The first holistic restaurant forecasting tool to reduce food waste by predicting future demand

Project Information

Prognolite

Grant agreement ID: 867163

DOI

10.3030/867163

Project closed

EC signature date 6 May 2019

Start date 1 May 2019

End date 31 August 2019

Funded under

• INDUSTRIAL LEADERSHIP - Innovation In SMEs

Total cost

€ 71 429,00

EU contribution

€ 50 000,00

Coordinated by

PROGNOLITE GmbH
Switzerland

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - Prognolite (The first holistic restaurant forecasting tool to reduce food waste by predicting future demand)

Reporting period: 2019-05-01 to 2019-08-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

Restaurant demand forecasting involves analysing historical information using quantitative and qualitative methods, an exercise that is often inaccurate, highly dependent on staff’s experience and very time consuming. While digital demand forecasting solutions that automate and improve accuracy of this tedious process now exist, they offer a fragmented experience and in most cases are very expensive and complex.
Based on advanced machine learning algorithms and key influencing factors such as historical data, weather, holidays, vacation time and significant events, Prognolite predicts a restaurant future demand with high precision (92%), contributing to 1) reduce overproduction by 70%, 2) reduce total food waste by 50% (30gr savings per meal), and 3) adapt the staff planning to the real demand by suggesting the most appropriate work shift.
A feasibility study is needed to confirm that there is a real market opportunity for the product whilst the conditions for the commercialisation are beneficial.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

Creation of a work plan of technical activities needed to complete the innovation, divided in three main areas: software automation, addition of new features, development of new POS integrations, and testing and validation.
According to the market analysis, the total turnover of the EU restaurant industry that year was €280 billion The leading countries are France, UK, Germany, Italy and Spain. The DACH market (Germany, Austria and Switzerland) offers the perfect conditions to test the solution before the geographical expansion to other markets.
The freedom-to-operate demonstrates that Prognolite is not-infringing patents or pending patent applications of others. The company has decided to keep the confidentiality of the new innovative features by protecting its software through copyright.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

Prognolite has a remarkable impact in the restaurant business performance by 1) reducing the food costs by 3% (up to €6,500/year for an average restaurant), 2) saving 5-15% in staff costs depending on the staff volume (up to €40,000/year for an average restaurant), and 3) improving the overall customer experience.
Prognolite is expected to generate €122.1M of revenues during the period 2021-2025, and a total net profit of €44.5M. Moreover, the project will have a remarkable impact on Prognolite´s performance, allowing to accelerate the release of its innovative system to the market to accomplish the goal of becoming a worldwide leader in restaurant demand forecasting.