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Reducing required sample size of new studies by effectively using historical data: new methods for evaluating mechanisms, conditions, and alternative explanations

Objective

Scientists, organizations, and governments are moving in the direction of sharing their data. This will lead to an unprecedented amount of available data that researchers could use as prior information in a Bayesian analysis. While Bayesian methods are a promising method for using the growing amount of available information to increase statistical power in research studies, there is a great need for developing guidelines for calibrating existing data to create accurate informative prior distributions.
Bayesian methods that incorporate accurate prior information in the statistical analysis reduce the required sample size of the new study without decreasing the chance of detecting a true effect. However, prior data may be from a different population, measured using different instruments, and/or collected using different experimental procedures than those in the current study. Using the results from a prior study that differs from the current study in any of these respects as prior information in a Bayesian analysis can lead to biased results.
Several promising calibration methods have been proposed for linear regression analysis. In this project I will extend and test these methods to models with third variables that reveal the conditions under which an effect exists (moderators), the mechanism through which one variable affects another (mediators), and variables that might explain an observed effect (confounders).
I will develop guidelines and tools for social science researchers in numerous fields ranging from psychology and pedagogics to education and epidemiology for proper calibration of data from previous studies when evaluating the conditions under which an effect exists, the mechanism through which one variable affects another, and alternative explanations for an observed effect. These calibration methods will reduce required sample sizes in new studies, thus reducing required funds for data collection, and the burden on the researchers and participants.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

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Keywords

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Programme(s)

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Topic(s)

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Funding Scheme

Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.

MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)

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Call for proposal

Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.

(opens in new window) H2020-MSCA-IF-2017

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Coordinator

UNIVERSITEIT UTRECHT
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 165 598,80
Address
HEIDELBERGLAAN 8
3584 CS Utrecht
Netherlands

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Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Links
Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

€ 165 598,80
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