Periodic Reporting for period 3 - DRYvER (Securing biodiversity, functional integrity and ecosystem services in DRYing rivER networks)
Reporting period: 2023-09-01 to 2025-02-28
River networks are among Earth’s most threatened hot-spots of biodiversity. They act as ecological corridors for species and safeguard biodiversity by linking terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems down to the sea. River networks also contribute substantially to the carbon cycle and provide key ecosystem services (e.g. drinking water and food, climate regulation).
Over 60% of the global river network include channels prone to drying and this is dramatically increasing worldwide. Shifts from permanent to intermittent flow regimes represent major tipping points for rivers, but drying river networks (DRNs) have received little attention from scientists and policy makers, and the public is unaware of their importance. There is no effective integrated biodiversity conservation or ecosystem management strategy of DRNs facing climate change.
The objective of DRYvER is to investigate how biodiversity, ecosystem functions, ecosystem services and their values in DRNs are altered by climate change through empirical and modelling work at relevant spatial and temporal scales. DRYvER will provide knowledge-based strategies and tools for cost-effective adaptive management of DRNs.
Over 60% of the global river network include channels prone to drying and this is dramatically increasing worldwide. Shifts from permanent to intermittent flow regimes represent major tipping points for rivers, but drying river networks (DRNs) have received little attention from scientists and policy makers, and the public is unaware of their importance. There is no effective integrated biodiversity conservation or ecosystem management strategy of DRNs facing climate change.
The objective of DRYvER is to investigate how biodiversity, ecosystem functions, ecosystem services and their values in DRNs are altered by climate change through empirical and modelling work at relevant spatial and temporal scales. DRYvER will provide knowledge-based strategies and tools for cost-effective adaptive management of DRNs.
WP1 Hydrological trajectories of DRNs under climate change
• Hydrological trajectories in the 6 European DRNs considered in DRYvER and in Brazil have been modelled. Monitoring networks were implemented in the DRNs in Ecuador and Bolivia.
• A global model was calibrated to quantify the amount of flow intermittence across river networks. Results of flow intermittence projections under climate change scenarios in the European DRNs were analyzed.
• For the continental scale, based on WaterGAP historical outputs and ISMIP framework, models were set-up, and future hydrological projections were run over the period 1985-2100. Results show that the number of non-perennial months increases in the future for both RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 and that mitigating climate change by achieving a low emissions scenario would strongly reduce the projected changes in the modelled European reaches.
WP2 Predicting biodiversity changes in DRNs
• Based on empirical data collected in each European DRN, a dynamic metacommunity model was developed and calibrated to investigate biodiversity changes. The model was coupled with empirical hydrological data for each EU DRN and developing a graphical tool to explore meta-community dynamics under current drying conditions.
• The identification of microbes and macroinvertebrates and the description of their environments led to the generation of two large databases. Their analysis at the DRN scale served to assess global responses to drying using taxonomic and functional richness, β-diversity and metacommunity organization for macroinvertebrates.
• Upscaled methodologies were implemented with biodiversity metrics for microbes, macroinvertebrates and fish using random forest models to have a common strategy in predicting and upscaling biodiversity patterns from focal DRNs to Europe under current and future drying scenarios.
WP3 Predicting changes of ecosystem functions in DRNs
• The 6 DRNs were sampled to measure stream metabolism, green-house gas emissions and organic matter dynamics and decomposition. CELAC partners carried out particulate organic matter decomposition experiments. Laboratory and data analysis were implemented.
• A meta-ecosystem model (“I-Flume”) was created to analyse the influence of flow intermittence on interactions between stream biota and resources in digital river networks.
• A database containing all data produced in WP3 has been prepared and was submitted to IRBAS to make WP3 data open access.
WP4 Ecosystem services of DRN and their values networks
• A conceptual model of ecosystem services provision in DRNs was generated, along with a high-level conceptual framework for valuation of ecosystem services in DRNs. Partners upscaled 3 ecosystem services, respectively water provisioning, flood regulation, and drought regulation, used at the focal DRN level to the EU scale. Water purification was added as a fourth ecosystem services due to its alignment with the Water Framework Directive.
• This model was applied at the DRN level through interdisciplinary workshops. The surveys operationalized the valuation framework, providing value estimates for ecosystem services and related attributes of DRNs
• The potential for using benefit transfers as a core method for providing benefit estimates of ecosystem services and related attributes of DRNs across the EU was reviewed, and criteria for their implementation were developed
WP5 Adaptive Management of DRNs
• A catalogue of Nature-Based Solutions was created. The catalogue as well as the BBN provide a good starting point for improving the evidence base for adaptive management of DRNs.
• Stakeholder mapping was used to support co-creation activities. The co-creation workshops allowed the high-level policy coherence analysis carried out to be contextualized to DRNs, and identify the needs for improved nature education, monitoring of DRN relevant metrics, and clear, transparent governance structures across Europe.
WP6 Communication, dissemination, and capacity building
• • 123 press communication campaign actions, 8 popularization papers, 8 exhibitions, 12 types of rollups, 13 factsheets, 10 stakeholder workshops, 70 short news on the website, 23 infographics, 761 social media posts, 20 videos and 6 newsletters.
• 30 articles in peer-reviewed scientific journals. DRYvER-articles were cited 551 times. 190 conference oral (122) or poster (26) presentations and standalone talks (42). At least 7 more manuscripts are currently under review. A special session was dedicated to DRYvER at the 4th CESAMIR conference.
• 6 calls for Short-Term Scientific Missions to support the mobility of 10 young researchers.
• UP organized the Training School program in Pécs, Hungary with 30 participants
• DRYvER produced 2 policy briefs (European Water Resilience Strategy + recommendations on intermittent streams in water management policies)
• DRYRivERS citizen science mobile application is being regularly updated.
