Periodic Reporting for period 2 - EU-LISTCO (Europe's External Action and the Dual Challenges of Limited Statehood and Contested Orders)
Reporting period: 2019-03-01 to 2021-04-30
EU-LISTCO set out to analyze when areas of limited statehood (ALS) and contested orders (CO) in the EU’s Southern and Eastern neighbourhood turn into threats for EU security. ALS are areas in which central government authorities and institutions are too weak to set and enforce rules and/or do not control the monopoly over the means of violence. Contested orders refers to situations in which state and non-state actors challenge the norms, principles, and rules according to which societies and political systems are or should be organized. The project asked 1) under which conditions do ALS and CO deteriorate into governance breakdown and violent conflict, and 2) how can the preparedness of the EU and its member states to foster resilience in the neighbourhood be strengthened.
EU-LISTCO research objectives were scientific as well as policy-oriented:
• Study the conditions for the deterioration of ALS/CO into governance breakdown and violent conflict.
• Examine the sources of resilience that may mitigate risks from escalating into threats.
• Analyze the impact of global and diffuse risks on the likelihood of governance breakdown and violent conflict, identifying tipping points at which the latter may occur.
• Research how order contestations affect ALS and, vice versa, when and how ALS fuel order contestations.
• Assess the preparedness of the EU and its member to foster resilience in ALS/CO.
• Elaborate on success and failure cases in the EU’s dealings with the challenges and risks of ALS/CO.
Through close collaboration with its practice partners — the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of France, Germany, and Italy as well as the European External Action Service — EU-LISTCO has ensured that its research has immediate policy relevance and impact.
EU-LISTCO research objectives were scientific as well as policy-oriented:
• Study the conditions for the deterioration of ALS/CO into governance breakdown and violent conflict.
• Examine the sources of resilience that may mitigate risks from escalating into threats.
• Analyze the impact of global and diffuse risks on the likelihood of governance breakdown and violent conflict, identifying tipping points at which the latter may occur.
• Research how order contestations affect ALS and, vice versa, when and how ALS fuel order contestations.
• Assess the preparedness of the EU and its member to foster resilience in ALS/CO.
• Elaborate on success and failure cases in the EU’s dealings with the challenges and risks of ALS/CO.
Through close collaboration with its practice partners — the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of France, Germany, and Italy as well as the European External Action Service — EU-LISTCO has ensured that its research has immediate policy relevance and impact.
The project has developed an innovative theoretical framework that lays out how societal resilience can prevent ALS/CO from deteriorating into governance breakdown and violent conflict (Figure 1). Societal resilience is a society’s adaptive and transformative capacity to successfully cope with and recover from crises. The project theorizes the concept of societal resilience in an empirically applicable way and avoids the state-centrism that is often prevalent in studies on ALS/CO. By considering ALS/CO as default conditions in the EU neighbourhood, EU-LISTCO offers a new perspective for EU foreign and security policy.
The project’s main findings overall are that societal resilience is a key mechanism to prevent governance breakdown and violent conflict in the EU’s neighbourhood. There are three primary sources of resilience: Social trust within societies and communities, legitimacy of (state and non-state) governance actors, as well as effective, fair, and inclusive governance institutions. These three sources can increase the likelihood that societies are able to deal with diverse risks and are able to peacefully adapt to them. Lastly, external actors seeking to foster resilience need to factor in long-time horizons, in-depth local knowledge, and a clearly designed strategy. Assessing the EU’s resilience-building strategies with these criteria, it becomes evident that the EU has a mixed record of success.
EU-LISTCO undertook several approaches to its study of resilience. The project developed cutting-edge quantitative and qualitative empirical methods for risk-scanning, foresight and forecasting. This included large-scale statistical prediction of conflict as well as development of in-depth qualitative risk scenarios. EU-LISTCO identified six risk clusters: (1) geopolitical rivalry and risks of major armed conflict; (2) unconventional security risks; (3) biological and environmental risks; (4) demography and uncontrolled migration; (5) global financial and other systemic economic risks, and; (6) technology-driven disruption.
The project ultimately found that there are three types of tipping points at which ALS/CO may deteriorate into governance breakdown or violent conflict: 1. One-time catastrophic events (the sudden demise of key political leader, a geological disaster, or an unexpected external attack with large-scale impact); 2. Cascading factors (extreme weather, water scarcity, and uncontrolled migration); 3. Layered factors (rapid urbanization, climate vulnerability and sharp economic downturn; or violent extremism, pandemic and migration). Being aware of these pathways might allow EU policy planners to be more effectively prepared for potential governance breakdown or violent conflict in ALS/CO.
EU-LISTCO conducted large-scale comparative case studies in the Eastern and the Southern neighbourhood, emphasizing five focus countries: Libya, Mali, Tunisia, Georgia and Ukraine. Looking at local, regional, and international dynamics across these countries, the studies suggested a strong reciprocal relationship between ALS and CO. In the Eastern neighbourhood, CO have largely created ALS, whereas in the Southern neighbourhood, ALS have invited CO.
The project also studied the EU and select member states’ preparedness in anticipating, preventing, and responding to threats of violent conflict and governance breakdown in these countries and evaluated the resilience-building record of their policies. It found that the objective of fostering resilience has been successfully integrated at the level of policy goals and discourse. However, several difficulties or limitations remain when it comes to policy design, the mobilization of policy resources, and policy implementation.
