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Modelling INdividual Decisions to Support The European Policies related to agriculture

Deliverables

Final report on communication, dissemination and impact of project activities

Final Report on communication, dissemination and impact

Report on improvements to the current EU and global models

This deliverable reports upon improvements of current models in WP5 following a) harmonization of production system, sector and farm type based on MIND STEP data framework developed in WP2 b) improved representation/adoption of mitigation technologies c) improved elasticities of substitution/transformation between land uses d) improved risk representation e) improved elasticities of transformation/impacts on productivity coefficients f) improved market power parameters and price transmission elasticities.

Interim report on communication, dissemination and impact of project activities

Interim report on the communication, dissemination and impact of project activities in MIND STEP.

List of data storage and processing capacities required by partners WP2-6

Beta version of a generic wrapper to allow a standardized communication channel between the models List of data storage and processing capacities required by partners WP2-6

Report on modelling crop management practices and interfaces to the MIND STEP model toolbox

Description of innovative microeconometric production choice models for empirically analysing farmers crop management choices yield levels chemical input uses acreages and crop management practices CMP

MIND STEP Platform

This deliverable will initiate the MIND STEP Platform of the project website to support Stakeholder Platform exchanges.

Final report on the concept of the MIND STEP model toolbox

Develop protocols related to the data exchange across scales Propose combinations of the models to be used for assessment of different types of EU policies and global events depending on the geographical scope of the analysis Together with D31 and D41 this delivers the final report on the concept of the MIND STEP model toolbox

Indicator framework for measuring the impact of policies/global drivers on IDM units in agriculture

Identify indicators for monitoring and evaluating the impacts of policy measures and drivers on IDM units in agriculture. Organise a stakeholder workshop to discuss and consolidate the list of indicators

Communication, Dissemination and Impact Strategy and Plan

The Communication, Dissemination and Impact Strategy and Plan will be a strategic document establishing individual partner responsibilities and timelines, guidelines and suggestions for dissemination. The deliverable will analyse dissemination target groups and match them with the most appropriate channels, key messages for communication, and external partners with whom to cooperate on co-dissemination.

Common handbook for maintenance and continuation of interfaces for economic and biophysical data handling for farm modelling at IDM unit levels

Common handbook for maintenance and continuation of interfaces for economic and biophysical data handling for farm modelling at IDM unit levels This is part of the Exploitation Strategy and Plan ESP

Report on modelling risk management and interfaces to the MIND STEP model toolbox

Description of a farm level simulation model to analyse the risk-reducing impacts of different Risk Management Instruments.

Report on extensions of Farm AgriPoliS and experimental insights with FarmAgriPoliS on farmers' response to Rural Development measures and opportunities and interfaces with the MIND STEP model toolbox

Report on extensions of FarmAgriPoliS Report on experimental insights with FarmAgriPoliS on farmers response to Rural Development measures and opportunities

Interim report 2 on communication, dissemination and impact of project activities

Summary of the communication dissemination and impact of project activities in MIND STEP

Report on options for quality management, validation requirements and suitability of validation tools.

Description of a guideline and identification of indicators to assess model validity on different scales the common framework and indicator system for model validation This framework aims to ensure eg that a tools are suitable to investigate relevant policy measures b cover key indicators of interest and c provide valid results The resulting framework is considered as a mean of quality management within MIND STEP

Summary of required data from WP 3/4/5

Collection, review and description of data requirements of modelling work conducted in WP3, WP4, WP5 and WP6.

Report on the major gaps of the current models in terms of policy/global driver coverage

Critical review of the existing IDM models and identify the major gaps and innovations needed in policy and/or global driver coverage. D1.1, D1.2 and D1.3 constitute the “conceptual framework” for the whole MIND STEP project.

Exploitation Strategy and Plan

Final outline of strategy and plan for exploiting results of MIND STEP after the end of the project.

Report on protocol to link the new tools to IDMs and current large scale models.

Description of an interface between models in WP4 and IDMs in WP3 in terms of inputoutput variables to ensure the conceptual consistency of the link in terms of behavioral assumptions resolution and time horizon The same will done with respect to models in WP4 and the large scale models in WP5 This should result in a protocol to ensure the longterm policy relevance of the new models in the MIND STEP model toolbox

Report on specification of tool requirements

Description of criteria and requirements that models should fulfil in order to fit in the modular and extendable model structure of MIND STEP. This will deliver a protocol with respect to the functionality of the individual models as well as requirements concerning interfaces between models in the MIND STEP model toolbox.

Literature review of methods for linking economic and bio-physical data bases

Description of methodologies and approaches of spatial matching between socio-economic entities and environmental conditions, crucial for understanding and modelling farmers’ behaviour in WP3 and WP4.

