Periodic Reporting for period 2 - urbisphere (urbisphere - coupling dynamic cities and climate)
Reporting period: 2021-10-01 to 2023-03-31
Climate change and urbanization are transforming life globally, with direct impacts on each other, yet they are rarely studied together across disciplines. Our aims are to forecast feedbacks between weather/climate and cities. With new synergies between our four disciplines (spatial planning, remote sensing, modelling and ground-based observations), we are incorporating city dynamics and human behaviour – including human vulnerability - into weather and climate forecasts/projections. We focus on within-city dynamics of peoples’ activities and how these can be up-scaled to cities globally.
Our modelling is informed by data measured with the urbisphere developed Smart Urban Observation System (SmUrObs). Currently, sensors are deployed in Berlin measuring the 3-dimensional state of the atmosphere and the surface as it varies though an annual cycle. These data are providing both new understanding of surface-atmosphere processes in cities and model evaluation datasets at unprecedented detail.
To undertake modelling, characterization of urban regions (ex: building form, vegetation, transport routes) is critical, but a massive computational challenge on a global basis. New cloud computing techniques are being developed, and partnerships brokered to address this (ex: to ground truth estimated parameters, to identify parameter needs).
Model enhancements to improve local meteorology are being linked to new service applications (e.g. PV panel placement, building overheating and design) with dynamic feedbacks from human behaviour that modify emissions. This allows us to link how cities will impact climate change and how the impacts of climate change will influence cities, with two way feedbacks linked to the vulnerable groups impacted and adaptive capacity. The analysis couples urban form (ex: building structures) and function (ex: housing, work, recreation), and hence helps understanding of where and when vulnerable people are exposed
The new synergies between the four PI groups allows more integrative future development strategies for cities in a changing climate to be explored. Our focus cities to date are Berlin, Paris, Bristol, London, Freiburg, Stuttgart, Heraklion, Nairobi, Beijing, Colombo and Lahore.
Our modelling is informed by data measured with the urbisphere developed Smart Urban Observation System (SmUrObs). Currently, sensors are deployed in Berlin measuring the 3-dimensional state of the atmosphere and the surface as it varies though an annual cycle. These data are providing both new understanding of surface-atmosphere processes in cities and model evaluation datasets at unprecedented detail.
To undertake modelling, characterization of urban regions (ex: building form, vegetation, transport routes) is critical, but a massive computational challenge on a global basis. New cloud computing techniques are being developed, and partnerships brokered to address this (ex: to ground truth estimated parameters, to identify parameter needs).
Model enhancements to improve local meteorology are being linked to new service applications (e.g. PV panel placement, building overheating and design) with dynamic feedbacks from human behaviour that modify emissions. This allows us to link how cities will impact climate change and how the impacts of climate change will influence cities, with two way feedbacks linked to the vulnerable groups impacted and adaptive capacity. The analysis couples urban form (ex: building structures) and function (ex: housing, work, recreation), and hence helps understanding of where and when vulnerable people are exposed
The new synergies between the four PI groups allows more integrative future development strategies for cities in a changing climate to be explored. Our focus cities to date are Berlin, Paris, Bristol, London, Freiburg, Stuttgart, Heraklion, Nairobi, Beijing, Colombo and Lahore.
Within urbisphere we have developed new ways to represent city dynamics for weather and climate models. This includes developing an agent-based model (ABM) that has been coupled to an Urban Canopy Model (UCM). The UCM can now diagnose vertical profiles of atmospheric variables down to the surface.
The SmUrObs has been designed and made operational. It enables near real-time data transmission, processing, visualization and central archiving of 100+ flexible, sensors. Currently, most SmUrObs sensors are deployed in Berlin, across 24 new sites (12 ceilometers, 6 scintillometers, 2 Doppler wind lidars, 4 radiation / flux sites). In Freiburg, other sensors are at 40 new street-level sites. In addition, we acquired and tested Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UAS) to carry optical, thermal and hyperspectral cameras.
Analysis of observations and modelling are enhancing understanding of relations of urban form and function. UAS mounted sensors can map the spectral properties of urban materials and facets, providing a link between scales and data sources. The Berlin field campaign is helping us understand how an isolated city modifies the atmospheric boundary layer; the relation with human activity cycles; and variations above and downwind of the city. New tools to extract morphometric parameters from satellite data use a height/shadow relation and machine learning. New and enhanced methods are used to extract and downscale land surface temperatures to support model evaluation.
