To set the ground on state-of-the-art, multiple literature reviews were conducted on (i) the effects of climate change and local stressors on MCEs, (ii) methodological approaches for multi-risk and cumulative impact appraisal in MCEs, (iii) the evaluation of coastal communities’ adaptive capacity, (iv) NBSs’ social and economic effectiveness, and (v) the national to subnational policy framework for all case studies with a focus on biodiversity protection and climate change. In the field, biodiversity monitoring was implemented with cost-effective and non-intrusive techniques to sample at fine and large scales across a gradient of environmental conditions using a combination of eDNA, bioacoustics, visual census, remote sensing and palaeoclimatology.
The compilation of existing and collected data fed the application of advanced modelling approaches to explore the links between biodiversity and ecosystem services. Still, semi-quantitative conceptual models have been computed from expert knowledge and literature review to illustrate the complex interactions between climate change, local stressors and MCEs’ ecological components and how these ecosystems can be monitored (indicators linked to the Good Environmental State descriptors of the MSFD). Following the co-design of the multi-risks assessment framework (MRAF), all available data were analysed using Machine Learning-based models in the Mediterranean and Northern-Europe ecoregions under a baseline and future scenarios, considering both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 while fine scale spatio-temporal Bayesian Networks, co-designed and fine-tuned with local stakeholders have been developed to disentangle the ecosystem services capacity and flow under different ‘what-if’ scenarios in Italy, Spain and Martinique. Considering future scenarios, other frameworks have been designed for (i) applying index-based adaptive capacity assessment approaches, and (ii) identifying the appropriate interventions to address societal challenges in marine coastal socio-ecological systems (Potential Blue Interventions Support tool), supported by NBS suitability mapping.
Following the inventory of the most relevant stakeholders for the project, dialogue was initiated through online-based activities, including a public awareness survey on climate change to collect their concerns on the effects of climate change, and in-person through local and ecoregional workshops. Engagement has been conducted at international, national, and local levels, along with active cooperation with other projects. All the tools and outputs produced by the project have been gathered in our user-friendly MaCoBioS Blue NBS Toolbox and our work has been disseminated through many international conferences and scientific papers, with communication activities promoted through our website and its ‘News & Views’ section, promotional videos, a comic book, and social media presence, and culminating with the organisation of the Blue NBS week at UNESCO House, Paris, in November 2024.
