Periodic Reporting for period 3 - ELDAR (The Emergence, Life, and Demise of Autocratic Regimes)
Reporting period: 2023-06-01 to 2024-11-30
Autocracies – non-democratic political systems, also often referred to as dictatorships – make up the vast majority of political systems, historically, and still rule about half of the countries in the world. Decisions made by autocratic leaders or other actors in autocracies from China to Russia shape the global economy and security environment, and understanding autocratic systems and policy-making is of utmost importance, also to decision-makers living in democracies. Yet, our knowledge about these political systems remains limited, at least when compared to our knowledge about how democracies work. This, inter alia, makes it more difficult for policy-makers, non-governmental organizations, academics and others to identify autocratic threats to current democracies or spot opportunities for liberalization or even democratization in existing autocracies.
In order to improve our understanding of how autocracies function, ELDAR will investigate three aspects of autocratic politics: 1) how autocracies emerge; 2) policy-making in autocracies, and 3) how autocratic regimes break down. ELDAR offers a comprehensive perspective that highlights connections between these three aspects and studies them jointly in one integrated framework.
While also considering institutions, and how they vary across autocracies, ELDAR to a large extent concentrates on vital actors in autocracies: the leader, regime support groups, and mobilized opposition groups. By theorizing and studying the preferences as well as power resources and strategies of these actors, ELDAR team members aim to identify how policies (in various areas) are selected and shaped, and further how these policies influence or are influenced by regime change and survival.
To investigate such questions empirically, ELDAR collects data on the numbers, social identity and other features of groups that support and oppose regimes. The two ELDAR-financed data collection efforts on these actor-characteristics yield unprecedented opportunities for statistical studies of autocratic emergence and demise. Three other datasets that are collected by ELDAR focus on policy-making in particular areas, namely education, infrastructure, and pensions, and these datasets also open up for more detailed and pioneering empirical studies on autocratic policy-making and implementation in core policy areas.
The project is divided into three working packages (WPs):
In WP1, the ELDAR team investigates why, and under which circumstances autocratic regimes emerge. We will investigate gradual transitions to autocracy, such as the ongoing transformation of the Hungarian political system by the Orban regime, as well as abrupt transitions, such as the US-backed military coup that put an end to Chilean democracy in 1973. Using recently collected data on different types of regime change, as well as original data collection on regime opposition and support groups in ELDAR, we will, in particular, consider processes of self-coups by democratically elected incumbents.
WP2 revolves around the central question of why autocratic regimes implement the policies that they do. By gathering extensive data on infrastructure, education, and social welfare policies, ELDAR will substantially increase our understanding of what policies autocracies implement, and how they differ from their democratic counterparts. Further, using this original data, we will be able to gain new insights into the determinants of policy adoptions in autocracies, as well as the effects these policies have on regime survival and a broad range of other outcomes.
In WP3, the ELDAR team explores why some autocratic regimes endure while others die quickly. One common motivation of many autocrats – albeit not the only one – is to avoid regime breakdown for as long as possible. WP3 will therefore study whether the policies studied in WP2 are effective in helping autocrats to survive in office. Further, we want to study the numerous ways in which autocracies die, and which regimes replace them. While several studies have concentrated on popular revolutions and coups d’état, autocratic regimes can die in several other ways. One particular type of regime change that we will study are incumbent-guided regime transitions, where autocratic incumbents are, at least partially, responsible for directing the regime change. the regime change.
In order to improve our understanding of how autocracies function, ELDAR will investigate three aspects of autocratic politics: 1) how autocracies emerge; 2) policy-making in autocracies, and 3) how autocratic regimes break down. ELDAR offers a comprehensive perspective that highlights connections between these three aspects and studies them jointly in one integrated framework.
