Objective
The research proposed here aims to investigate the usefulness of imprecise probability concepts for assessing and processing the large and diverse uncertainty that needs to be considered in climate policy analysis. Imprecise probabilities are constituted b y entire sets of probability measures. They provide a satisfactory model of complete ignorance, which is an important prerequisite for quantifying poor states of information such as encountered in climate change research. Classical probability theory faces severe difficulties in this field as the debate around quantifying uncertainties in the IPCC Assessment reports shows.
The project consists of a theoretical part to be mainly conducted at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, USA, (external host) and an applicational part to be executed at the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, Germany (return host). The theoretical part consists in an analysis of the decision theoretical as well as evidential basis of imprecise probabilities in the light of climate change. In the applied part, it will be investigated how the presence of ambiguity, i.e. imprecise information, can alter the results of model-based analyses of climate protection strategies and policy instruments.
The fellowship would help to transfer knowledge from one of the top research centres in decision and information sciences to the European research area. It would significantly improve the ability of the fellow to establish an excellent and independent research career in Europe. The proposed research on the science-policy interface in global climate change is highly relevant for the stated objectives of the Community.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- natural sciences earth and related environmental sciences environmental sciences sustainability sciences
- social sciences sociology governance crisis management
- natural sciences mathematics applied mathematics statistics and probability
- natural sciences earth and related environmental sciences atmospheric sciences climatology climatic changes
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Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
FP6-2002-MOBILITY-6
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Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
OIF - Marie Curie actions-Outgoing International Fellowships
Coordinator
60 12 03 POTSDAM
Germany
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.