Periodic Reporting for period 4 - INTEGRATE (Identifying the Impact of Asylum Polices on Refugee Integration and Political Backlash in Host Communities)
Reporting period: 2023-05-01 to 2023-10-31
Governments across the globe are still struggling to cope with repeated and persistent humanitarian emergencies. For many asylum seekers and refugees, the refugee crisis has turned into an integration crisis with many still waiting for decisions on their asylum applications and struggling to access jobs and a social network in their new home countries. Against this background, we have been conducting much needed research into the impact of various asylum and integration policies in Europe.
The goal of this project is to provide systematic evidence that identifies the causal effects of the key parameters of the asylum process on the short and long-term economic, political and social integration of refugees, their families, and children in selected European countries. Specifically, we examine the impact of wait times, labor market access, geographic placement, language courses, private accommodation, integration contracts, and welfare support, as well as citizenship policies on integration trajectories.
By using causal research designs and recent advances in data science to comprehensively evaluate the asylum process in Europe, we have established actionable evidence base that can be used to redesign the asylum process to improve outcomes for both refugees and host societies. Our findings provide answers to the complex and urgent question of how to best facilitate the integration of increasing numbers or refugees, while mitigating political conflict and native backlash in host communities.
The goal of this project is to provide systematic evidence that identifies the causal effects of the key parameters of the asylum process on the short and long-term economic, political and social integration of refugees, their families, and children in selected European countries. Specifically, we examine the impact of wait times, labor market access, geographic placement, language courses, private accommodation, integration contracts, and welfare support, as well as citizenship policies on integration trajectories.
By using causal research designs and recent advances in data science to comprehensively evaluate the asylum process in Europe, we have established actionable evidence base that can be used to redesign the asylum process to improve outcomes for both refugees and host societies. Our findings provide answers to the complex and urgent question of how to best facilitate the integration of increasing numbers or refugees, while mitigating political conflict and native backlash in host communities.
Over the course of the INTEGRATE project, we have performed work on a range of national asylum and integration policies. We have published several peer-reviewed papers in leading peer-reviewed journals and obtained results on a range of asylum and integration policies in Europe.
In a first paper published in PNAS, we show that recently arrived refugees in Switzerland were more likely to be employed if they lived close to a larger group of people who share their nationality, ethnicity or language. The publication was covered by several news outlets in Switzerland, the US and in Sweden as well as cited in a World Bank report (Schuettler, Kirsten; Caron, Laura. 2020. Jobs Interventions for Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons. Jobs Working Paper; No. 47. World Bank, Washington, DC).
Also in Switzerland, we studied welfare benefit payments and tested whether high welfare benefit municipalities serve as “welfare magnets”. We find very limited evidence that this is the case. The findings were published in the American Journal of Political Science and were presented at academic conferences, in a podcast, and via a press release.
We have further looked into the effects of labour market restrictions and find that restricting refugees' employment opportunities reduces their labor market integration and earnings in the long run. The findings were covered in Swiss news outlets and will be shared further once the paper, which is currently under review, is published.
In France, we have studied the effects of integration contracts and find the integration contract facilitated employment in the short term without backlash but did not translate into long-lasting integration gains. The paper is forthcoming in the American Journal of Political Science. The publication will be accompanied by various dissemination efforts, incl. a press release, and are shared with the Office Français de Protection des Réfugiés et Apatrides (OFPRA), the French government office responsible for processing asylum applications.
In Germany, we have examined the impact of two publicly funded language programs in response to the large increase in the number of asylum seekers in 2015: a rapidly developed, ad hoc program that offered basic language training to over 230,000 newly arrived refugees and a smaller, preexisting program that offered refugees comprehensive language training. We find that the more comprehensive, preexisting program increased refugee employment but document no discernable benefits for the ad hoc program. This paper is currently under review.
In another project conducted in Germany, prompted by the crisis in Ukraine, we have investigated whether private hosting of Ukrainian refugees improved their integration outcomes. We find that private accommodation, in comparison to public asylum centers, improves refugees’ social, psychological and navigational integration outcomes. As soon as the two papers are published, we will disseminate the findings to policy makers in Germany and Europe as well as to media outlets internationally.
To understand how public sentiment about asylum seekers has changed through Europe’s two major recent waves of refugee migration, we have conducted a large-scale public opinion survey among approximately 15,000 vote-eligible citizens in 15 European countries. Our findings suggest that European support for asylum seekers remained remarkably stable across the Syrian (2015–16) and Ukrainian (2022) refugee protection crises. The paper was published in Nature and was picked up by several international news outlets.
Finally, we have been running a large-scale randomized control trial to evaluate the benefits of data-driven, algorithmic geographic placement to optimize employment outcomes. We have presented the results at various occasions, engaging stakeholders such as the State Secretariate for Migration in Switzerland and the World Bank. Additionally, the Dutch asylum administration (COA) has sought our expertise, requesting a series of backtests in order to gauge the potential of algorithmic matching within the Dutch context.
