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LAND-use based MitigAtion for Resilient Climate pathways

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - LANDMARC (LAND-use based MitigAtion for Resilient Climate pathways)

Reporting period: 2020-07-01 to 2021-12-31

LANDMARC aims to better understand the potential and impacts of land-use-based mitigation technologies and practices (LMTs). LMTs seek to avoid and reduce the release of greenhouse gases (GHG) and/or capture GHG from the atmosphere. The project also seeks to understand their associated societal, economic, and environmental co-benefits.

LANDMARC deploys interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research, through co-creation with stakeholders, made up of three pillars addressing our main objectives:
1. Identify feasibility of LMTs: carried out with extensive stakeholder engagement.
2. Assess carbon sequestration potential, the ability to capture GHG from the atmosphere through earth observations (EO) techniques.
3. Quantify LMT potential: assesses the potential and barriers for scaling up technologies and practices from local to global levels, through simulation modeling.

1. Feasibility of LMT applications
Stakeholder engagement is mainly driven by social sciences, but also support EO and simulation modeling work, by collecting complementary data/information (EO, land-use, economic, etc. data) - and through the co-development of realistic scenarios for scaling up LMT portfolios. This work is complemented by our communication and dissemination work.

2. Carbon sequestration potential
The EO pillar relies heavily on earth systems monitoring, above-ground remote sensing (satellite and drones), and below ground soil/vegetation sciences (soil sampling), to better map and monitor the carbon cycle in soils and vegetation.

3. Quantification
Simulation modeling will enable us to better understand the range of impacts through the use- and coupling of biogeochemical models, land use cumulative effects models, climate models, and macro-economic models. These are associated with scaling up LMT portfolios at different levels of aggregation (i.e. local to continental/global).

LANDMARC’s work has the potential to bring important social and policy changes by linking stakeholders’ existing adaptation (e.g. forest management), or other economic activities (farming/forestry), to mitigation efforts. LMTS are not typically considered as mitigation practices or as contributors to net carbon sinks. Thus, we help stakeholders to assess the carbon mitigation and net sink potential through a combination of earth observation and modeling tools and provide new business models to capture both the economic and social co-benefits of LMTs.

We then present policy mixes to promote the implementation and/or scaling up of LMTs. We also assess the risks, opportunities, and sometimes difficult trade-offs related to the LMTs. Our insights will support the policy-making processes in determining the types of LMTs that have short, medium, and longer-term mitigation impacts, and the policies that need to be phased in to support them.
Our current work performed (key outputs) and related ongoing impacts are listed below:

- 16 country case study leaflets (WP2) => these help promote LANDMARC’s case studies and draw stakeholders to the website
- 8 drafts for journal articles (WP5, WP6, WP7) => contribution to scientific methods for assessing LMT potential, methodology papers to promote modeling and stakeholder engagement, and modeling and scenario development
- 213 stakeholder engagement activities: 5 conferences, 17 workshops, 6 site visits/soil sampling sites,103(online) meetings, 30 interviews, and 52 other => promote co-development of narratives for scenario model runs for feasible LMT pathways, data collection, and promote LANDMARC’s results for social-economic impact for land-use managers
- 3 targeted policy report submissions to: the EU consultation for the carbon farming roadmap, for an EU policy officer on land based carbon dioxide removal, and the UK Parliament’s Environmental Audit Committee => potential policy development impact
- Building a platform integrating data from satellite sources (Sentinel 1&2 and LST), which processes satellite images (e.g. calculating biomass, vegetation height, and water stress), carries out statistical analysis and stores all satellite data => a tool integration aims to reduce costs, improve measurement accuracy, cover a larger area and optimizes the measurement of carbon
- 1 GIS web viewer for geo-referencing information => promote interdisciplinary and cross-case study learning and shared platform/information with stakeholders
- 4 external project collaborations in/outside Europe => share project results and promote synergies on implementing and scaling up LMTs
- 2 website developments: LANDMARC’s project website, climatechangemitigation.eu to promote the long-term impact of LANDMARC and other EU funded research => increase visibility of LANDMARC’S work as well as other EU funded work on mitigation
While most impacts are anticipated in the second part of our project, we have ongoing impacts within the first reporting period, summarised below:

Pillar 1 Feasibility of LMT applications (stakeholders): We are carrying out transdisciplinary research, working closely with stakeholders to co-develop the LMTs narratives for our 16 case studies. Currently, we are consulting stakeholders, identifying the potential for feasible, national LMT portfolios. Through an extensive literature review process we defined 5 LMT categories with 13 detailed LMTs . Co-defining the case studies and defining the 13 LMTs is an important step forward as land-based technologies/practices are not defined as a group of mitigation, and carbon sinks potential, in literature or empirically. Instead, they are often discussed individually and within the context of biodiversity and/or adaptation practices. A mitigation perspective could potentially place a new valuation and socio-economic opportunities on these LMTs.

Pillar 2 Carbon sequestration potential (EO): We identified 6 EO tools to monitor and validate CO2 mitigation and removal potential, including in-situ, remote sensing, and on-surface tools. The tools are being piloted on a select few case studies, extending to other case studies in the second half of the project. The innovation will be the application of expert tools to non-expert users, delivered cost-effectively. Many land-use managers are unaware of how their technologies and practices can contribute to mitigation and carbon sink potential. We want everyday land-use managers to benefit from their mitigation activities, and connect them to markets that value their LMT contributions to society and the environment.

Pillar 3 Quantification (simulation modeling): We are promoting interdisciplinary learning between case studies and modelers, and have developed a method to integrate stakeholders into the modeling process for continental scenarios. Case study leads and modelers were linked, allowing case study leads to learn about the essentials of the four models (DayCent, ALCES, LandSHIFT and E3ME) and, with modelers, determine which models were suitable for individual LMT and LMT portfolios. Modelers and case study leads have identified a unique model system for each case study, and currently case study leads are collecting data to set up initial model runs. Our global climate and land-use models are also being set up for model runs, and continental stakeholders will contribute to create the continental narratives. Co-developing narratives with stakeholders will lead to realistic LMT portfolio scenarios, potentially feeding into regional to global policy making.
landmarc 3 pillar diagram