Prediction of Air Pollution in Latin America

Project Information

PAPILA

Grant agreement ID: 777544

DOI

10.3030/777544

Project closed

EC signature date 21 November 2017

Start date 1 January 2018

End date 31 October 2023

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Total cost

€ 999 000,00

EU contribution

€ 999 000,00

Coordinated by

MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FORDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN EV
Germany

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - PAPILA (Prediction of Air Pollution in Latin America)

Reporting period: 2020-01-01 to 2023-10-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

Each year, three million people die prematurely in the world because of outdoor air pollution. The overall objective of the PAPILA project (Prediction of Air Pollution in Latin America and the Caribbean) is therefore to establish a sustained network of partners with complementary expertise that develop and implement an analysis and forecast system for air quality with downscaling capability for Latin America and the Caribbean region (LAC region), and to assess the impact of air pollution (background and peaks) on health and on the economy. This system will help decision-makers improve air quality and public health, and avoid the occurrence of acute air pollution episodes, particularly in urban areas.

The project combines an ensemble of state-of-the-art models, high-resolution emission inventories, space observations and surface measurements to provide ability for near real time forecasts and analysis of regional air pollution in the LAC region. To reach this objective, the project brought together an interdisciplinary team of scientists from Europe, Latin America (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela) and the Caribbean (Puerto Rico), and fostered synergies between the groups involved in research and service activities. The project co-develops several products and services of importance for the LAC region. An important objective of the project is to make use of complementary competence to develop innovative ideas, to establish sustained partnerships between research groups, to transfer information to the public, to develop educational activities and to create a dialogue with interested stakeholders. The project activities also aim to provide the basis for sustained capacity building actions.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

The products development by the Papila Project include: (a) a state-of-the-art multi-model air quality prediction system with ability of providing quasi-operational forecasts of the four dimensional distribution of air pollutants (reactive species and particulate matter) and related health indices, (b) a prototype of real-time (quasi-operational) chemical data system that collects and processes observations of air pollutants; (c) an emission inventory based on direct “bottom-up” estimates of anthropogenic sources in the LAC region (following the efforts undertaken by Andrade et al., 2016), (d) dissemination platforms that will release daily “chemical weather” forecasts with quantified uncertainties, and (e) exchanges and transfer of results to national and international agencies.

The results produced by Papila include:

(1) A prototype for air quality predictions and related air quality health indices in Latin America and the Caribbean region (LAC region) with spatial resolutions of typically 20 km. These prototype predictions include the regional distributions of primary chemical species (NOx, CO, VOCs, SO2, particle matter (PM) including dust and black carbon), of secondary species (ozone, sulphate, secondary organic aerosols, etc.) and health indices.
(2) A series of collaborations to improve measurements made at different observing stations in the Andes, specifically near La Paz in Bolivia, and in Venezuela. These data help in the evaluation of model simulations.
(3) The development of the Papila emissions inventory which includes CO, NOx, NMVOCs, NH3, and SO2 annual emissions from anthropogenic sources over the LAC region for the period 2014–2016, with a spatial resolution of 0.1∘ × 0.1∘.
(4) The analysis of space observations and specifically of the measurement of NO2 made by the TROPOMI satellite at high spatial resolution (typically 5 km)
(5) The development of educational activities and capacity building efforts related to air pollution through local meetings and the organization of a summer school.
(6) The successful exchange of scientists between Europe and Latin America and the development of a new research community in South America with a real partnership aimed at long-term cooperation

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

During the project, work has focused on the development of emission inventories in Latin America, on the development of regional models able to forecast air pollution, and on the gathering of observations collected at different experimental stations in different countries. The first regional models operating at a spatial resolution of 20 km over the entire Latin American region have been developed and have been tested. Several models have been used to intercompare regional air quality forecasts. An ensemble of forecasts has been established, with the purpose of constituting a pre-operational multi-model forecast system for Latin America. A new global model with downscale capability has been developed and applied for the entire south American continent. Finally, one of the most important outcomes of the project is the development of a new research community composed of scientists from different Latin American countries who are now working actively together in a collaborative framework with strong connections with different modeling groups in Europe.

4: Observation of the NO2 column density over the entire Latin American region

1: A view of the air pollution over the city of Santiago, Chile

3: Prediction of NO2 surface mixing ratio over the entire Latin American region with a region

5: High resolution observation of the NO2 column in the urban area of La Paz, Bolivia