In a first paper published in PNAS, we show that recently arrived refugees in Switzerland were more likely to be employed if they lived close to a larger group of people who share their nationality, ethnicity or language. The publication was covered by several news outlets in Switzerland, the US and in Sweden as well as cited in a World Bank report (Schuettler, Kirsten; Caron, Laura. 2020. Jobs Interventions for Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons. Jobs Working Paper; No. 47. World Bank, Washington, DC).
Also in Switzerland, we studied welfare benefit payments and tested whether high welfare benefit municipalities serve as “welfare magnets”. We find very limited evidence that this is the case. The findings were published in the American Journal of Political Science and were presented at academic conferences, in a podcast, and via a press release.
We have further looked into the effects of labour market restrictions and find that restricting refugees' employment opportunities reduces their labor market integration and earnings in the long run. The findings were covered in Swiss news outlets and will be shared further once the paper, which is currently under review, is published.
In France, we have studied the effects of integration contracts and find the integration contract facilitated employment in the short term without backlash but did not translate into long-lasting integration gains. The paper is forthcoming in the American Journal of Political Science. The publication will be accompanied by various dissemination efforts, incl. a press release, and are shared with the Office Français de Protection des Réfugiés et Apatrides (OFPRA), the French government office responsible for processing asylum applications.
In Germany, we have examined the impact of two publicly funded language programs in response to the large increase in the number of asylum seekers in 2015: a rapidly developed, ad hoc program that offered basic language training to over 230,000 newly arrived refugees and a smaller, preexisting program that offered refugees comprehensive language training. We find that the more comprehensive, preexisting program increased refugee employment but document no discernable benefits for the ad hoc program. This paper is currently under review.
In another project conducted in Germany, prompted by the crisis in Ukraine, we have investigated whether private hosting of Ukrainian refugees improved their integration outcomes. We find that private accommodation, in comparison to public asylum centers, improves refugees’ social, psychological and navigational integration outcomes. As soon as the two papers are published, we will disseminate the findings to policy makers in Germany and Europe as well as to media outlets internationally.
To understand how public sentiment about asylum seekers has changed through Europe’s two major recent waves of refugee migration, we have conducted a large-scale public opinion survey among approximately 15,000 vote-eligible citizens in 15 European countries. Our findings suggest that European support for asylum seekers remained remarkably stable across the Syrian (2015–16) and Ukrainian (2022) refugee protection crises. The paper was published in Nature and was picked up by several international news outlets.
Finally, we have been running a large-scale randomized control trial to evaluate the benefits of data-driven, algorithmic geographic placement to optimize employment outcomes. We have presented the results at various occasions, engaging stakeholders such as the State Secretariate for Migration in Switzerland and the World Bank. Additionally, the Dutch asylum administration (COA) has sought our expertise, requesting a series of backtests in order to gauge the potential of algorithmic matching within the Dutch context.
The ERC funding allowed us to implement important steps in further sub-projects. We have conducted analyses on the length of the asylum procedure in Switzerland. The evaluation will provide information on the effect of the new asylum procedure on processing time, return and economic integration of refugees. In addition, we are measuring the impact of welfare payments on refugees’ employment and crime rates. In a subproject in Denmark, we are studying citizenship policies with the aim to learn more about the mechanisms of citizenship acquisition and its implication for immigrant integration. And we are in the process of interviewing resettlement refugees eligible for the Swiss Pre-Departure Orientation program and expect to gain insights on resettled refugees’ integration journeys and on the efficiency of the program.
Crucially, our research has also laid the foundation for the design and implementation of new algorithmic tools to facilitate refugee integration. We have presented the results on the effects of labour market restrictions for refugees to the Swiss State Secretariate for Migration. This provided us with the opportunity to start new projects with the Swiss government including the development of an online job platform targeted at facilitating job matching among refugees.
Finally, we have extended our large-scale randomized control trial in Switzerland to pilot test our data-driven algorithm to optimally match refugees to locations (Bansak et al, 2018, Science). When the trial is completed as planned, this will constitute one of the first randomized evaluation of human-centered applications of machine-learning for improving refugees’ integration outcomes in an actionable, scalable, and ethically-responsible approach.
Crucially, our research has also laid the foundation for the design and implementation of new algorithmic tools to facilitate refugee integration. We have presented the results on the effects of labour market restrictions for refugees to the Swiss State Secretariate for Migration. This provided us with the opportunity to start new projects with the Swiss government including the development of an online job platform targeted at facilitating job matching among refugees.
Finally, we have extended our large-scale randomized control trial in Switzerland to pilot test our data-driven algorithm to optimally match refugees to locations (Bansak et al, 2018, Science). When the trial is completed as planned, this will constitute one of the first randomized evaluation of human-centered applications of machine-learning for improving refugees’ integration outcomes in an actionable, scalable, and ethically-responsible approach.