The Rise and Fall of Populism and Extremism

Project Information

EXTREME

Grant agreement ID: 803506

DOI

10.3030/803506

Project closed

EC signature date 8 November 2018

Start date 1 January 2019

End date 30 June 2024

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 1 467 736,00

EU contribution

€ 1 467 736,00

Coordinated by

UNIVERSIDAD POMPEU FABRA
Spain

Periodic Reporting for period 4 - EXTREME (The Rise and Fall of Populism and Extremism)

Reporting period: 2023-07-01 to 2024-06-30

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

The goal of the project is to study how people’s personal histories affect their economic and political behavior, and to study what might affect resistance to extreme political leaders. The project consists of four parts.
In subproject A, we study how individual employment histories influenced redistributive outcomes and voting for Trump. We are using a unique database of more than 40 million resumes from Burning Glass Technologies (BGT), the largest available repository of resumes of job-seekers in the US, and match it with commuting zone-level economic and voting variables. We introduce a new measure of career values to aggregate expected job-related transitions into a single indicator. We then estimate occupational transition matrix to compute average levels of career values in a location, study their heterogeneity by skill level, and relate them to voting behavior. We document career values decline in 2000-2016, and automation and robotization played an important role. Next, we find that low-skilled individuals suffered the most, with their career opportunities deteriorating more than those of high-skilled. We also find that both robotization and career values affected voting for Trump and associated political outcomes in 2016.
In subproject B, we study how negative social experiences during the formative years affect subsequent labor market outcomes, antisocial behavior, and the support of the populist agenda. We examine how corporal punishment in schools in the US affected subsequent educational attainment, employment, antisocial behavior, and voting. We combine the data on corporal punishment with contemporary economic and political outcomes and run our own survey to differentiate between the mechanisms. We find that the abolition of corporal punishment led to worse educational attainment, crime perpetration, and more authoritarian preferences of affected individuals.
In subproject C, we examine what makes people actively resist extremist regimes even at a high personal cost. We study a historical example of resistance to the Nazi regime in Germany during WWII. We use a self-collected dataset on treason cases to measure resistance, combining it with data on bombing and exposure to foreign propaganda. We find that allied bombing led to higher resistance to Nazis and lower morale of the Nazi pilots. We also find important interaction effects with BBC radio.
In subproject D, we study the relationship between populism and complexity. We study if complexity of the environment affects people’s preferences for populism politicians, and if, in turn, populists use simpler policy positions and simpler language in their campaign rhetoric. We find that populists indeed use simpler language and have clear policy positions on fewer issues. Moreover, we find that populists have higher support in times of lower complexity of political environment.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

The goal of the project is to study how people’s personal histories affect their economic and political behavior, and to study what might affect resistance to extreme political leaders. The project consists of four parts.
In subproject A, we study how individual employment histories influenced redistributive outcomes and voting for Trump. We are using a unique database of more than 40 million resumes from Burning Glass Technologies (BGT), the largest available repository of resumes of job-seekers in the US, and match it with commuting zone-level economic and voting variables. We introduce a new measure of career values to aggregate expected job-related transitions into a single indicator. We then estimate occupational transition matrix to compute average levels of career values in a location, study their heterogeneity by skill level, and relate them to voting behavior. We document career values decline in 2000-2016, and automation and robotization played an important role. Next, we find that low-skilled individuals suffered the most, with their career opportunities deteriorating more than those of high-skilled. We also find that both robotization and career values affected voting for Trump and associated political outcomes in 2016.
In subproject B, we study how negative social experiences during the formative years affect subsequent labor market outcomes, antisocial behavior, and the support of the populist agenda. We examine how corporal punishment in schools in the US affected subsequent educational attainment, employment, antisocial behavior, and voting. We combine the data on corporal punishment with contemporary economic and political outcomes and run our own survey to differentiate between the mechanisms. We find that the abolition of corporal punishment led to worse educational attainment, crime perpetration, and more authoritarian preferences of affected individuals.
In subproject C, we examine what makes people actively resist extremist regimes even at a high personal cost. We study a historical example of resistance to the Nazi regime in Germany during WWII. We use a self-collected dataset on treason cases to measure resistance, combining it with data on bombing and exposure to foreign propaganda. We find that allied bombing led to higher resistance to Nazis and lower morale of the Nazi pilots. We also find important interaction effects with BBC radio.
In subproject D, we study the relationship between populism and complexity. We study if complexity of the environment affects people’s preferences for populism politicians, and if, in turn, populists use simpler policy positions and simpler language in their campaign rhetoric. We find that populists indeed use simpler language and have clear policy positions on fewer issues. Moreover, we find that populists have higher support in times of lower complexity of political environment.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

For Subproject A, the contribution is to find out how economic shocks affect career progression and job-related upward mobility as well as the consequences of these changes. We introduced a new concept of career values and estimated them at the level of occupations and commuting zones. We furthermore documented that career values declined in 2000-2016, and that this decline was stronger for low-skilled individuals. We also show that one of the effects of robotization in these years was a decline in career opportunities.
For Subproject B, the contribution is to evaluate the long run consequences of the abolishing of corporal punishment in schools. Our results imply that other ways of maintaining discipline, such as detentions and expulsions, could be even more detrimental for affected children and their classmates.
For Subproject C, the contribution is to document that bombing might have a positive effect on resistance, i. e. move the behavior of people in the direction aligned with the interests of the bombing side. Our results also highlight the importance of information campaign on media to be used together with bombing.
For Subproject D, our results suggests that complexity of the environment drive the complexity of politics. Moreover, we document that populists use simpler speeches, propose simple solutions, and have more support when citizens are interested in fewer issues.

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