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Next Generation Modelling and Forecasting of Variable Renewable Generation for Large-scale Integration in Energy Systems and Markets

Deliverables

Toolbox of multi-source data approaches to short term RES forecasting

This Deliverable presents the results of Task 31 which is a toolbox of different complementary data sciencebased models that combine data collected from different sources and in different temporal domains aiming at improving RES power forecasting skill

Strategies for RES-oriented NWP models' enhancement

This Deliverable presents the results of Task 21 where the research objective is to improve the forecasting of RESoriented weather variables with NWP satellite and ground based allsky images It includes the results 1 of a first subtask on the refinement of the cloud radiative impact in atmospheric models which is expected to result in an optimised version of AROME mode for solar applications 2 of a second subtask where advanced tools are proposed to generate seamless ensemble forecasts appropriate for alternative energy applications

New trading strategies for RES and storage: humans and data together

This Deliverable presents the results of Task 54 where the aim is on the one hand to to design humanintheloop approaches in order to create knowledge intensive algorithms capable of providing fast advices and assistance to human operators and boost the integration of forecasting technologies

Project leaflet, corporate design and templates

This Deliverable includes a leaflet with information of the project for large-public diffusion, templates for the various documents (deliverables etc) of the project and corporate design guidelines.

Report on generic seamless forecasting approach for multiple time scales

This Deliverable presents the results of Task 32 where the aim is to propose novel approaches towards a seamless view of RES forecasting at various temporal and spatial granularity levels also in view of input data and information that naturally comes with different resolution and frequency updates The resulting approach is expected to simplify the stateof the art model chain where specific models are developed as a function of the time frame of the available data

Use cases, requirements and KPI for RES forecasting

This Deliverable presents the results of Task 1.1 where the requirements for RES forecasts for different applications and end-users are analysed. Several well-established, as well as innovative use-cases, are assessed with respect to the way RES forecasts are considered. The expected performance by end-users and corresponding metrics are also surveyed whereas KPIs for the project are defined.

Report on improved NWP with higher spatial and temporal resolution

This Deliverable presents the results of Task 22where two approaches aiming to improve forecasts of weather variables through an increase of the spatial and temporal resolution of the models are developed The models considered will be the classical NWP models advanced ensembles and also the largeeddy simulation approach

Approaches to distributed and collaborative renewable energy forecasting

This Deliverable presents the results of Task 41 where alternative approaches to distributed and collaborative learning and forecasting are proposed Statistical and machine learning approaches are to be considered Instead of sharing their data learning problems will be solved in a distributed manner One of the key challenges is to limit the computational burden and communication needs for those distributed learning problems Additional privacypreserving aspects will be considered to make sure that information may not be recovered through eg inverse optimization problems

Existing and new forecasting products: taxonomy and standardization

This Deliverable presents the results of Task 1.2 where new forecasting products are identified for WP2 and WP3 for different applications. Given the variety of applications where RES forecasts are used, this Deliverable aims to present results towards standardisation of the forecasting products so that the developed models are as replicable as possible in different contexts.

Communication and Dissemination Master Plan

This Deliverable presents the detailed Communication and Dissemination Master Plan (CDMP) developed in Task 7.1. It outlines the project’s communication and dissemination activities, detailing the composition of the target groups and defining the communication tools and distribution channels to reach them. The CDMP will be subject to two updates following the Innovation Board meetings, in order to fine tune the dissemination objectives with the content of the project results and include potential new communication tools that may appear over time.

Methodologies for short-term solar resource forecasting by merging various inputs

This Deliverable presents the results of Task 23 and includes 1 The results of an advanced analysis of camera images for cloud characterisation New retrieval algorithms from sky camera networks are developed in order to provide highly spatially and temporally resolved nowcasts of solar irradiance able to cover large areas ie areas covered by distribution grids 2 The results of new algorithms developed to combine data from different sources sky imaging networks satellite and NWP products targeting to improve irradiance forecasts across different timescales

Joint dispatch of RES and storage technologies towards a multi-service approach

This Deliverable presents the results of Task 51 where the aim is to develop a multiobjective optimization approach suitable for large RES power plant operators with integrated storage capacity The method considers RES forecast uncertainty and various options to valorise the produced energy like delivery contracts in place provision of flexibility etc The application of machine learning techniques are explored The Deliverable includes also an optimization approach that modifies the settings of specific services of battery storage and RES inverters by taking also under consideration power ensembles forecasts from WP3 In addition multiple services ie FCR FRR RR synthetic inertia etc will be specified and designed for a battery inverter which will cover the requirements of isolated systems

Website of the project

This Deliverable is the operational online public website of the project (www.smart4res.eu). The released version will contain information on the project are news from the first period of the project.

