Periodic Reporting for period 4 - EmpoweredLifeYears (The Demography of Sustainable Human Wellbeing)
Reporting period: 2022-05-01 to 2023-10-31
This ambitious project addresses the very core of Sustainable Development (SD) as popularized by the Brundtland Commission and politically enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and which has been the explicit focus of sustainability science. It directly addresses the “ultimate end” (in the terminology of Donella Meadows) of SD by developing a tailor-made wellbeing indicator that can be used as sustainability criterion.
In sustainability science there is broad agreement that the trend of human wellbeing (W) over time should serve as sustainability criterion. It often centers around an equation in which W is determined as a function of a set of capitals (natural, human, economic) as well as knowledge and institutions. The literature so far has mostly addressed this function in terms of the determinants of wellbeing and the change over time in the different capitals contributing to “inclusive wealth” rather than focusing on the trends in W itself. This ERC project addresses W itself by developing an indicator of W that can be assessed in its trend over time for different populations (sub-populations) of interest.
There is broad agreement that an indicator for W should have multiple constituents, clearly going beyond GDP. However, the research community is divided into some that the prefer to focus exclusively on objective indicators based on empirically observed data (such as the Human Development Index) and others that think that only subjective assessments (such as happiness and life satisfaction scores) provide valid measures about how people themselves rate their wellbeing. The wellbeing indicator developed under this project tries to incorporate both the subjective and objective dimension of wellbeing. It is a tailor-made indicator following the specification of seven explicit desiderata that should be met (see specification below). The indicator, Years of Good Life (YoGL), is also based on the evident fact that in order to be able to enjoy any quality of life, one has to be alive. But since mere survival is not considered as good enough, life years are counted conditional on meeting minimum standards on the objective dimension of capable longevity (being out of absolute poverty and enjoying minimal levels of physical and cognitive health) and the subjective dimension of life satisfaction. In the first part of the project, we dealt with the definition and operationalization of the criteria, with data requirements, inter-temporal dynamics, and provided illustrations for (sub-) populations at different stages of development. In the following steps the inter-cultural acceptability of the indicator and its determinants have been addressed.
In sustainability science there is broad agreement that the trend of human wellbeing (W) over time should serve as sustainability criterion. It often centers around an equation in which W is determined as a function of a set of capitals (natural, human, economic) as well as knowledge and institutions. The literature so far has mostly addressed this function in terms of the determinants of wellbeing and the change over time in the different capitals contributing to “inclusive wealth” rather than focusing on the trends in W itself. This ERC project addresses W itself by developing an indicator of W that can be assessed in its trend over time for different populations (sub-populations) of interest.
There is broad agreement that an indicator for W should have multiple constituents, clearly going beyond GDP. However, the research community is divided into some that the prefer to focus exclusively on objective indicators based on empirically observed data (such as the Human Development Index) and others that think that only subjective assessments (such as happiness and life satisfaction scores) provide valid measures about how people themselves rate their wellbeing. The wellbeing indicator developed under this project tries to incorporate both the subjective and objective dimension of wellbeing. It is a tailor-made indicator following the specification of seven explicit desiderata that should be met (see specification below). The indicator, Years of Good Life (YoGL), is also based on the evident fact that in order to be able to enjoy any quality of life, one has to be alive. But since mere survival is not considered as good enough, life years are counted conditional on meeting minimum standards on the objective dimension of capable longevity (being out of absolute poverty and enjoying minimal levels of physical and cognitive health) and the subjective dimension of life satisfaction. In the first part of the project, we dealt with the definition and operationalization of the criteria, with data requirements, inter-temporal dynamics, and provided illustrations for (sub-) populations at different stages of development. In the following steps the inter-cultural acceptability of the indicator and its determinants have been addressed.
The description of work given below relates to the project components chart from the original work plan. Part A on theoretical foundations and definitions of the new indicator (which is now called YoGL – Years of Good Life ) followed the specification of seven desiderata: 1. The indicator should be based on the key elements of wellbeing that are widely accepted across cultures and sub-populations; 2. It needs to explicitly include the length of life in order to avoid optimization through elimination of people at the lower end of the distribution (such as poorer or less healthy people); 3. It needs to be based on individual characteristics that can be aggregated to the sub-populations of interest, e.g. differentiated by gender, ethnic or other characteristics (this implies that that indicators based on national accounting such as HDI do not qualify); 4; the indicator should be theory based and not reflect arbitrary weighting schemes, such as equal weights for different dimensions; 5. It should be comparable over time and across (sub-) populations; 6. There should be sufficient empirical information to already apply it to a wide range of populations; and 7. If possible it should have a real life analogy and not just be an abstract number.
