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Developing a Bayesian technique to evaluate the validity of economic models: two applications to the Euro Area

Objective

The 2007 financial crisis and the 2009 European sovereign debt crisis highlighted how difficult it is to build models that capture the dynamics of the economic system. The project develops a model evaluation technique that allows a researcher to assess how much the economic models of interest to a researcher are supported by the data. The innovative technique set out in the project is developed in order to assist policy-makers address a wide variety of research questions, and to help them achieve their goals – for example, predicting the impact of interest rate changes on a country’s economy. Two applications to monetary policy by the European Central Bank are developed. The first application studies whether the data support a class of economic models used to assess monetary policy. The second application studies how successful monetary policy has been in counteracting deflationary pressures in the Euro Area.

The fellowship will help me to pursue a career that applies an academic focus to policy-oriented research questions. Queen Mary is the ideal place to achieve this goal, because it is one of the best universities in the field of Applied Econometrics. Having already developed an academic approach to research during my PhD in Economics and having recently started working on policy questions as a postdoctoral fellow, I now aim to combine these two experiences. The fellowship will help me to gain the skills in Applied Econometrics that I need for the successful implementation of the project, and to begin a career that focuses on the application of Applied Econometrics to policy questions. I will achieve this goal by working with my supervisor Professor Haroon Mumtaz, who has developed significant knowledge at the intersection of academic and policy research through his experience at the Bank of England before he joined academia. Working with him, and with other scholars at Queen Mary University, will be a unique opportunity for the development of my career.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

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Programme(s)

Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.

Topic(s)

Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.

Funding Scheme

Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.

MSCA-IF-EF-ST - Standard EF

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Call for proposal

Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.

(opens in new window) H2020-MSCA-IF-2016

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Coordinator

QUEEN MARY UNIVERSITY OF LONDON
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 183 454,80
Address
327 MILE END ROAD
E1 4NS LONDON
United Kingdom

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Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Links
Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

€ 183 454,80
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