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Publications

Online forecast reconciliation in wind power prediction

Author(s): Chiara Di Modica, Pierre Pinson, Souhaib Ben Taieb
Published in: Electric Power Systems Research, 190, 2021, Page(s) 106637, ISSN 0378-7796
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2020.106637

Forecasting and Market Design Advances: Supporting an Increasing Share of Renewable Energy.

Author(s): Jack Fox; Erik Ela; Ben Hobbs; Justin Sharp; Josh Novacheck; Amber Motley; Ricardo J. Bessa; Pierre Pinson; Georges Kariniotakis
Published in: IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, 2021, ISSN 1558-4216
Publisher: IEEE
DOI: 10.1109/mpe.2021.3104132

A Hybrid Solar Irradiance Nowcasting Approach: Combining All Sky Imager Systems and Persistence Irradiance Models for Increased Accuracy

Author(s): Bijan Nouri, Niklas Blum, Stefan Wilbert, Luis F. Zarzalejo
Published in: Solar RRL, 2021, Page(s) 2100442, ISSN 2367-198X
Publisher: Wiley-VCH GmbH
DOI: 10.1002/solr.202100442

Measurement of diffuse and plane of array irradiance by a combination of a pyranometer and an all-sky imager

Author(s): Blum, Niklas; Wilbert, Stefan; Nouri, Bijan; Lezaca, Jorge; Huckebrink, David; Kazantzidis, Andreas; Heinemann, Detlev; Zarzalejo, L. F.; Jiménez, María José; Pitz-Paal, Robert
Published in: Solar Energy, 232, 2022, ISSN 0038-092X
Publisher: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2021.11.064

Uncertainty of shortwave cloud radiative impact due to the parameterization of liquid cloud optical properties

Author(s): Jahangir, E., Libois, Q., Couvreux, F., Vié, B., & Saint-Martin, D
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 13, 2021, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021ms002742

A critical overview of privacy-preserving approaches for collaborative forecasting

Author(s): Carla Gonçalves, Ricardo J. Bessa, Pierre Pinson
Published in: International Journal of Forecasting, 37/1, 2021, Page(s) 322-342, ISSN 0169-2070
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.06.003

Cloud height measurement by a network of all-sky imagers

Author(s): Niklas Benedikt Blum, Bijan Nouri, Stefan Wilbert, Thomas Schmidt, Ontje Lünsdorf, Jonas Stührenberg, Detlev Heinemann, Andreas Kazantzidis, Robert Pitz-Paal
Published in: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 14/7, 2021, Page(s) 5199-5224, ISSN 1867-8548
Publisher: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
DOI: 10.5194/amt-14-5199-2021

Prescriptive Trees for Integrated Forecasting and Optimization Applied in Trading of Renewable Energy.

Author(s): Stratigakos, Akylas; Camal, Simon; Michiorri, Andrea & Kariniotakis, George.
Published in: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2022, ISSN 1558-0679
Publisher: IEEE
DOI: 10.1109/tpwrs.2022.3152667

Privacy-Preserving Distributed Learning for Renewable Energy Forecasting

Author(s): Carla Gonçalves; Ricardo J. Bessa; Pierre Pinson
Published in: IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 12, 2021, Page(s) 1777-1787, ISSN 1949-3037
Publisher: IEEE
DOI: 10.1109/tste.2021.3065117

Forecasting conditional extreme quantiles for wind energy

Author(s): Carla Gonçalves, Laura Cavalcante, Margarida Brito, Ricardo J. Bessa, João Gama
Published in: Electric Power Systems Research, 190, 2021, ISSN 0378-7796
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2020.106636

Towards Data Markets in Renewable Energy Forecasting

Author(s): Carla Goncalves, Pierre Pinson, Ricardo J. Bessa
Published in: IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 12/1, 2021, Page(s) 533-542, ISSN 1949-3029
Publisher: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
DOI: 10.1109/tste.2020.3009615

A benchmark for multivariate probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts

Author(s): Dennis van der Meer; Dennis van der Meer
Published in: Solar Energy, 225, 2021, ISSN 0038-092X
Publisher: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2021.07.010

Regression markets and application to energy forecasting

Author(s): Pinson, P., Han, L. & Kazempour, J.
Published in: TOP, 2022, ISSN 1863-8279
Publisher: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s11750-022-00631-7

Applying self-supervised learning for semantic cloud segmentation of all-sky images

