Periodic Reporting for period 1 - PARIS REINFORCE (Delivering on the Paris Agreement: A demand-driven, integrated assessment modelling approach)
Reporting period: 2019-06-01 to 2020-11-30
The scientific community must effectively contribute to climate action talks and inform policymaking processes, on realistic grounds and in response to actual policy needs.
In this context, PARIS REINFORCE seeks to revolutionise the scientific paradigm and underpin climate policymaking with authoritative processes and tangible results, as well as enhance and legitimise the science-policy interface leading to improved, evidence-based, inclusive, realistic, sustainable and robust policies and directions. The objectives of the project are:
- To develop a novel, IAM-oriented assessment framework for effectively supporting the design and evaluation of climate policies globally and in the EU as well as in all other major emitters and selected less developed countries, in respect to the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
- To enhance the legitimacy of the scientific processes in support of climate policymaking, by introducing an innovative stakeholder inclusion framework (co-design) and improving the transparency of the respective models, methods and tools.
- To introduce innovative policy support frameworks that improve the robustness of modelling outcomes against different types of uncertainties, inherent in both the climate change domain and integrated assessment processes.
In this context, PARIS REINFORCE seeks to revolutionise the scientific paradigm and underpin climate policymaking with authoritative processes and tangible results, as well as enhance and legitimise the science-policy interface leading to improved, evidence-based, inclusive, realistic, sustainable and robust policies and directions. The objectives of the project are:
- To develop a novel, IAM-oriented assessment framework for effectively supporting the design and evaluation of climate policies globally and in the EU as well as in all other major emitters and selected less developed countries, in respect to the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
- To enhance the legitimacy of the scientific processes in support of climate policymaking, by introducing an innovative stakeholder inclusion framework (co-design) and improving the transparency of the respective models, methods and tools.
- To introduce innovative policy support frameworks that improve the robustness of modelling outcomes against different types of uncertainties, inherent in both the climate change domain and integrated assessment processes.
The project has run smoothly, despite COVID-19 disruptions. Key project systems and a regular pattern of calls/updates were established to coordinate work. Procedures have been developed/codified, including a quality management plan for high-quality outputs. Deliverables have been submitted on time and to agreed quality standards.
Our open-access data exchange platform has been up and running since 11/2019. Specifications were conducted with stakeholders. The platform’s live launch was conducted during our 1st Stakeholder Dialogue in Brussels, 11/2019. The platform features a detailed, a comparative and a dynamic documentation to capture the characteristics of the project models. There has been an open call to connect different model groups from across the globe: apart from the 19 consortium models, 21 non-consortium models have already been added, promising the platform’s success and sustainability. We have also focused on transparency: harmonisation of variables can be illustrated via an interactive table of harmonisable/extractable variables displayed across user-selected models; and a heatmap feature in each workspace to collectively illustrate the extent to which techno- and socio-economic variables have been harmonised in each exercise.
Early in the project, the consortium established an enhanced database of over 3,000 relevant stakeholders. The first model iteration was informed in a process of consultation at the EU level. In 09-10/2019, bilateral conversations with key policymakers helped scope topics for discussion at the 11/2019 EU workshop, where voting tools and live discussion allowed stakeholders to share preferences, ensuring policy relevance of model runs. Additional meetings were organised with EC representatives, focusing on COVID implications and the new 2030 target Impact Assessment, aiming to align our programme with the existing policy context. We have successfully completed 1 EU regional (11/2019), and 3 non-European workshops in Japan physically (12/2019), and subsequently in Kenya (10/2020) and India (11/2020) virtually. At the Member State level, only 1 workshop was held, in Greece (01/2020). The delay is largely attributable to COVID-19.
Modelling kicked off early and has run smoothly, despite COVID implications impacting stakeholder engagement. The EU modelling framework and started earlier than envisaged, in parallel with global runs. Implementation of the first “Where are We Headed?” (WWH) scenario framework, developed for global IAMs and adapted to the EU context, entailed a review of current EU policy at the EU (EU-ETS, ESR, LULUCF, vehicles emissions regulations, etc.) and MS level (NECPs). Preliminary WWH results are available. On national/regional modelling outside Europe, a detailed set of inputs regarding socio-economic and technical parameters was discussed and agreed, such that these parameters are closely harmonised with their equivalents in the EU and global packages. The 1st round of co-creation has begun and, along with model set-up, sets the stage for a series of non-European regional modelling exercises to follow. Finally, global IAMs have been harmonised: information on harmonisation and data are stored on I2AM PARIS, including a roadmap for the first model round. A massive literature review was carried out across questions and research capacity needs, as reflected in the Brussels workshop. The first model inter-comparison focused on a new set of reference scenarios describing where world emissions are headed in light of current ambition, as codified in current policies and NDCs. This, together with other analysis on model input harmonisation, forms the basis of two flagship journal papers submitted in mid-December, aiming to add critical analysis to the IPCC AR6 evidence-base on current ambition scenarios.
Extensive sociotechnical analyses were carried out to capture the real-life context of seven countries, to complement efforts of meaningfully informing stakeholder interactions and modelling. Multiple-criteria group decision aid frameworks were developed and employed to facilitate knowledge elicitation and co-creation of model parameters, scenario components and research questions. A multiple-uncertainty analysis framework for modelling several sustainable development goals was developed and applied on the first global model runs. A tool fostering the sectoral index decomposition analysis of scenarios was designed building on the IPCC AR6 scenario template and validated.
Communication, dissemination, and exploitation list the distribution of information material and design/update of the project website to the organisation of 5 workshops and participation in 4 external events; targeted social media presence; design of 1 video and 15 infographics; 8 articles in non-scientific press; and 11 newsletters and press releases. The project is on track to concretely contribute to IPCC AR6, with 24 publications in high-impact journals, 6 conferences, 10 openly accessible datasets, 1 Special Issue, 1 targeted policy brief, and efforts to bring the fragmented scientific landscape together.