While also considering institutions, and how they vary across autocracies, ELDAR to a large extent concentrates on vital actors in autocracies: the leader, regime support groups, and mobilized opposition groups. By theorizing and studying the preferences as well as power resources and strategies of these actors, ELDAR team members aim to identify how policies (in various areas) are selected and shaped, and further how these policies influence or are influenced by regime change and survival.
To investigate such questions empirically, ELDAR collects data on the numbers, social identity and other features of groups that support and oppose regimes. The two ELDAR-financed data collection efforts on these actor-characteristics yield unprecedented opportunities for statistical studies of autocratic emergence and demise. Three other datasets that are collected by ELDAR focus on policy-making in particular areas, namely education, infrastructure, and pensions, and these datasets also open up for more detailed and pioneering empirical studies on autocratic policy-making and implementation in core policy areas.
The project is divided into three working packages (WPs):
In WP1, the ELDAR team investigates why, and under which circumstances autocratic regimes emerge. We will investigate gradual transitions to autocracy, such as the ongoing transformation of the Hungarian political system by the Orban regime, as well as abrupt transitions, such as the US-backed military coup that put an end to Chilean democracy in 1973. Using recently collected data on different types of regime change, as well as original data collection on regime opposition and support groups in ELDAR, we will, in particular, consider processes of self-coups by democratically elected incumbents.
WP2 revolves around the central question of why autocratic regimes implement the policies that they do. By gathering extensive data on infrastructure, education, and social welfare policies, ELDAR will substantially increase our understanding of what policies autocracies implement, and how they differ from their democratic counterparts. Further, using this original data, we will be able to gain new insights into the determinants of policy adoptions in autocracies, as well as the effects these policies have on regime survival and a broad range of other outcomes.
In WP3, the ELDAR team explores why some autocratic regimes endure while others die quickly. One common motivation of many autocrats – albeit not the only one – is to avoid regime breakdown for as long as possible. WP3 will therefore study whether the policies studied in WP2 are effective in helping autocrats to survive in office. Further, we want to study the numerous ways in which autocracies die, and which regimes replace them. While several studies have concentrated on popular revolutions and coups d’état, autocratic regimes can die in several other ways. One particular type of regime change that we will study are incumbent-guided regime transitions, where autocratic incumbents are, at least partially, responsible for directing the regime change. the regime change.
The main work of the project team, so far, has been the collection of five extensive datasets, typically with global coverage and time series reaching back to 1789. All datasets are also accompanied by (at least) one dataset article, which are also currently being finalized.
Specifically ELDAR has completed or is close to completing five datasets:
Dataset 1: Regime support and opposition groups (finalized and published online as part of V-Dem dataset)
Dataset 2: Organized mass opposition groups (data collection finalized, validation ongoing)
Dataset 3: Pensions and social policies (data collection still ongoing for some parts of the dataset, especially for more recent years and for specific types of pensions)
Dataset 4: Education and indoctrination practices and reforms (Only a few countries remaining, very close to finished)
Dataset 5: Infrastructure (Data collection finished, validation ongoing)
Moreover, project members have started on a number of studies pertaining to the different questions on autocratic policy-selection and regime change asked by the ELDAR project, with much of the early focus being placed on disentangling different types of autocratization and the drivers of self-coups (in ELDAR’s Work Package 1), information management and indoctrination as well as pension policies (WP2), and how the identity of regime support groups and support coalition heterogeneity influence conflict and autocratic regime survival (WP3).
Indeed, several ELDAR studies, especially pertaining to autocratic policy-making under WP2, have already been published or are forthcoming in some of the top political science journals, including the Journal of Politics, British Journal of Political Science, Journal of Peace Research, World Politics, Democratization, and the Journal of Conflict Resolution. This comes in addition to a short book (on social policies and regime threats) published by Cambridge University Press.
Lastly, the project members have been strongly engaged in communicating their research and have produced or appeared in several dozen op-eds, newspaper articles, blogposts, podcasts, radio and television shows to inform and communicate their research on autocratic politics to the wider public and policy-makers in different countries.
