Periodic Reporting for period 1 - NonlinearEBM (Nonlinearity of Key Economic and Environmental Variables in Coastal/Marine Ecosystem-Based Management (EBM))
Reporting period: 2018-09-01 to 2020-08-31
The occurrence of pharmaceuticals and other micropollutants in our water bodies worldwide is well known. It is widely acknowledged that most of these enter the environment via our wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), mainly due to inability of existing technologies to remove them from then wastewater stream and pollution caused by some pharmaceuticals presents substantial risk to the environment and human health (e.g leading to antimicrobial resistance). Residues of several pharmaceuticals have been found in surface and ground waters, soils and animal tissues worldwide at varying concentrations, including certain painkillers, antimicrobials, antidepressants, contraceptives and antiparasitics. The purpose of this study is to quantify the shape of a trade-off between investment in technology in WWTP and the potential for pharmaceutical bioaccumulation in marine organisms in Southern Baltic (North Europe: Skane (Sweden), Mecklenburg (Germany), Klaipeda (Lithuania) and Pomerania (Poland)). Lack of data leads to an assumption that the concentration of the pharmaceuticals in marine organism tissues changes LINEARLY depending on the pharmaceutical concentration after wastewater treatment at the WWTPs. If incorrect, such assumption can lead to a significant OVER- or UNDER-estimation of the human impact on coastal/marine ecosystems. This project aims to provide a quantitative, science-based foundation/roadmap for controlling the pharmaceutical pollution and optimizing the use of financial resources for the coastal natural capital conservation.
Originally this study was designed to focus on mercury (Hg), lead (Pb) and Cadmium (Cd), three heavy metals that are of primary concern in European marine environments because of their toxicity and ability to bio-accumulate/bio-concentrate in marine organisms/humans. During the first phase of the project I secured access to data from a 2011 paper on heavy metal concentration gradient along the proposed focus area, the industrial Klaipeda port. I also established a direct contact with the Coastal Water Quality Model (CWQ model) developers at Stanford University. I conducted an initial calibration of the CWQ model specific to Hg, Pb, Cd and Klaipeda coastal water, and based on the real-world heavy metal industrial discharge data available, the CWQ model was used to generate heavy metal concentration map. The model output was compared with the real-life heavy metal concentration data from 2006-2008 to ensure its accuracy in reflecting local marine physical transport and biogeochemical processes; the model was adjusted/calibrated until the model's generated values reflected the available field data.
However, during initial investigations, heavy metals were found to be inappropriate for this study as most heavy metals originate from the non-point sources (e.g. historical accumulation of heavy metals in coastal sludge, commercial activities of the port or its leakage from old ships), making the application of the proposed technological solution almost impossible.
As such, this study was refocused towards pharmaceuticals and other micropollutants. It is widely considered that most of these enter the environment via our wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), and they present significant potential risk to the environment and human health (e.g. increased antimicrobial resistance). In December 2019 an international study (MORPHEUS) funded by the EC was completed by Kristianstad University, University of Rostock, Gdansk University of Technology and Klaipeda University, with a focus on four key field sites of Southern Baltic: Skane (Sweden), Mecklenburg (Germany), Klaipeda (Lithuania) and Pomerania (Poland).
During the second phase of the project the following work was conducted: (1) established the partnership with the key scientists of MORPHEUS project (2) evaluated and selected 14 drugs from five classes: antiinfectives for systemic use; muscolo-skeleton system; nervous system; genito urinary system and sex hormones; cardiovascular system; data on concentration of the drugs along the selected study sites was available based on the MORPHEUS project (3) conducted an initial calibration of the CWQ model specific to the selected drugs and targeted coastal waters in the same selected test sites as the MORPHEUS project; (4) Based on the real-world available drug discharge data, the CWQ model was used to generate pharmaceutical concentration map along the targeted coastal waters; the model output was compared with the real-world drug concentration data from the same collection locations to ensure the model’s accuracy.