Our open-access data exchange platform has been up and running since 11/2019. Specifications were conducted with stakeholders. The platform’s live launch was conducted during our 1st Stakeholder Dialogue in Brussels, 11/2019. The platform features a detailed, a comparative and a dynamic documentation to capture the characteristics of the project models. There has been an open call to connect different model groups from across the globe: apart from the 19 consortium models, 21 non-consortium models have already been added, promising the platform’s success and sustainability. We have also focused on transparency: harmonisation of variables can be illustrated via an interactive table of harmonisable/extractable variables displayed across user-selected models; and a heatmap feature in each workspace to collectively illustrate the extent to which techno- and socio-economic variables have been harmonised in each exercise.
Early in the project, the consortium established an enhanced database of over 3,000 relevant stakeholders. The first model iteration was informed in a process of consultation at the EU level. In 09-10/2019, bilateral conversations with key policymakers helped scope topics for discussion at the 11/2019 EU workshop, where voting tools and live discussion allowed stakeholders to share preferences, ensuring policy relevance of model runs. Additional meetings were organised with EC representatives, focusing on COVID implications and the new 2030 target Impact Assessment, aiming to align our programme with the existing policy context. We have successfully completed 1 EU regional (11/2019), and 3 non-European workshops in Japan physically (12/2019), and subsequently in Kenya (10/2020) and India (11/2020) virtually. At the Member State level, only 1 workshop was held, in Greece (01/2020). The delay is largely attributable to COVID-19.
Modelling kicked off early and has run smoothly, despite COVID implications impacting stakeholder engagement. The EU modelling framework and started earlier than envisaged, in parallel with global runs. Implementation of the first “Where are We Headed?” (WWH) scenario framework, developed for global IAMs and adapted to the EU context, entailed a review of current EU policy at the EU (EU-ETS, ESR, LULUCF, vehicles emissions regulations, etc.) and MS level (NECPs). Preliminary WWH results are available. On national/regional modelling outside Europe, a detailed set of inputs regarding socio-economic and technical parameters was discussed and agreed, such that these parameters are closely harmonised with their equivalents in the EU and global packages. The 1st round of co-creation has begun and, along with model set-up, sets the stage for a series of non-European regional modelling exercises to follow. Finally, global IAMs have been harmonised: information on harmonisation and data are stored on I2AM PARIS, including a roadmap for the first model round. A massive literature review was carried out across questions and research capacity needs, as reflected in the Brussels workshop. The first model inter-comparison focused on a new set of reference scenarios describing where world emissions are headed in light of current ambition, as codified in current policies and NDCs. This, together with other analysis on model input harmonisation, forms the basis of two flagship journal papers submitted in mid-December, aiming to add critical analysis to the IPCC AR6 evidence-base on current ambition scenarios.
Extensive sociotechnical analyses were carried out to capture the real-life context of seven countries, to complement efforts of meaningfully informing stakeholder interactions and modelling. Multiple-criteria group decision aid frameworks were developed and employed to facilitate knowledge elicitation and co-creation of model parameters, scenario components and research questions. A multiple-uncertainty analysis framework for modelling several sustainable development goals was developed and applied on the first global model runs. A tool fostering the sectoral index decomposition analysis of scenarios was designed building on the IPCC AR6 scenario template and validated.
Communication, dissemination, and exploitation list the distribution of information material and design/update of the project website to the organisation of 5 workshops and participation in 4 external events; targeted social media presence; design of 1 video and 15 infographics; 8 articles in non-scientific press; and 11 newsletters and press releases. The project is on track to concretely contribute to IPCC AR6, with 24 publications in high-impact journals, 6 conferences, 10 openly accessible datasets, 1 Special Issue, 1 targeted policy brief, and efforts to bring the fragmented scientific landscape together.
Policy:
- 1 physical regional EU workshop (Belgium, 11/2019 - 57 participants)
- 1 physical EU-national workshop (Greece, 01/2020 - 399 participants)
- 1 physical non-EU-national workshop (Japan, 12/2019 - over 60 participants)
- 2 virtual non-EU-national workshops (Kenya, 10/2020 - 45 participants; India, 11/2020 - 35 participants)
- Stakeholder Council (over 3,000 stakeholders, over 1,000 government representatives)
- 1 policy brief on how models work, what questions they have been used to answer in the past, and what they can and cannot do;
- Participation in EASME policy brief on COVID-19 and the EGD (November 2020)
- Participation in the open consultation process for the NECP in Greece
Society:
Co-creation, representation, transparency, dissemination in non-expert language (1 video, 15 infographics, 8 media articles)
Research:
- 24 academic publications and several other manuscripts currently under review
- 6 conferences
- 1 Special Issue
- 1 physical regional EU workshop (Belgium, 11/2019 - 57 participants)
- 1 physical EU-national workshop (Greece, 01/2020 - 399 participants)
- 1 physical non-EU-national workshop (Japan, 12/2019 - over 60 participants)
- 2 virtual non-EU-national workshops (Kenya, 10/2020 - 45 participants; India, 11/2020 - 35 participants)
- Stakeholder Council (over 3,000 stakeholders, over 1,000 government representatives)
- 1 policy brief on how models work, what questions they have been used to answer in the past, and what they can and cannot do;
- Participation in EASME policy brief on COVID-19 and the EGD (November 2020)
- Participation in the open consultation process for the NECP in Greece
Society:
Co-creation, representation, transparency, dissemination in non-expert language (1 video, 15 infographics, 8 media articles)
Research:
- 24 academic publications and several other manuscripts currently under review
- 6 conferences
- 1 Special Issue