To explore our proposed Urban Dynamic Archetypes approach, we are undertaking feedback modelling between human and atmospheric dynamics linked to energy supply (ex: solar PV in Berlin), energy use (ex: London, Beijing), heat stress (ex: Colombo) and air pollution/aerosols. We are studying inter- and intra-city form and function in London, Stuttgart, Berlin (demographics, mobility, climate adaptation and vulnerability planning typologies). Our household surveys in Stuttgart and Berlin (ongoing) are exploring human/socio-economic vulnerability, exposure, risk perception, coping/adaptive measures to climatic stressors, and settlement and building typologies.
With weekly management meetings, workshops (ex: multi-day modelling workshop) and bi-weekly seminars, we are a building our research team. Through a website, planning platforms, repositories and social media channels we are disseminating our findings.
The SmUrObs has been designed and made operational. It enables near real-time data transmission, processing, visualization and central archiving of 100+ flexible, sensors. Currently, most SmUrObs sensors are deployed in Berlin, across 24 new sites (12 ceilometers, 6 scintillometers, 2 Doppler wind lidars, 4 radiation / flux sites). In Freiburg, other sensors are at 40 new street-level sites. In addition, we acquired and tested Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UAS) to carry optical, thermal and hyperspectral cameras.
Analysis of observations and modelling are enhancing understanding of relations of urban form and function. UAS mounted sensors can map the spectral properties of urban materials and facets, providing a link between scales and data sources. The Berlin field campaign is helping us understand how an isolated city modifies the atmospheric boundary layer; the relation with human activity cycles; and variations above and downwind of the city. New tools to extract morphometric parameters from satellite data use a height/shadow relation and machine learning. New and enhanced methods are used to extract and downscale land surface temperatures to support model evaluation.
To explore our proposed Urban Dynamic Archetypes approach, we are undertaking feedback modelling between human and atmospheric dynamics linked to energy supply (ex: solar PV in Berlin), energy use (ex: London, Beijing), heat stress (ex: Colombo) and air pollution/aerosols. We are studying inter- and intra-city form and function in London, Stuttgart, Berlin (demographics, mobility, climate adaptation and vulnerability planning typologies). Our household surveys in Stuttgart and Berlin (ongoing) are exploring human/socio-economic vulnerability, exposure, risk perception, coping/adaptive measures to climatic stressors, and settlement and building typologies.
With weekly management meetings, workshops (ex: multi-day modelling workshop) and bi-weekly seminars, we are a building our research team. Through a website, planning platforms, repositories and social media channels we are disseminating our findings.
After the end of the field campaign in Berlin (Sep 2022), SmUrObs will be deployed in Paris, France (Jan 2023 – Dec 2023) enabling interactions and collaboration with other large urban infrastructures (ex: H2020) projects. Our focus in Paris will be on quantifying neighbourhood variability of emissions, their linkage to urban dynamics and atmospheric feedbacks. Future campaigns with SmUrObs are currently planned beyond 2023 focussing on urban vulnerability and human exposure - candidate cities are currently considered.
Our modelling capacities will be expanded and different urban models will be linked across scales. At the end of the project, we expect that our new modelling capacities enable: a) responsive representation of various human (ex: behavioural, socio-economic, demographic) and atmospheric (ex: weather extremes, variability) dynamics, with two way feedbacks to allow identifying of spatial variability of exposure and vulnerability to climate change related hazards and key local drivers; b) provide a consistent methodology and framework to represent intra-urban effects related to climate and socio-economic modelling as well as assessment at city, regional to global scales - all with integrated uncertainties; c) be able to enhance the dynamic representation of cities within global climate models, thereby inform vulnerability and risk modelling, allowing consistent downscaling for decision making for urban risk and resilience assessments and providing more information about the dynamic nexus of exposure-vulnerability of people in the urban sphere. Our combined observations and modelling systems, will be used to create simplified urban dynamic archetypes (UDA) for these purposes.
Our modelling capacities will be expanded and different urban models will be linked across scales. At the end of the project, we expect that our new modelling capacities enable: a) responsive representation of various human (ex: behavioural, socio-economic, demographic) and atmospheric (ex: weather extremes, variability) dynamics, with two way feedbacks to allow identifying of spatial variability of exposure and vulnerability to climate change related hazards and key local drivers; b) provide a consistent methodology and framework to represent intra-urban effects related to climate and socio-economic modelling as well as assessment at city, regional to global scales - all with integrated uncertainties; c) be able to enhance the dynamic representation of cities within global climate models, thereby inform vulnerability and risk modelling, allowing consistent downscaling for decision making for urban risk and resilience assessments and providing more information about the dynamic nexus of exposure-vulnerability of people in the urban sphere. Our combined observations and modelling systems, will be used to create simplified urban dynamic archetypes (UDA) for these purposes.