the exiled president of Yemen), a dissertation by Andrea Carboni and several up stream advisory projects. Also a chapter in the upcoming book.
7) Completed fieldwork and elite census of Cote D’Ivoire. The basis of Kars Brunijne’s work, an article and several advisory pieces, coupled with an election prediction mapping project.
8) Completed fieldwork and elite census of South Sudan. Led to several articles, including on gerrymandering and the South Sudanese political geography. A workshop on South Sudan brought together political figures and academics concentrated in this area. This remains the most complete architecture of the South Sudanese system.
9) Completed fieldwork and elite census of Kenya, leading to several articles in and around the political upheaval and the election. A workshop brought together political figures and academics concentrated in this area.
10) Completed fieldwork and elite census of Ethiopia- generating an architecture of the Ethiopian system, an investigation of party politics in two major regions; an article about the geography of federalism that led to a presentation
11) Completed extensive fieldwork in Ethiopia during the pandemic. Now engaging directly with human rights organizations in Ethiopia and regional party politics.
12) Completed two PhDs; one defended (another to defend in Summer 2020)
13) Started two PhDs
14) Completed a “Yemeni Experts Meeting” in summer 2019- this led to further engagement with Yemeni partners and experts; it brought significant information into the dissertation for Carboni, and led to several articles and expert information sessions.
15) Completed a “Kenyan Political Experts Meeting” in summer 2018. This was central to establishing the current governments structure
16) Completed a second “Kenyan political Experts Meeting” in early 2019- to reinforce the information and broaden the county information
17) Completed a “South Sudan Experts Meeting” in summer 2018, leading to a comprehensive understanding of the structure of that government and the respective role of research around politics and violence in South Sudan
18) Completed a “Ugandan Experts Meeting” in Winter 2018, leading to significant information on the practices of the Ugandan political system, and the MPs (including their attrition rate
19) Completed several manuscripts as documented (see below), concentrating on the link between the structure of regimes, the population of those appointments and positions, and their link to conflict and violence geography and intensity.
20) Completed and finalizing several working papers and special issue (see below)- including on sub national geography of conflict and alignment politics.
21) Created an elites and network website – available as one stop area for all work related to this project.
22) Created a public website with VERSUS materials and ACPED data download options, updated frequently.
23) Engaged in several international meetings to present work on Versus- and including follow on advisory sessions, including advising the European Union on conflict and political patterns in Ethiopia and Zimbabwe, and the US government for advice in Ethiopia and Sudan. The West African countries (including CtDI and Sierra Leone) had extensive engagement for advice and strategic planning information for EU states on invitation.
24) Approached by Penguin publishing to consider a public book on ‘power and conflict’- completing this book which will include an acknowledgement to the Versus project
25) Approached by the EU to develop a ‘Horn of Africa’ conflict observatory that focused on politics and conflict across the Horn. This was supported by the work previously uncovered about the structure of politics in each country and its application to conflict
We expect that these data and new models of African politics will have a tremendous effect on African research and knowledge sharing across African researchers.
Please see above for grant's conclusions, and note that two main 'beyond' the state of the art include:
being approached by Penguin publishing to consider a public book on ‘power and conflict’- completing this book which will include an acknowledgement to the Versus project
and being approached by the EU to develop a ‘Horn of Africa’ conflict observatory that focused on politics and conflict across the Horn. This was supported by the work previously uncovered about the structure of politics in each country and its application to conflict. Another series of observatories are being developed under the US to also encompass politics and conflict in Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar and Ethiopia.
Overall, this project has provided the foundations to change how people understand and mitigate violence in developing states.