To inform policy-makers, academia, and the public about its research findings, EU-LISTCO engaged in wide array of dissemination activities. Through the project’s website, working paper series, policy brief series, academic articles, newsletters, and targeted mailings as well as its Twitter and Facebook presences, it disseminated its research widely.
The project’s main findings overall are that societal resilience is a key mechanism to prevent governance breakdown and violent conflict in the EU’s neighbourhood. There are three primary sources of resilience: Social trust within societies and communities, legitimacy of (state and non-state) governance actors, as well as effective, fair, and inclusive governance institutions. These three sources can increase the likelihood that societies are able to deal with diverse risks and are able to peacefully adapt to them. Lastly, external actors seeking to foster resilience need to factor in long-time horizons, in-depth local knowledge, and a clearly designed strategy. Assessing the EU’s resilience-building strategies with these criteria, it becomes evident that the EU has a mixed record of success.
EU-LISTCO undertook several approaches to its study of resilience. The project developed cutting-edge quantitative and qualitative empirical methods for risk-scanning, foresight and forecasting. This included large-scale statistical prediction of conflict as well as development of in-depth qualitative risk scenarios. EU-LISTCO identified six risk clusters: (1) geopolitical rivalry and risks of major armed conflict; (2) unconventional security risks; (3) biological and environmental risks; (4) demography and uncontrolled migration; (5) global financial and other systemic economic risks, and; (6) technology-driven disruption.
The project ultimately found that there are three types of tipping points at which ALS/CO may deteriorate into governance breakdown or violent conflict: 1. One-time catastrophic events (the sudden demise of key political leader, a geological disaster, or an unexpected external attack with large-scale impact); 2. Cascading factors (extreme weather, water scarcity, and uncontrolled migration); 3. Layered factors (rapid urbanization, climate vulnerability and sharp economic downturn; or violent extremism, pandemic and migration). Being aware of these pathways might allow EU policy planners to be more effectively prepared for potential governance breakdown or violent conflict in ALS/CO.
EU-LISTCO conducted large-scale comparative case studies in the Eastern and the Southern neighbourhood, emphasizing five focus countries: Libya, Mali, Tunisia, Georgia and Ukraine. Looking at local, regional, and international dynamics across these countries, the studies suggested a strong reciprocal relationship between ALS and CO. In the Eastern neighbourhood, CO have largely created ALS, whereas in the Southern neighbourhood, ALS have invited CO.
The project also studied the EU and select member states’ preparedness in anticipating, preventing, and responding to threats of violent conflict and governance breakdown in these countries and evaluated the resilience-building record of their policies. It found that the objective of fostering resilience has been successfully integrated at the level of policy goals and discourse. However, several difficulties or limitations remain when it comes to policy design, the mobilization of policy resources, and policy implementation.
To inform policy-makers, academia, and the public about its research findings, EU-LISTCO engaged in wide array of dissemination activities. Through the project’s website, working paper series, policy brief series, academic articles, newsletters, and targeted mailings as well as its Twitter and Facebook presences, it disseminated its research widely.
Overall, EU-LISTCO produced research results further developing the state of the art on EU foreign and security policy.
Analytically, EU-LISTCO developed an innovative conceptual framework that theorizes how societal resilience can help prevent governance breakdown and violent conflict in the EU’s Eastern and Southern neighbourhoods. The empirical application of the framework allows for further developing analytical research on EU foreign and security policy as an immediate impact.
Empirically, broad data collection and analysis was carried out through qualitative and quantitative research, offering diverse data sources to understand governance breakdown and violent conflict. This includes re-usable datasets on quantitative risk assessment tools as well as lessons learned on using mixed-method foresight methodologies. The impacts are cutting-edge empirical results that stimulate academic debates on EU foreign and security policy and help practice partners build capacity in this regard.
Policy-wise, EU-LISTCO has developed a wide policy network and close cooperation with practice partners. New formats and channels of exchange between academia and policy were developed, such as the scholars-in-residence format and joint platforms for exchange.
Societally, the project actively contributed to fostering debates on EU foreign and security policy by making its research publicly available through the dissemination channels already noted. Given the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, EU-LISTCO pivoted its events to virtual formats and utilized YouTube for live-casting several public events.
Analytically, EU-LISTCO developed an innovative conceptual framework that theorizes how societal resilience can help prevent governance breakdown and violent conflict in the EU’s Eastern and Southern neighbourhoods. The empirical application of the framework allows for further developing analytical research on EU foreign and security policy as an immediate impact.
Empirically, broad data collection and analysis was carried out through qualitative and quantitative research, offering diverse data sources to understand governance breakdown and violent conflict. This includes re-usable datasets on quantitative risk assessment tools as well as lessons learned on using mixed-method foresight methodologies. The impacts are cutting-edge empirical results that stimulate academic debates on EU foreign and security policy and help practice partners build capacity in this regard.
Policy-wise, EU-LISTCO has developed a wide policy network and close cooperation with practice partners. New formats and channels of exchange between academia and policy were developed, such as the scholars-in-residence format and joint platforms for exchange.
Societally, the project actively contributed to fostering debates on EU foreign and security policy by making its research publicly available through the dissemination channels already noted. Given the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, EU-LISTCO pivoted its events to virtual formats and utilized YouTube for live-casting several public events.