Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes

Project Information

CAFE

Grant agreement ID: 813844

DOI

10.3030/813844

Project closed

EC signature date 20 August 2018

Start date 1 March 2019

End date 28 February 2023

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Total cost

€ 3 155 771,88

EU contribution

€ 3 155 771,88

Coordinated by

Consorci Centre de Recerca Matematica
Spain

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Deliverables

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (5)

Web site online and social network profiles
Training material from both schools available on the web
Updates: YouTube channel videocapsules; website/blogs
Final videos and brochure
Marketing materials: video capsules, brochure

Documents, reports (29)

Report on MJO modelling as an activation multiplicative process
Report on the identification of coherent structures in sub-seasonal large-scale phenomena
Report on sources of predictability for the flow features in sub-seasonal forecasts

Report on sources of predictability for the flow features in subseasonal forecasts

Potential inputs for policy feedback

Report on potential inputs for policy feedback

Report on characteristics of RWPs in Southern Hemisphere
Career Development Plans

Career Development Plans (CDPs)

Report on the predictability of rainfall from SSS
Report on the predictability of European temperature and precipitation from analogue SWG
Report on the performance of the algorithm for computing the exceedance probabilities for either hurricanes of windstorms
Report on double/joint doctorate degrees

Report on doublejoint doctorate degrees

Report on the role of RWPs in prediction skill in SH extra-tropics

Report on the role of RWPs in prediction skill in SH extratropics

Report on the identification of large scale weather patterns that lead to severe temperature condition and on their predictability
Final year review of CDPs
Report on response of extreme weather for three levels of stabilized global warming and reponse to internal modes of climate variability
Report on correlation between SSS and extreme precipitation events
Report on which hazardous meteorological quantities in a spatial mode analysis possess the strongest correlations with ENSO phases
Report on the statistics of MJO events and their predictability
Supervising Guidelines
Report on quantification of the cascade effect including visualization in maps
Report on the performance of the analogue SGW and quantitative comparison with other prediction approaches
Report on the application of multilayer networks to predict sub-seasonal climate regime changes
Report on the travelling coherent structures associated to the MJO
Report on response of extreme weather events in the abrupt 4xCO2 baseline experiment of CMIP6 and model uncertainties
Report on verification of the atmospheric flow features in sub-seasonal forecasts

Report on verification of the atmospheric flow features in subseasonal forecasts

Report on the clustering properties of extreme cyclonic events
Communication Plan
Report on weather patterns predictability at sub-seasonal time scale

Report on weather patterns predictability at subseasonal time scale

Report on statistical analysis of sequences of weather patterns
Report on the forecast of regionally resolved time accumulated damaging events during ENSO phases and map representation

Other (2)

Software to evaluate predictive skill of analogue SWG and compare with ECMWF forecasts
Software to evaluate prediction of climate regime changes

Publications

Conference proceedings (1)

ENSO and SAM influence on the generation of long episodes of Rossby Wave Packets during Southern Hemisphere Summer

Author(s): Iago Perez; Marcelo Barreiro; Cristina Masoller
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Issue 11, 2021
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-877

Peer reviewed articles (23)

Fast and effective pseudo transfer entropy for bivariate data-driven causal inference.

Author(s): Riccardo Silini; Cristina Masoller
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 4, 2021, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-87818-3

Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–JulianOscillation using a stochastic weather generatorbased on circulation analogs

Author(s): Meriem Krouma1,2, Riccardo Silini3, and Pascal Yiou2
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-273-2023

Study of interaction and complete merging of binary cyclones using complex networks

Author(s): Shraddha Gupta ; Vishnu R. Unni ; Rewanth Ravindran ; Praveen Kasthuri ; Norbert Marwan ; Jürgen Kurths ; R. I. Sujith
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2023, ISSN 1089-7682
Publisher: AIP Publishing
DOI: 10.3389/feart.2021.688613

Outlier mining in high-dimensional data using theJensen–Shannon divergence and graph structure analysis

Author(s): Alex S O Toledo1,2, Riccardo Silini1, Laura C Carpi3,4 and Cristina Masoller1,∗
Published in: Journal of Physics: Complexity, 2022, Page(s) 7, ISSN 2632-072X
Publisher: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2632-072x/aca94a

Lagged Teleconnections of Climate Variables Identified via Complex Rotated Maximum Covariance Analysis

Author(s): Rieger, Niclas; Corral, Álvaro; Turiel, Antonio; Olmedo, Estrella
Published in: Journal of Climate, 2021, Page(s) 24, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0244.1

Improving the prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation of the ECMWF model by post-processing

