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Real-time Earthquake Risk Reduction for a Resilient Europe

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - RISE (Real-time Earthquake Risk Reduction for a Resilient Europe)

Reporting period: 2019-09-01 to 2021-08-31

The concept and vision of RISE is to promote a paradigm shift in how earthquake risk is perceived and managed. With the advances in scientific understanding and technological capabilities, earthquake hazard and risk will soon be appreciated not as a constant in time, but as an evolving, integrated and dynamic risk. The key objective of RISE is to advance real-time earthquake risk reduction capabilities for a resilient Europe, limiting the negative impact of future earthquakes. To archive that, RISE proposes a series of coordinated activities in the domains of Operational Earthquake Forecasting, Earthquake Early Warning, Rapid Loss Assessment and Recovery and Rebuilding Efforts. Examples of the challenges RISE addresses are:
● Advance real-time seismic risk reduction capacities of European societies by transitioning to a new concept of dynamic risk.
● Improve short-term forecasting and operational earthquake forecasting by developing and validating the next generation of forecasting models.
● Enhance the quality of earthquake prediction and earthquake forecasting by launching a European collaborative effort for validation and rigorous testing.
● Contribute to the establishment of sound and rational risk reduction procedures
● Improve the preparedness of societies, emergency managers, and long-term recovery management.
WP2 developed (a) prototype scientific instruments for collecting seismic data and testing building response to ground motion (b) new services for cloud-based access and archival of European seismic data, mapping vulnerability to strong ground shaking on a city district level, and a new high-resolution earthquake catalogue for Italy (c) proofs of concept for accessing seismic data using distributed acoustic sensors in urban and hostile environments and to screen seismic data for evidence of changes in crustal velocity (d)Prototypical Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) experiments in urban (Bern, Athens), volcanic and submarine environments, combined with the development of novel event-detection algorithms and (e) the dynamic exposure model using OpenStreetMap/OpenBuildingMap data for dynamic risk assessment.

WP3 built a new generation of models for OEF to substantially improve earthquake forecasting performance, building on the existing best performing forecasting models of CSEP. Significant progresses have been made on the space-time evolution of the magnitude-frequency distribution, identification of seismic features, development of novel earthquake forecasting models. These models are developed with testing in mind at the earliest stage of model development and the RISE testing centre (WP7) is co-leading the development of the CSEP2.0 software framework and of new classes of tests such as tailored tests of specific hypothesis, ensemble testing, GMM testing. The framework and tools for testing seismic risk models and scenario damage forecasts are developed.

In WP4, RISE engineers developed the second generation real time RLA tools for Europe. Both time invariant and time variant exposure and vulnerability models are developed. The database of building exposure models for 44 European countries together with the open source tools for disaggregating the national exposure models with high resolution is released. A first database of European capacity curves for over 480 building classes has been released. An efficient workflow has been developed to modify the vulnerability models to account for damage accumulation during seismic sequences. The European ShakeMap system is up and running. ShakeMap products from recent events have been downloaded and combined with high resolution exposure and vulnerability models to produce various damage and loss outputs using the ‘Scenario from ShakeMap’ calculator.

RISE social scientists have been working on dynamic risk communication (WP5); how to cope with the challenges due to high level of uncertainties in earthquake risk and how to best communicate the risk for better preparedness such as rehearsing evacuation procedures, ensuring supplies are in hand and all lines of communication are open. With the support of five scientific collaborations, RISE scientists worked on the demonstration of EQN, the smartphone app turning smartphones into motion detectors, the very first smartphone based EEW system.
In the second half of the project the new technologies that had been developed in WP2 will be further tested in field deployments and incorporated into the workflow for dynamic risk assessment.
Improvements in earthquake forecasting (WP3) has a direct impact on the OEF capabilities. At the end of the project we plan to have a larger set of earthquake forecasting models that are more skilful with respect to the existing models.
The development of testing procedures and protocols within RISE (WP7) has created a significant step forward and also uncovered previous problems in established procedures and protocols. RISE is on the way to provide the wider testing community with new possibilities to meaningful test earthquake forecast models but also hazard and risk models.
WP4 activities are expected to provide innovative scientific contributions from the seismic risk assessment perspective: (i) the development of vulnerability and exposure components necessary for OELF, RRE, and RLA (ii) operationalize a European ShakeMap service that will be triggered following events re-ported by Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC); (iii) operationalize OELF in Italy, Turkey and Switzerland; (iv) develop, validate and verify a model to compute the costs of RRE in near real-time and thus enable RRE forecasting; (v) provide data-driven SHM methods that allow to localize and quantify damage in the structure; (vi) provide a powerful decision-support tool for evaluating the actual structural state after a strong motion event; (vii) develop structure-specific early warning systems based on hardware placed nearby or within the structure served by the EEW system; (viii) provide a user-ready risk-cost-benefit analysis framework for quantifying socio-economic impact.
The wider impact of these activities will be a significant progress towards making dynamic risk services operational within Europe (WP6), providing civil protection services with tools that can be used in an emergency phase to plan risk mitigation actions and reduce the social and economic impact of earthquakes on populations.
Regarding the dynamic risk communication findings from the RISE project (WP5), we expect the findings to inform future work on the communication of other natural and manmade hazards. In the citizen seismology component of WP5, the demonstration that EQN was the first operational smartphone-based public earthquake early warning is clearly a significant progress beyond the state of the art. Crowdsourced data can also be used for rapid earthquake information, and rapid impact assessment. The impact will go beyond the end of the project as new operational services are being developed and/or tested. RISE researchers also work on securing the broad societal, economic, and scientific impact of the project; an impact which is both demonstrable and long-term. This process started on day one of the project, continues throughout, and exposes all activities in RISE to an ongoing dialogue targeting stakeholder and end-user needs.
Conceptual view of the RISE work packages relative to the mainshock time