Project description
Tree growth tracking to improve climate variability reconstruction
Tree rings represent a fundamental archive for the high-resolution reconstruction of climate alterability over the past 1–2 ka at regional and global levels. Accurate reconstructions require a constant relationship between tree growth and climate. However, during the second half of the 20th century, tree-ring width and density chronologies were not able to track the rapidly increasing temperatures in Northern Hemisphere forests. This phenomenon, called the "divergence" problem, questions the reliability of tree-ring based temperature reconstruction and our understanding of the earth’s climate response to anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The EU-funded MONOSTAR project will develop a model that simulates year-to-year and long-term alterations in both the tree-ring width and density of varying conifer species growing under diverse climate environments. The model will be combined with data from a new hemispheric network of tree-ring width and density chronology as well as in situ monitoring data.
Objective
Tree-rings are a key proxy archive for reconstructing high resolution climate variability over the past 1-2ka at regional to global scales. Skillful reconstructions require a stationary relationship between tree growth and climate (Huttons principle of uniformitarianism), which is commonly evaluated by statistical calibration/verification trials against instrumental measurements. This association, however, weakened during the second half of the 20th century, when tree-ring width and density chronologies from Northern Hemisphere forests were not able to track the rapidly increasing temperatures. This so-called divergence problem was identified in the 1990s to be a large-scale phenomenon, and not only questions the reliability of tree-ring based temperature reconstruction, but also affects our understanding of the Earths climate sensitivity to anthropogenic greenhouse gases. A conclusive explanation for this central problem of contemporary paleoclimate research is, however, still missing. Here, I propose to develop a process model that simulates year-to-year and long-term variations in both tree-ring width and density of different conifer species growing under different climate regimes. Evidence from this model will be combined with data from a new, hemispheric scale network of tree-ring width and density chronologies, as well as in-situ monitoring data, to train the model, validate synthetic timeseries, and analyze spatially varying influences of climatological, air chemical and ecological drivers on tree growth. Model-data fusion and inverse modelling techniques will be applied to quantify the non-linear mechanisms underlying divergence, and to deduce methodological recommendations that can be applied by any paleoclimatologist, working with different species and in different regions of the Northern Hemisphere, to mitigate late 20th century divergence and thus improve their climate reconstructions.
Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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H2020-EU.1.1. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)
MAIN PROGRAMME
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Topic(s)
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Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
ERC-ADG - Advanced Grant
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Call for proposal
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Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) ERC-2019-ADG
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
55122 MAINZ
Germany
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.