• Hydrological trajectories in the 6 European DRNs considered in DRYvER and in Brazil have been modelled. Monitoring networks were implemented in the DRNs in Ecuador and Bolivia.
• A global model was calibrated to quantify the amount of flow intermittence across river networks. Results of flow intermittence projections under climate change scenarios in the European DRNs were analyzed.
• For the continental scale, based on WaterGAP historical outputs and ISMIP framework, models were set-up, and future hydrological projections were run over the period 1985-2100. Results show that the number of non-perennial months increases in the future for both RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 and that mitigating climate change by achieving a low emissions scenario would strongly reduce the projected changes in the modelled European reaches.
WP2 Predicting biodiversity changes in DRNs
• Based on empirical data collected in each European DRN, a dynamic metacommunity model was developed and calibrated to investigate biodiversity changes. The model was coupled with empirical hydrological data for each EU DRN and developing a graphical tool to explore meta-community dynamics under current drying conditions.
• The identification of microbes and macroinvertebrates and the description of their environments led to the generation of two large databases. Their analysis at the DRN scale served to assess global responses to drying using taxonomic and functional richness, β-diversity and metacommunity organization for macroinvertebrates.
• Upscaled methodologies were implemented with biodiversity metrics for microbes, macroinvertebrates and fish using random forest models to have a common strategy in predicting and upscaling biodiversity patterns from focal DRNs to Europe under current and future drying scenarios.
WP3 Predicting changes of ecosystem functions in DRNs
• The 6 DRNs were sampled to measure stream metabolism, green-house gas emissions and organic matter dynamics and decomposition. CELAC partners carried out particulate organic matter decomposition experiments. Laboratory and data analysis were implemented.
• A meta-ecosystem model (“I-Flume”) was created to analyse the influence of flow intermittence on interactions between stream biota and resources in digital river networks.
• A database containing all data produced in WP3 has been prepared and was submitted to IRBAS to make WP3 data open access.
WP4 Ecosystem services of DRN and their values networks
• A conceptual model of ecosystem services provision in DRNs was generated, along with a high-level conceptual framework for valuation of ecosystem services in DRNs. Partners upscaled 3 ecosystem services, respectively water provisioning, flood regulation, and drought regulation, used at the focal DRN level to the EU scale. Water purification was added as a fourth ecosystem services due to its alignment with the Water Framework Directive.
• This model was applied at the DRN level through interdisciplinary workshops. The surveys operationalized the valuation framework, providing value estimates for ecosystem services and related attributes of DRNs
• The potential for using benefit transfers as a core method for providing benefit estimates of ecosystem services and related attributes of DRNs across the EU was reviewed, and criteria for their implementation were developed
WP5 Adaptive Management of DRNs
• A catalogue of Nature-Based Solutions was created. The catalogue as well as the BBN provide a good starting point for improving the evidence base for adaptive management of DRNs.
• Stakeholder mapping was used to support co-creation activities. The co-creation workshops allowed the high-level policy coherence analysis carried out to be contextualized to DRNs, and identify the needs for improved nature education, monitoring of DRN relevant metrics, and clear, transparent governance structures across Europe.
WP6 Communication, dissemination, and capacity building
• • 123 press communication campaign actions, 8 popularization papers, 8 exhibitions, 12 types of rollups, 13 factsheets, 10 stakeholder workshops, 70 short news on the website, 23 infographics, 761 social media posts, 20 videos and 6 newsletters.
• 30 articles in peer-reviewed scientific journals. DRYvER-articles were cited 551 times. 190 conference oral (122) or poster (26) presentations and standalone talks (42). At least 7 more manuscripts are currently under review. A special session was dedicated to DRYvER at the 4th CESAMIR conference.
• 6 calls for Short-Term Scientific Missions to support the mobility of 10 young researchers.
• UP organized the Training School program in Pécs, Hungary with 30 participants
• DRYvER produced 2 policy briefs (European Water Resilience Strategy + recommendations on intermittent streams in water management policies)
• DRYRivERS citizen science mobile application is being regularly updated.
DRYvER builds on EU efforts to investigate how climate change has cascading impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem functions and ecosystem services (and their values) of DRNs. The main progress beyond the state of the art and impact include:
• collection, analysis and modelling of data from nine DRNs in Europe and South America to create a novel global meta-system approach that incorporates hydrology, socio-economics, ecology and biogeochemistry in order to craft strategies, tools and recommendations for adaptive management of river networks.
• Working in collaboration with water resource managers and citizens to co-develop new strategies to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change on DRNs by integrating quantitative and qualitative perspectives, including nature-based solutions with a strong socio-economic and legislative component. DRYvER will provide knowledge-based strategies and tools for cost-effective adaptive management of DRNs in the EU and worldwide.
Ultimately, DRYvER should contribute to the 2015 Paris Agreement objectives, which stress the need to protect biodiversity and secure the functional integrity of ecosystems, while fighting against climate change and adapting to its impacts.
• collection, analysis and modelling of data from nine DRNs in Europe and South America to create a novel global meta-system approach that incorporates hydrology, socio-economics, ecology and biogeochemistry in order to craft strategies, tools and recommendations for adaptive management of river networks.
• Working in collaboration with water resource managers and citizens to co-develop new strategies to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change on DRNs by integrating quantitative and qualitative perspectives, including nature-based solutions with a strong socio-economic and legislative component. DRYvER will provide knowledge-based strategies and tools for cost-effective adaptive management of DRNs in the EU and worldwide.
Ultimately, DRYvER should contribute to the 2015 Paris Agreement objectives, which stress the need to protect biodiversity and secure the functional integrity of ecosystems, while fighting against climate change and adapting to its impacts.