Genes, genealogies and the evolution of demographic change and social inequality

Project Information

GENPOP

Grant agreement ID: 865356

DOI

10.3030/865356

EC signature date 3 March 2020

Start date 1 October 2020

End date 30 September 2026

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 1 985 705,98

EU contribution

€ 1 985 705,98

Coordinated by

ALMA MATER STUDIORUM - UNIVERSITA DI BOLOGNA
Italy

Periodic Reporting for period 3 - GENPOP (Genes, genealogies and the evolution of demographic change and social inequality)

Reporting period: 2023-10-01 to 2025-03-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

The GENPOP project addresses the long-term evolution of population processes through the analysis of historical and contemporary data. It focuses on how population dynamics like fertility and mortality have evolved over generations, impacting demographic changes and social inequalities. Traditional demographic research often overlooks the multi-generational aspect, missing out on a comprehensive understanding of these trends.

Importance for Society

Understanding the evolution of demographic trends is crucial for society as these patterns have profound implications for social structures, economic development, and public policies. By examining the long-term effects of population changes, the project aims to provide insights into persistent social inequalities, health disparities, and the impact of family dynamics on society. This understanding is essential for designing effective policies and interventions to address current and future societal challenges.

Overall Objectives

The main objectives of GENPOP are to develop a new theoretical model for analyzing demographic changes and to investigate the long-term impact of these changes on family networks and social structures. The project seeks to:

1. Analyze the multi-generational transmission of fertility and longevity within families.
2. Examine the diversity within families and its persistence across generations.
3. Study the long-term effects of migration on family networks and social structures.
4. Describe patterns of assortative mating (spousal similarity) over the last two centuries.
5. Utilize innovative Big Data sources, like internet-based genealogies and micro-census data, to understand these demographic phenomena.

This research is expected to challenge existing theories and contribute significantly to the fields of demography, sociology, and social policy. The project's focus on the historical period from approximately 1800 to the present in Europe and the United States offers a unique perspective on how dramatic demographic and epidemiological changes have shaped modern societies.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

The majority of the team’s research efforts have been devoted to the analysis of online-based genealogical data. This work has already led to several significant publications in leading demographic journals, including Demography, Demographic Research, and The History of the Family. Additional manuscripts have been submitted to prominent international journals and are currently under peer review. Further articles are in preparation and are expected to be submitted in the coming months.

A second major line of research has focused on the analysis of historical demographic sources, particularly parish records. Our team has been actively engaged in the digitization and classification of hundreds of thousands of archival images spanning the period from the 1600s to the 1900s. We are currently employing artificial intelligence technologies to transcribe this material and make it accessible to the broader scientific community. Preliminary findings and an overview of this ambitious project have been presented at major international conferences, including the Population Association of America Annual Meeting and the Social Science History Association Conference.

Throughout the 2023–2024 academic year, the GENPOP project hosted a series of seminars featuring distinguished international scholars. These events have provided the research team with valuable exposure to cutting-edge developments in demography, data science, and historical analysis, and have helped shape the intellectual trajectory of the project.
On May 11–12, 2022, GENPOP organized the European Social Science Genetics Network Conference, which brought together approximately 40 international speakers. The conference served not only as a major scholarly event but also as a platform for disseminating early findings from the project.

In addition, several team members undertook research visits to leading academic institutions—including the University of Oxford, the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, the University of Toronto, and the University of California, Davis. These exchanges fostered collaboration, enhanced the visibility of the project, and significantly contributed to its development and impact within the field of population studies.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

Additional efforts have been directed toward the acquisition of new genealogical data from Geni.com as part of a collaborative initiative involving researchers from several European universities. This collaboration aims to expand the empirical foundation of the project and foster comparative research across different national contexts. In the coming months, we plan to engage in a systematic data harmonization process to integrate diverse genealogical datasets. The ultimate goal is to produce a comprehensive publication that evaluates the potential and limitations of genealogical data for social science research, offering methodological insights and illustrating novel applications across disciplines.

logo