The resulting tailer-made indicator of “Years of Good Life (YoGL)” has been introduced and illustrated in a summary paper in PNAS entitled “Years of Good Life (YoGL) is a wellbeing indicator designed to serve research on sustainability” (Lutz et al 2021).
Part B concerning the empirical estimation of constituents and determinants around the world has collected extensive data sets to estimate the determination of YoGL in the very long run and including possible feedbacks on human wellbeing of changes in the economy and the economy, social development including education and different aspects of the changing environment including water, land use, climate change and other environmental dimensions. The interaction of these factors and their effects on the different constituents of YoGl have been assessed in the context of reduced form global systems model entitled DemoFelix. The description of the model and its results has been published as part of the IIASA Report “Systems Analysis for sustainable wellbeing” (Lutz and Pachauri, eds. 2023) which was also presented at an official side event of the UN General Assembly in September 2023 which was at the same time the SDG mid-term review.
Part C consisted of extensive scenario analyses following the general approach of the SSPs (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) that are now widely used in the context of climate change related analyses and widely referenced in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). It also included the development of special policy scenarios such a scenario focusing primarily on global female empowerment through universal female secondary education (Lutz and Pachauri eds. 2023).
Parts D and E (in-depth case studies) looked first on the historical development in Finland with reconstructed times series of YoGL back to 1860 documented in a paper published in the Yearbook of Population Research in Finland entitled (Reiter and Lutz 2020). The other case studies on Costa Rica, Nepal and the Western Cape Province of South Africa focused primarily on the intercultural acceptability of YoGL as a measure of wellbeing. They included among many other analyses of a set of focus group discussions in each of the chosen locations which broadly confirmed the choice of the YoGL dimensions as the key aspect that matter to the wellbeing of people in very different cultures and settings. Additional dimensions of wellbeing such as the importance of security and family relations were identified and discussed and are assumed to be covered by the broader umbrella concept of overall life satisfaction. A paper on these findings is forthcoming.
The resulting tailer-made indicator of “Years of Good Life (YoGL)” has been introduced and illustrated in a summary paper in PNAS entitled “Years of Good Life (YoGL) is a wellbeing indicator designed to serve research on sustainability” (Lutz et al 2021).
Part B concerning the empirical estimation of constituents and determinants around the world has collected extensive data sets to estimate the determination of YoGL in the very long run and including possible feedbacks on human wellbeing of changes in the economy and the economy, social development including education and different aspects of the changing environment including water, land use, climate change and other environmental dimensions. The interaction of these factors and their effects on the different constituents of YoGl have been assessed in the context of reduced form global systems model entitled DemoFelix. The description of the model and its results has been published as part of the IIASA Report “Systems Analysis for sustainable wellbeing” (Lutz and Pachauri, eds. 2023) which was also presented at an official side event of the UN General Assembly in September 2023 which was at the same time the SDG mid-term review.
Part C consisted of extensive scenario analyses following the general approach of the SSPs (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) that are now widely used in the context of climate change related analyses and widely referenced in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). It also included the development of special policy scenarios such a scenario focusing primarily on global female empowerment through universal female secondary education (Lutz and Pachauri eds. 2023).
Parts D and E (in-depth case studies) looked first on the historical development in Finland with reconstructed times series of YoGL back to 1860 documented in a paper published in the Yearbook of Population Research in Finland entitled (Reiter and Lutz 2020). The other case studies on Costa Rica, Nepal and the Western Cape Province of South Africa focused primarily on the intercultural acceptability of YoGL as a measure of wellbeing. They included among many other analyses of a set of focus group discussions in each of the chosen locations which broadly confirmed the choice of the YoGL dimensions as the key aspect that matter to the wellbeing of people in very different cultures and settings. Additional dimensions of wellbeing such as the importance of security and family relations were identified and discussed and are assumed to be covered by the broader umbrella concept of overall life satisfaction. A paper on these findings is forthcoming.
The newly introduced and tailor-made indicator Years of Good Life is the only existing indicator meeting all seven desiderata described above. It also bridges the divide between objective and subjective indicators. In this sense this new indicator can claim to be the most advanced and “best on the market”. In terms of its intercultural acceptability, it has gone through more scrutiny than most other indicators and the various focus groups and scientific discussion in different parts of the world could establish almost universal relevance and acceptability. The project also pioneered the use of this multi-dimensional wellbeing indicator as the outcome variable in global systems modelling and thus the criterion for sustainable development.