Report on integration of complex IDMs in ABMs and interfaces with the MIND STEP model toolbox

Development and description of a) interface between FARMDYN and Agripolis b) the trained surrogate model approximating the input/output relations from FARMDYN using a highly flexible deep learning neural network (DNN) c) replacing the individual farm behaviour in AgriPoliS using the trained surrogate model.

Report on policies and global drivers affecting IDM units in EU agriculture

Review existing policies and future policy visions as well as key global drivers affecting IDM farm units and the agricultural sector in the EU. Identify key policy questions and potential policy instruments to be included in the MIND STEP modelling system.

Draft Exploitation Strategy and Plan

Draft of the exploitation strategy and plan developed in MIND STEP

Report to model the supply chain mechanisms and the bargaining position of farmers along the chain and interfaces with the MIND STEP model toolbox

Description of IDM models and price formation for different actors within the supply chain. The IDM models include market mechanisms, institutional arrangements and coordination tools along the chain (e.g. contracting, producer organisations). The IDM models focus on pigs/pork and tomatoes supply chains in Italy and pig/pork and sugarbeet/sugar supply chains in Germany.

Report on modelling greenhouse gas emission including adoption behaviour of farmers regarding mitigation strategies and interfaces to the MIND STEP model toolbox

Description of parameterisation and results of an IDM model analysing mitigation strategies to climate change of selected number of farm types in regions in Germany and the Netherlands. The models are based on geo-referenced farms linking financial economic and biophysical datasets. Behavioural economic theories and machine learning techniques will be applied for improved model parameterisation.

Report on overarching IDM model of individual farms and interfaces with the MIND STEP model toolbox

Description and development of an overarching model structure for modelling IDM farm units in the agricultural sector This deliverable describes the selection and modelling of the key functionalities that are common to all farm types and regions Ideas and approaches regarding this overarching model structure will be shared further developed and sharpened working together with other consortia financed under the topic This is a continuation of Task 22 and D23

Report on stakeholder workshop on transferability, usability and functionality of the toolbox

Report on stakeholder workshop on transferability usability and functionality of the toolbox The aim of this workshop is a to establish an early and open dialog to fosters transparency of the underlying model structure and requirements and b to address demands of the stakeholders

Report on downscaling of current EU and global models

Review of indicators that need to be downscaled and further enhancement of downscaling techniques to provide them at high spatial, farm type and regional resolution. Variables needed for the downscaling depend on the indicators as defined in WP1 and will be included in the data framework as defined in WP2.

A guide/handbook to build an interface for accessing the data in the project

Guide that lists the properties and technical requirements for the interfaces needed to integrate data from multiple heterogeneous sources and applied to data needs of the modelling work conducted in WP3, WP4, WP5 and WP6.

Report on the validation of the MIND STEP model toolbox approach and proof of concept

Results of empirical validation and process validation. Empirical validation include results of benchmarking, robustness checks and sensitivity analysis. Results of application of new models included in the MIND STEP model toolbox to other regions in Europe. These applications are input for a roadmap for integrated (ex-ante) assessment including the establishment of EU-wide models containing the IDM unit

Common processing plan

Prototype for Interfaces for economic databases (2.3) /bio-physical databases (2.4)/large scale data (2.5)/current models (2.6)

Report on modelling structural change and farm interaction on land markets and interfaces with the MIND STEP model toolbox

Report on farm exit estimation for Norway and Germany Report on IFMCAP land market model development including information about location probability Task 25 different land qualities and exit decision probabilities to account for structural change

Beta version of a wrapper to allow a standardized communication channel between the models

Beta version of a generic wrapper to allow a standardized communication channel between the models

Access to a computer cluster including a the appropriate management software
Release of the data services and download services
Final version of Interfaces for economic databases (2.4)/bio-physical databases (2.5)/large scale data(2.5)/current models (2.6)

Final version of Interfaces for economic databases (2.3)/bio-physical databases (2.4)/large scale data(2.5)/current models (2.6)

Prototype of a wrapper to allow a standardized communication channel between the models

Prototype of a generic wrapper to allow a standardized communication channel between the models.

Database for linking economic and bio-physical data

Description of database for linking economic and bio-physical data.