An initial calibration (designed for pharmaceutical drugs) of the CAESAR Bioconcentration and KABAM Bioaccumulation Models was conducted. Bioconcentration factor (BCF) describes the likelihood of a chemical concentrating in organisms, when the compound is present in the environment. It is required for regulatory purposes, for example within the REACH and GHS regulations. Bioaccumulation factor (BAF) is similar to BCF but more general term referring to uptake and accumulation of a substance from all sources combined (water, food, etc.) and it is especially important in the scientific evaluation of risks that chemicals may pose to humans and the environment. Since scientific literature data on BAF is less available than on BCF, utilizing both in this study provides better accuracy in results interpretation. Pharmaceutical drugs have a high tendency to bioconcentrate and bioaccumulate in aquatic organisms, including commercial fish, thus creating a substantial health risks to humans who consume the fish. As a result, BAF and BCF could be used as a valid indicators of pharmaceutical drugs' negative effect on fish (and eventually human health).
However, during initial investigations, heavy metals were found to be inappropriate for this study as most heavy metals originate from the non-point sources (e.g. historical accumulation of heavy metals in coastal sludge, commercial activities of the port or its leakage from old ships), making the application of the proposed technological solution almost impossible.
As such, this study was refocused towards pharmaceuticals and other micropollutants. It is widely considered that most of these enter the environment via our wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), and they present significant potential risk to the environment and human health (e.g. increased antimicrobial resistance). In December 2019 an international study (MORPHEUS) funded by the EC was completed by Kristianstad University, University of Rostock, Gdansk University of Technology and Klaipeda University, with a focus on four key field sites of Southern Baltic: Skane (Sweden), Mecklenburg (Germany), Klaipeda (Lithuania) and Pomerania (Poland).
During the second phase of the project the following work was conducted: (1) established the partnership with the key scientists of MORPHEUS project (2) evaluated and selected 14 drugs from five classes: antiinfectives for systemic use; muscolo-skeleton system; nervous system; genito urinary system and sex hormones; cardiovascular system; data on concentration of the drugs along the selected study sites was available based on the MORPHEUS project (3) conducted an initial calibration of the CWQ model specific to the selected drugs and targeted coastal waters in the same selected test sites as the MORPHEUS project; (4) Based on the real-world available drug discharge data, the CWQ model was used to generate pharmaceutical concentration map along the targeted coastal waters; the model output was compared with the real-world drug concentration data from the same collection locations to ensure the model’s accuracy.
An initial calibration (designed for pharmaceutical drugs) of the CAESAR Bioconcentration and KABAM Bioaccumulation Models was conducted. Bioconcentration factor (BCF) describes the likelihood of a chemical concentrating in organisms, when the compound is present in the environment. It is required for regulatory purposes, for example within the REACH and GHS regulations. Bioaccumulation factor (BAF) is similar to BCF but more general term referring to uptake and accumulation of a substance from all sources combined (water, food, etc.) and it is especially important in the scientific evaluation of risks that chemicals may pose to humans and the environment. Since scientific literature data on BAF is less available than on BCF, utilizing both in this study provides better accuracy in results interpretation. Pharmaceutical drugs have a high tendency to bioconcentrate and bioaccumulate in aquatic organisms, including commercial fish, thus creating a substantial health risks to humans who consume the fish. As a result, BAF and BCF could be used as a valid indicators of pharmaceutical drugs' negative effect on fish (and eventually human health).
In applying Ecosystem-Based Management (EBM) approach to current coastal/marine social-ecological systems, it is essential that the key assumptions used in EBM models and Economic & Social Analysis (ESA) are data-verified and evidence-based. If not, the developed models and analyses can mislead and cause more harm than benefits. For example, if linearity among key economic and ecological variables is assumed incorrectly, this could lead to a significant over- or under-estimation of the human impact on coastal/marine ecosystems. Recent significant advances in spatial, GIS-based model development have opened new opportunities for a vigorous testing of assumptions used in EBM approach. For the first time, the proposed study is expected to provide a comprehensive pharmaceutical drug-based data/analysis for a coastal/marine social-ecological system on mathematical relationships among its key economic and ecological variables that are used in EBM modelling and economic & social analysis. Validation of such mathematical relationships/trade-offs is expected to be instrumental in further advancing EBM approach and its practical implication around the world. In addition, results of this study are expected to change the way how pharmaceutical drugs pollution is managed by coastal urban areas that represent a significant portion of EU population. Because of the potential negative side-effects of pharmaceutical drugs being present in the natural environment, their ability to bio-accumulate and bio-concentrate in marine organisms/humans, and its wide presence in industrial wastewater, pharmaceutical drugs pollution management requires upmost scientific validation and justification.