Towards a Third Nuclear Age? Strategic Conventional Weapons and the Next Revolution in Global Nuclear Order

Project Information

NUCLEARREV

Grant agreement ID: 866155

DOI

10.3030/866155

Project closed

EC signature date 24 February 2020

Start date 1 August 2020

End date 31 January 2026

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 1 642 826,00

EU contribution

€ 1 642 826,00

Coordinated by

UNIVERSITY OF LEICESTER
United Kingdom

Periodic Reporting for period 3 - NUCLEARREV (Towards a Third Nuclear Age? Strategic Conventional Weapons and the Next Revolution in Global Nuclear Order)

Reporting period: 2023-08-01 to 2025-01-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

The world stands on the cusp of a major transformation in nuclear affairs. This paradigmatic shift is being driven by the development and deployment of an entirely new class of strategic weaponry and a very different real-time nuclear information ecosystem, both facilitated by the latest information revolution. The most important characteristics of the new weapons and their support systems are that they are hi-tech and non-nuclear; that they can be used against an adversary’s nuclear forces; that they are increasingly able to augment and even replace nuclear weapons for national security functions; and that they are being deployed into a nuclear information space where time pressures and the risks of miscalculation and inadvertent nuclear use is increasing.
We can think of these systems as Strategic Conventional Weapons (SCW), and when combined with developments in nuclear weapons technology, as representing a fundamental challenge to the way that our nuclear world is and will be managed. SCW include but are not necessarily limited to: the spread of active ballistic missile defences; prompt precision strike weapons on land, in the air, in space and under the sea; a new suite of more manoeuvrable and faster hypersonic warheads; new possibilities offered by “cyber” and Artificial Intelligence in the nuclear realm (both as or within weapons and support systems), and potentially other new “exotic” disruptive emerging technologies too.

The development and deployment of SCW raise questions about how we think about nuclear risk, and especially for deterrence strategy, Mutually Assured Destruction, arms racing and arms control, escalation and crisis management, and how to prevent nuclear weapons from being used again. At the same time, the SCW challenge opens up new avenues and possible pathways towards nuclear disarmament.
The project will provide the first systematic study of SCW and associated technologies, make the case for a paradigmatic shift in nuclear studies, and set the stage for a complete rethinking of the global nuclear order. The research question of this project is: How will SCW change the Global Nuclear Order? Its objectives are to:
• Put together a diverse team to chart the SCW phenomenon, globally;
• Analyse how SCW will impact regional nuclear relations and balances;
• Examine what the development of SCW means for the frameworks, dogma, and orthodoxy that govern international nuclear relations;
• Make the case for a revolution in nuclear affairs and define the embryonic Third Nuclear Age.
• Build global intellectual capacity and train the next generation of experts on this issue.
This research will provide the landmark study of this phenomenon and the centrepiece for a whole new generation of interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary work on nuclear affairs.

The project employs a multi-methods approach of semi-structured interviews, an innovative War Game exercise, as well as archival research and Regional Feedback Workshops. It is global in nature and includes analysis of SCW in the Euro-Atlantic, South Asia, Northeast Asia and the Middle East.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

The period covered by this mid-term report (August 2020-March 2023) corresponds to Work Package 1 and part of Work Package 2 of NUCLEARREV.

During Work Package 1 (months 1-18): team was hired and assembled, the PI and team conceptualised and mapped out the technological challenges posed to global nuclear order by novel weapons technologies, and began disseminating these research findings. During WP1 the scientific focus of project evolved by deciding to include geopolitical and normative factors alongside technological change in the understanding of the challenge to global nuclear order.

During Work Package 2 (months 19-36) the team began to analyse the regional dimensions of this challenge to global nuclear order, exploring and analysing how different actors in different parts of the world were responding, shaping and understanding the ongoing technological, political and normative changes to the nuclear order.

The main results so far are threefold:

First, the team has met all of the original objectives and goals outlined in the proposal, on time: mapping out and conceptualising novel weapons technologies.

Second, the team have produced a suite of high-level publications during this period, ranging from peer-reviewed journal articles to professional and media publications, as well as a co-authored book that will be submitted in summer 2023.

Third, the project has evolved in exciting ways that were unforeseen at the start; particularly the engagement with geopolitics and norms, and the expansion of the intellectual field of enquiry to include Global South states and a focus on nuclear power as well as nuclear weapons.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

NUCLEARREV has already made significant contributions to the state of the art, the literature and the climate of ideas around the study of nuclear politics. The teams work on the nuances of “emerging and disruptive technologies” and the importance of “techno-politics” in Work Package 1 being two particularly important examples. The initial findings from Work Package 2, namely that global nuclear politics is experienced very differently in different parts of the world – and that different actors have different “pathways to security” in this emerging context - is also a genuinely novel insight into what is often an overtly Western-dominated intellectual field. Findings from the first two Work Packages are already feeding into the bigger idea of what the Third Nuclear Age looks like that will be addressed later in the project.

The second half of NUCLEARREV (up until August 2025), is focussed on Work Package 3 (Challenging global nuclear orthodoxy) and Work Package 4 (Defining the Third Nuclear Age). The two main outputs planned during this period are an edited book drawn from a high-level conference that the team will convene in September 2023, and a single-author capstone monograph produced by the PI that will be the finalised in 2025.

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