Setup of the version control system and the continuous integration tool
Prototype of the data services and download services
Prototype for Interfaces for economic databases (2.4) /bio-physical databases (2.5)/large scale data (2.5)/current models (2.6)

Prototype for Interfaces for economic databases (2.3) /bio-physical databases (2.4)/large scale data (2.5)/current models (2.6)

Publications

Effects for global agriculture of country-specific climate policy regimes with a focus on methane

Author(s): Klaus Mittenzwei; Jordan Hristov; Ignacio Pérez-Domínguez; Peter Witzke
Published in: Q Open - A Journal of Agricultural, Climate, Environmental, Food, Resource, and Rural Development Economics, Issue 12, 2023, ISSN 2633-9048
Publisher: A Journal of Agricultural, Climate, Environmental, Food, Resource, and Rural Development Economics
DOI: 10.1093/qopen/qoad021

Dealing with low-probability shocks: The role of selected heuristics in farmers’ risk management decisions

Author(s): Christoph Duden, Oliver Mußhoff, Frank Offermann
Published in: Agricultural Economics, 2022, ISSN 0169-5150
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1111/agec.12763

Crop choices in micro-econometric multi-crop models: modelling corners, kinks and jumps

Author(s): Koutchadé, Obafèmi Philippe; Carpentier, Alain; Féménia, Fabienne; Koutchadé, Obafèmi Philippe; Carpentier, Alain; Féménia, Fabienne
Published in: American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Issue 4, 2020, ISSN 1467-8276
Publisher: American Journal of Agricultural Economics
DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.307209

A design for a generic and modular bio-economic farm model

Author(s): Wolfgang Britz, Pavel Ciaian, Alexander Gocht, Argyris Kanellopoulos, Dimitrios Kremmydas, Marc Müller, Athanasios Petsakos, Pytrik Reidsma
Published in: Agricultural Systems, Issue 191, 2021, Page(s) 103133, ISSN 0308-521X
Publisher: Applied Science Publishers
DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103133

How much can farmers pay for weeding robots? A Monte Carlo simulation study

Author(s): Linmei Shang; Christoph Pahmeyer; Thomas Heckelei; Sebastian Rasch; Hugo Storm
Published in: Crossref, Issue 7, 2023, ISSN 1385-2256
Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s11119-023-10015-x

Key policy questions for ex-ante impact assessment of European agricultural and rural policies

Author(s): Silvia Coderoni; John Helming; Marta Pérez-Soba; Paolo Sckokai; Alessandro Varacca
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, 2021, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1f45

Dutch dairy farmers’ adoption of climate mitigation measures – The role of socio-psychological and socio-demographical factors

Author(s): Wang, Scarlett; Höhler, Julia; Ang, Frederic; Oude Lansink, Alfons
Published in: Journal of Cleaner Production, 2023, ISSN 0959-6526
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.139187

Surrogate modelling of a detailed farm‐level model using deep learning

Author(s): Linmei Shang; Jifeng Wang; David Schäfer; Thomas Heckelei; Juergen Gall; Franziska Appel; Hugo Storm
Published in: Journal of Agricultural Economics, Issue 3, 2023, ISSN 0021-857X
Publisher: Imperial College of Science
DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12543

Identifying heterogeneous flexibility of dairy farms using a panel smooth transition regression approach 

Author(s): Elodie Letort, Fabienne Femenia 
Published in: European Review of Agricultural Economics, 2023, ISSN 1464-3618
Publisher: European Review of Agricultural Economics
DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbad037

How much multilateralism do we need? Effectiveness of unilateral agricultural mitigation efforts in the global context

Author(s): Stefan Frank; Petr Havlik; Andrzej Tabeau; Peter Witzke; Esther Boere; Mariia Bogonos; Andre Deppermann; Michiel van Dijk; Michiel van Dijk; Lena Höglund-Isaksson; Charlotte Janssens; Charlotte Janssens; Monika Kesting; Hans van Meijl; Ignacio Perez-Dominguez; Hugo Valin
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, 16(10), Issue 2, 2021, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2967

Modeling Corners, Kinks, and Jumps in Crop Acreage Choices: Impacts of the EU Support to Protein Crops

Author(s): Obafemi Philippe Koutchade; Alain Carpentier; Fabienne Femenia
Published in: "American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press (OUP), 2021, 103 (4), pp.1502-1524. ⟨10.1111/ajae.12152⟩", Issue 9, 2020, ISSN 0002-9092
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12152

Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions on Dutch dairy farms. An efficiency analysis incorporating the circularity principle

Author(s): Scarlett Wang, Frederic Ang, Alfons Oude Lansink
Published in: Agricultural Economics, 2023, ISSN 1574-0862
Publisher: Wiley Online Library
DOI: 10.1111/agec.12804

Data on a synthetic farm population of the German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia

Author(s): Christoph Pahmeyer, David Schäfer, Till Kuhn, Wolfgang Britz
Published in: Data in Brief, Issue 36, 2021, Page(s) 107007, ISSN 2352-3409
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.dib.2021.107007

Adoption and diffusion of digital farming technologies - integrating farm-level evidence and system interaction

Author(s): Linmei Shang; Thomas Heckelei; Maria K. Gerullis; Jan Börner; Sebastian Rasch
Published in: Agricultural Systems, Issue 1, 2021, ISSN 0308-521X
Publisher: Applied Science Publishers
DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103074

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