Author(s): Yann Fabel, Bijan Nouri, Stefan Wilbert, Niklas Blum, Rudolph Triebel, Marcel Hasenbalg, Pascal Kuhn, Luis F. Zarzalejo, and Robert Pitz-Paal
Published in: Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 2022, Page(s) 797-809, ISSN 1867-8548
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/amt-15-797-2022

Generalizing Renewable Energy Forecasting Using Automatic Feature Selection and Combination

Author(s): Van der Meer, Dennis; Camal, Simon; Kariniotakis, George
Published in: 17th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2022, 2022
Publisher: PMAPS
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6451891

Smart4RES: Towards next generation forecasting tools of renewable energy production

Author(s): Georges Kariniotakis; Simon Camal; Ricardo J. Bessa; Pierre Pinson; Gregor Giebel; Quentin Libois; Raphaël Legrand; Matthias Lange; Stefan Wilbert; Bijan Nouri; Alexandre Neto; Remco Verzijlbergh; Ganesh Sauba; George Sideratos; Efrosyni Korka; Stéphanie Petit
Published in: EGU General Assembly 2020, 2020
Publisher: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20205

Seamless intra-day and day-ahead multivariate probabilistic forecasts at high temporal resolution

Author(s): Van der Meer, Dennis; Camal, Simon; Kariniotakis, George
Published in: 17th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2022, 2022
Publisher: PMAPS International Society
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6451913

Smart4RES: Improved weather modelling and forecasting dedicated to renewable energy applications

Author(s): Kariniotakis, George; Camal, Simon; Bessa, Ricardo; Pinson, Pierre; Giebel, Gregor; Libois, Quentin; Legrand, Raphael; Cassas, Marie; Raynaud, Laure; Lange, Matthias; Wilbert, Stefan; Nouri, Bijan; Neto, Alexandre; Verzijlbergh, Remco; Sauba, Ganesh; Sideratos, George; Korka, Efrosyni; Petit, Stephanie
Published in: EGU General Assembly 2021, 2021
Publisher: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16219

Monetizing Customer Load Data for an Energy Retailer: A Cooperative Game Approach

Author(s): Liyang, Han; Jalal, Kazempour; Pierre, Pinson
Published in: 2021 IEEE Madrid PowerTech Conference, 2021
Publisher: IEEE

Data Science for Next Generation Renewable Energy Forecasting - Highlight Results from the Smart4RES Project

Author(s): Kariniotakis, George; Camal, Simon; Sossan, Fabrizio; Nouri, Bijan; Lezaca, Jorge; Lange, Matthias; Alonzo, Bastien; Libois, Quentin; Pinson, Pierre; Bessa, Ricardo; Goncalves, Carla
Published in: 11th International Workshop on Integration of Solar Power into Power Systems, EnergyNautics GmbH, Sep 2021, Berlin, Germany, 2022, Page(s) 181-184, ISBN 978-1-83953-680-9
Publisher: IET
DOI: 10.1049/icp.2021.2499

Trading Data for Wind Power Forecasting: A Regression Market with Lasso Regularization

Author(s): Liyang Han, Pierre Pinson, Jalal Kazempour
Published in: Electric Power Systems Research, 2022, ISSN 0378-7796
Publisher: Elsevier

Smart4RES: Next generation solutions for renewable energy forecasting and applications with focus on distribution grids

Author(s): Simon Camal, Georges Kariniotakis, Fabrizio Sossan, Quentin Libois, Raphael Legrand, et al.
Published in: CIRED 2021 - The 26th International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution, 2021, ISBN 978-1-83953-591-8
Publisher: IET
DOI: 10.1049/icp.2021.1829

A Value-Oriented Price Forecasting Approach to Optimize Trading of Renewable Generation

Author(s): Akylas, Stratigakos; Andrea, Michiorri; Georges, Kariniotakis
Published in: 2021 IEEE Madrid PowerTech Conference, 2021
Publisher: IEEE

Adaptive Generalized Logit-Normal Distributions for Wind Power Short-Term Forecasting

Author(s): Pierrot, Amandine; Pinson, Pierre
Published in: 2021 IEEE Madrid PowerTech Conference, 1, 2021
Publisher: IEEE

Probabilistic Forecasting of Regional Wind Power Generation for the EEM20 Competition: a Physics-oriented Machine Learning Approach

Author(s): Kevin Bellinguer, Valentin Mahler, Simon Camal, Georges Kariniotakis
Published in: 2020 17th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 2020, Page(s) 1-6, ISBN 978-1-7281-6919-4
Publisher: IEEE
DOI: 10.1109/eem49802.2020.9221960