Author(s): Riccardo Silini, Sebastian Lerch, Nikolaos Mastrantonas, Holger Kantz, Marcelo Barreiro, and Cristina Masoller
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 2190-4979
Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-1157-2022

Characteristic signatures of Northern Hemisphere blocking events in a Lagrangian flow network representation of the atmospheric circulation

Author(s): Ehstand, Noemie CSIC ORCID; Donner, Reik V.; López, Cristóbal CSIC ORCID ; Hernández-García, Emilio CSIC ORCID
Published in: IFISC, 2021, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0057409

Interconnection between the Indian and the East Asian summer monsoon: Spatial synchronization patterns of extreme rainfall events

Author(s): Shraddha Gupta, Zhen Su, Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths, Norbert Marwan, Florian Pappenberger
Published in: Internaional Journal of Climatology, 2023, ISSN 1097-0088
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7861

Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation

Author(s): Riccardo Silini; Marcelo Barreiro; Cristina Masoller
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2021), Issue 10, 2021, ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher: Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00214-6

Complex network approach for detecting tropical cyclones

Author(s): Shraddha Gupta, Niklas Boers, Florian Pappenberger & Jürgen Kurths
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2021, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05871-0

Assessment of stochastic weather forecast of precipitation nearEuropean cities, based on analogs of circulation

Author(s): Meriem Krouma1,2, Pascal Yiou2, Céline Déandreis1, and Soulivanh Thao2
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, 2022, Page(s) 18, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-4941-2022

Forecasting extreme precipitation in the central Mediterranean: Changes in predictors' strength with prediction lead time

Author(s): Nikolaos Mastrantonas, Luca Furnari, Linus Magnusson, Alfonso Senatore, Giuseppe Mendicino, Florian Pappenberger, Jörg Matschullat
Published in: Meteorological Applications, 2022, ISSN 1469-8080
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/met.2101

Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean: Spatiotemporal characteristics and connection to large-scale atmospheric flow patterns

Author(s): Nikolaos Mastrantonas, Pedro Herrera-Lormendez, Linus Magnusson, Florian Pappenberger, Jörg Matschullat
Published in: International Journal of Climatology, 2020, ISSN 1097-0088
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6985

Projected changes in synoptic circulations over Europe and their implications for summer precipitation: A CMIP6 perspective

Author(s): Pedro Herrera-Lormendez, Amal John, Hervé Douville, Jörg Matschullat
Published in: International Journal of Climatology, 2023, ISSN 1097-0088
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/joc.8033

Quantifying CMIP6 model uncertainties in extreme precipitation projections

Author(s): Amal John a c, Hervé Douville a, Aurélien Ribes a, Pascal Yiou b
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, 2022, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100435

Benchmarking prediction skill in binary El Niño forecasts

Author(s): Xinjia Hu, Jan Eichner, Eberhard Faust & Holger Kantz
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05950-2

What do large-scale patterns teach us about extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean at medium- and extended-range forecasts?

Author(s): Nikolaos Mastrantonas, Linus Magnusson, Florian Pappenberger, Jörg Matschullat
Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2021, Page(s) 16, ISSN 1477-870X
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/qj.4236

Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6

Author(s): Pedro Herrera-Lormendez, Nikolaos Mastrantonas, Hervé Douville, Andreas Hoy, Jörg Matschullat
Published in: International Journal of Climatology, 2021, ISSN 1097-0088
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7481

European heatwaves: Link to large-scale circulation patterns and intraseasonal drivers

Author(s): Emmanuel Rouges, Laura Ferranti, Holger Kantz, Florian Pappenberger
Published in: International Journal of Climatology, 2023, ISSN 1097-0088
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/joc.8024

Assessing causal dependencies in climatic indices

Author(s): Riccardo Silini, Giulio Tirabassi, Marcelo Barreiro, Laura Ferranti & Cristina Masoller
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Publisher: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06562-0

Combined impact of ENSO and Antarctic Oscillation on austral spring precipitation in Southeastern South America (SESA)

Author(s): Xinjia Hu, Jan Eichner, Daoyi Gong, Marcelo Barreiro & Holger Kantz
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06592-8

Perspectives on the importance of complex systems in understanding our climate and climate change—The Nobel Prize in Physics 2021

Author(s): Shraddha Gupta ; Nikolaos Mastrantonas ; Cristina Masoller ; Jürgen Kurths
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2021, ISSN 1089-7682
Publisher: AIP Publishing
DOI: 10.1063/5.0090222

Fast adjustment versus slow SST-mediated response of daily precipitation statistics to abrupt 4xCO2

Author(s): Hervé Douville & A. John
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2020, ISSN 1432-0894
Publisher: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05522-w