Periodic Reporting for period 1 - SchiSTOP (Beyond mass drug administration: understanding Schistosomiasis dynamics to STOP transmission)
Période du rapport: 2021-05-03 au 2023-05-02
Mathematical models and statistical methods have proven to be essential to gain insights into the complex processes underlying the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. The overarching goal of the SchiSTOP project is to advance our understanding of schistosomiasis transmission dynamics by developing a stochastic agent-based model (ABM) to simulate schistosomiasis transmission integrating cutting-edge mathematical models and statistical methods with recent advances in parasite genetics, epidemiology, diagnostics and immunology.
We find that regulating mechanisms alternative to the commonly assumed density dependence in worm fecundity can reproduce stable pre-control settings, including low endemicity settings. The dynamics in the snail population plays an important role in explaining sustained low transmission. All modelling scenarios agreed that treating school aged children (SAC) only with 10 years of annual MDA will not allow to reach the elimination of schistosomiasis as a public health problem (EPHP) in high or moderate endemicity settings, nor interruption of transmission in the low endemicity settings. Expanding MDA to all individuals older than 2 years of age, makes predictions much more optimistic.
The work performed by Federica Giardina (PI) and Veronica Malizia (PhD student) resulted in published papers, and more manuscripts submitted or in preparation. The results have been presented at national and international conferences, and during two invited talks. Also, a workshop on infectious disease models and a schistosomiasis expert meeting was organized on the topic of the action. SchiSTOP has also had the opportunity to be showcased in the Horizon magazine.
Different stakeholders, from academia to public and private institutions, have been involved. Results have been discussed with the academic community, the WHO, and several NGOs. The SchiSTOP project has produced high-quality scientific publications and open-source code, and has made both widely available to the scientific and wider community. In particular, the model developed in the project has formed the basis of a a web application (Shiny-app) that can be used to run simulations and explore the impact of different interventions and diagnostic tools. The web application can be used to explore the best combination of interventions guiding policy decisions and it also represents an innovative tool in supporting the design of field trials. The developed web-tool has been presented to different stakeholders and will be made operational to support the development of new projects. We will continue to collaborate with other research consortia and epidemiological experts in the production of informative and accessible content. Moreover, owing to the close collaboration established with schistosomiasis experts and researchers in several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, we will continue to disseminate our results advising national and international policymakers and public health agencies.