Periodic Reporting for period 1 - RESCATA (Species Responses to Climate Change in the Amazon To Andes region)
Reporting period: 2020-10-01 to 2022-09-30
• What are the overall objectives?
Tropical forests face an extinction crisis. Increasing temperatures and drought events jeopardize the survival of thousands of plant species, and the response of tropical forests and their species to climate change is one of the most pressing current questions in Ecology. The Andes and the Amazon are among the most important ecosystems on Earth in terms of carbon storage, biodiversity, and climate regulation. In RESCATA, (Obj.1) the Fellow supported the compilation and standardization via data input into ForestPlots of Andean and Amazonian vegetation monitoring plots; and (Obj.2) performed innovative species-level analysis to identify the drivers behind plant species survival or extinction under climate change conditions in the Amazon-Andes region, and to reveal ongoing and future macroecological changes in these forests.
The Fellow compiled and standardized ~90 Andean forest monitoring plots adding over 180 census, which she uploaded into ForestPlots.net. These plots are now discoverable by any researcher in the world, which exponentially increases the researcher´s chances for collaboration and the inclusion of Andean forests in global synthetic efforts.
Using this new and previously existing data, the Fellow compiled a dataset with over 400 plots across the Andes and the Amazon to examine changes in tree alpha-diversity through time, assessing the influence of climate, environmental, and structural variables. The Fellow and collaborators showed that tree diversity across primary forests in Andean and Amazonian regions has changed directionally in the last decades. The changes suggest an increase of tree diversity in the Northern Andes explained by the process of thermophilization and a decrease in the Eastern regions indicating biotic attrition. Large scale patterns of diversity change across these forests evidence the local impact of global climate change increasing the pressure to support conservation efforts and local ecological research.
Tropical forests face an extinction crisis. Increasing temperatures and drought events jeopardize the survival of thousands of plant species, and the response of tropical forests and their species to climate change is one of the most pressing current questions in Ecology. The Andes and the Amazon are among the most important ecosystems on Earth in terms of carbon storage, biodiversity, and climate regulation. In RESCATA, (Obj.1) the Fellow supported the compilation and standardization via data input into ForestPlots of Andean and Amazonian vegetation monitoring plots; and (Obj.2) performed innovative species-level analysis to identify the drivers behind plant species survival or extinction under climate change conditions in the Amazon-Andes region, and to reveal ongoing and future macroecological changes in these forests.
The Fellow compiled and standardized ~90 Andean forest monitoring plots adding over 180 census, which she uploaded into ForestPlots.net. These plots are now discoverable by any researcher in the world, which exponentially increases the researcher´s chances for collaboration and the inclusion of Andean forests in global synthetic efforts.
Using this new and previously existing data, the Fellow compiled a dataset with over 400 plots across the Andes and the Amazon to examine changes in tree alpha-diversity through time, assessing the influence of climate, environmental, and structural variables. The Fellow and collaborators showed that tree diversity across primary forests in Andean and Amazonian regions has changed directionally in the last decades. The changes suggest an increase of tree diversity in the Northern Andes explained by the process of thermophilization and a decrease in the Eastern regions indicating biotic attrition. Large scale patterns of diversity change across these forests evidence the local impact of global climate change increasing the pressure to support conservation efforts and local ecological research.
WP 1: Data compilation and standardization via data input into ForestPlots
The Fellow carried out multiple virtual meetings with local and international researchers to explain the advantages of adding their data to ForesPlots.net database. She kept in contact with them to ask specific questions during data preparation. She arranged the datasets to the necessary format, found inconsistencies and problematic records, standardize units and formats and plant species names, and carried out multiple quality control procedures to verify the quality of the final dataset that then she uploaded into ForestPlots.net. In total, the Fellow curated and uploadeed ~90 Andean forest plots accounting for over 180 census.
In addition, the Fellow worked with local researchers to: a) establish a new monitoring plot in the wettest point of the Peruvian Andes; this was done in collaboration with local undergraduate students who have collected data for their thesis. And b) establish a large (9ha) plot in one of the most diverse areas of the Amazon to support long-term carbon and diversity monitoring and particularly to be used for ground-truthing in remote sensing research.
WP 2: Drivers of species abundance change across the Andes-Amazon region
The Fellow compiled a data set of 406 forest plots from intact forests across the Amazon and the tropical Andes spanning over 40 years of data. She used this dataset to examine changes in tree alpha-diversity, assessing the influence of climate, environmental, and structural variables. The hypothesis was that species diversity changes vary across regions, with diversity in the Andes and western regions potentially increasing due to thermophilization while declining in the Central-Eastern forests due to biotic attrition. She used regression analyses and multigroup structural equation modelling to explore predictors of richness change across six predefined regions.
The results showed overall stability in species richness but with significant regional variation. Species richness increased in the Northern Andes and Western Amazon, while the Central Andes, Guyana Shield, and Central-Eastern Amazon experienced declines. Warmer, drier, and more seasonal forests showed reduced richness, while forests with greater stem change rates and higher elevations experienced increases. Region-specific drivers, particularly temperature and demographic factors, modulated these trends.
These findings highlight the Northern Andes as a diversity refuge and emphasise the need to preserve tree abundance and landscape integrity to maintain local and regional diversity. Long-term monitoring and detailed botanical identifications are crucial for tracking diversity changes in the face of climate change.