Specifically ELDAR has completed or is close to completing five datasets:
Dataset 1: Regime support and opposition groups (finalized and published online as part of V-Dem dataset)
Dataset 2: Organized mass opposition groups (data collection finalized, validation ongoing)
Dataset 3: Pensions and social policies (data collection still ongoing for some parts of the dataset, especially for more recent years and for specific types of pensions)
Dataset 4: Education and indoctrination practices and reforms (Only a few countries remaining, very close to finished)
Dataset 5: Infrastructure (Data collection finished, validation ongoing)
Moreover, project members have started on a number of studies pertaining to the different questions on autocratic policy-selection and regime change asked by the ELDAR project, with much of the early focus being placed on disentangling different types of autocratization and the drivers of self-coups (in ELDAR’s Work Package 1), information management and indoctrination as well as pension policies (WP2), and how the identity of regime support groups and support coalition heterogeneity influence conflict and autocratic regime survival (WP3).
Indeed, several ELDAR studies, especially pertaining to autocratic policy-making under WP2, have already been published or are forthcoming in some of the top political science journals, including the Journal of Politics, British Journal of Political Science, Journal of Peace Research, World Politics, Democratization, and the Journal of Conflict Resolution. This comes in addition to a short book (on social policies and regime threats) published by Cambridge University Press.
Lastly, the project members have been strongly engaged in communicating their research and have produced or appeared in several dozen op-eds, newspaper articles, blogposts, podcasts, radio and television shows to inform and communicate their research on autocratic politics to the wider public and policy-makers in different countries.
The project is progressing beyond the state of the art both theoretically and empirically.
Theoretically, ELDAR develops takes a novel comprehensive perspective that highlights connections between the three aspects it investigates and studies them jointly in one integrated framework, concentrating on vital actors in autocracies: the leader, regime support groups, and mobilized opposition groups and identifies the determinants and effects of the interplay between those groups on autocratic emergence, policy-making and survival.
Empirically, ELDAR goes far beyond the state of the art with its innovative and groundbreaking data-collection on the five key areas specified above: regime support groups, organized mass opposition movements, social policies, education systems, and infrastructure.
The data collected by the project enables us to, for the first time, empirically test a number of established theoretical arguments on a global sample. It also aids us in developing and allows for testing new and more specific theories of autocratic politics, for example pertaining to how support coalition heterogeneity reduces threats to autocratic regimes or how infrastructure building can be used as symbolic politics to mitigate particular regime threats (just to mention two ongoing theory development and testing efforts in ELDAR).
Overall, the project will substantially boost our understanding of how autocratic regimes work and their effects, and thus it will hopefully enable different actors (e.g. democratic governments or NGOs) to take more informed decisions when they engage with autocracies.
Theoretically, ELDAR develops takes a novel comprehensive perspective that highlights connections between the three aspects it investigates and studies them jointly in one integrated framework, concentrating on vital actors in autocracies: the leader, regime support groups, and mobilized opposition groups and identifies the determinants and effects of the interplay between those groups on autocratic emergence, policy-making and survival.
Empirically, ELDAR goes far beyond the state of the art with its innovative and groundbreaking data-collection on the five key areas specified above: regime support groups, organized mass opposition movements, social policies, education systems, and infrastructure.
The data collected by the project enables us to, for the first time, empirically test a number of established theoretical arguments on a global sample. It also aids us in developing and allows for testing new and more specific theories of autocratic politics, for example pertaining to how support coalition heterogeneity reduces threats to autocratic regimes or how infrastructure building can be used as symbolic politics to mitigate particular regime threats (just to mention two ongoing theory development and testing efforts in ELDAR).
Overall, the project will substantially boost our understanding of how autocratic regimes work and their effects, and thus it will hopefully enable different actors (e.g. democratic governments or NGOs) to take more informed decisions when they engage with autocracies.