This manuscript involved a collaboration with more than 200 researchers. To engage collaborators on the project, the Fellow shared multiple versions of the manuscript at different stages, organized 2 webinars (one in Spanish and one in English) and had individual meetings to engage directly with her collaborators. This work is presented in a manuscript which is currently in the second round of reviews at Nature Ecology and Evolution. The Fellow presented this manuscript at the British Ecological Society 2024 annual meeting.
The Fellow carried out multiple virtual meetings with local and international researchers to explain the advantages of adding their data to ForesPlots.net database. She kept in contact with them to ask specific questions during data preparation. She arranged the datasets to the necessary format, found inconsistencies and problematic records, standardize units and formats and plant species names, and carried out multiple quality control procedures to verify the quality of the final dataset that then she uploaded into ForestPlots.net. In total, the Fellow curated and uploadeed ~90 Andean forest plots accounting for over 180 census.
In addition, the Fellow worked with local researchers to: a) establish a new monitoring plot in the wettest point of the Peruvian Andes; this was done in collaboration with local undergraduate students who have collected data for their thesis. And b) establish a large (9ha) plot in one of the most diverse areas of the Amazon to support long-term carbon and diversity monitoring and particularly to be used for ground-truthing in remote sensing research.
WP 2: Drivers of species abundance change across the Andes-Amazon region
The Fellow compiled a data set of 406 forest plots from intact forests across the Amazon and the tropical Andes spanning over 40 years of data. She used this dataset to examine changes in tree alpha-diversity, assessing the influence of climate, environmental, and structural variables. The hypothesis was that species diversity changes vary across regions, with diversity in the Andes and western regions potentially increasing due to thermophilization while declining in the Central-Eastern forests due to biotic attrition. She used regression analyses and multigroup structural equation modelling to explore predictors of richness change across six predefined regions.
The results showed overall stability in species richness but with significant regional variation. Species richness increased in the Northern Andes and Western Amazon, while the Central Andes, Guyana Shield, and Central-Eastern Amazon experienced declines. Warmer, drier, and more seasonal forests showed reduced richness, while forests with greater stem change rates and higher elevations experienced increases. Region-specific drivers, particularly temperature and demographic factors, modulated these trends.
These findings highlight the Northern Andes as a diversity refuge and emphasise the need to preserve tree abundance and landscape integrity to maintain local and regional diversity. Long-term monitoring and detailed botanical identifications are crucial for tracking diversity changes in the face of climate change.
This manuscript involved a collaboration with more than 200 researchers. To engage collaborators on the project, the Fellow shared multiple versions of the manuscript at different stages, organized 2 webinars (one in Spanish and one in English) and had individual meetings to engage directly with her collaborators. This work is presented in a manuscript which is currently in the second round of reviews at Nature Ecology and Evolution. The Fellow presented this manuscript at the British Ecological Society 2024 annual meeting.
This MSCA has pushed the frontiers of tropical forest ecology by in numerous ways and its impact has reached the specialized scientific community and the general audience. For instance, an unexpected outcome has been the collaboration between the Fellow and the experimental art collective Marshmallow Laser Feast to provide scientific input for a tree migration exhibition.
The standardization of Andean and Amazonian data achieved during this project will trigger collaboration and promote further research into a variety of topics such as tropical forests macroecology and species conservation. The establishment of new monitoring plots in the Andes and Amazon will support new local projects and further research investment in these areas. The Fellow compiled the most complete dataset to date with the potential to address long-term compositional changes in Andean and Amazonian forests. In this project the Fellow explored the changes in alpha diversity which is only one piece of the story of the long-term compositional change. There are multiple additional and follow-up questions that could be addressed with this invaluable dataset. The Fellow expects to engage with PhD students to continue this work in collaboration with the current collaboration network.
This MSCA allowed the Fellow to develop great collaboration and management skills. It also enhanced the Fellow’s ability to work with large vegetation and climatic databases. The results of the project prompted the development of a new project for which the Fellow was awarded a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship and a University of Liverpool Fellowship. Thus, the impact of the MSCA will carry over the next years via the new project.
Due to COVID and maternity leaves, the project accumulated considerable delay and some of the expected dissemination actions and impacts will come to fruition after the project has finished. For example, the results of the project have been presented at BES 2024 annual meeting but they will be presented in future conferences (ATBC, AEET). There will also be a press-release and subsequent engagement with news outlets and a publication directed at non-scientific audiences.
The standardization of Andean and Amazonian data achieved during this project will trigger collaboration and promote further research into a variety of topics such as tropical forests macroecology and species conservation. The establishment of new monitoring plots in the Andes and Amazon will support new local projects and further research investment in these areas. The Fellow compiled the most complete dataset to date with the potential to address long-term compositional changes in Andean and Amazonian forests. In this project the Fellow explored the changes in alpha diversity which is only one piece of the story of the long-term compositional change. There are multiple additional and follow-up questions that could be addressed with this invaluable dataset. The Fellow expects to engage with PhD students to continue this work in collaboration with the current collaboration network.
This MSCA allowed the Fellow to develop great collaboration and management skills. It also enhanced the Fellow’s ability to work with large vegetation and climatic databases. The results of the project prompted the development of a new project for which the Fellow was awarded a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship and a University of Liverpool Fellowship. Thus, the impact of the MSCA will carry over the next years via the new project.
Due to COVID and maternity leaves, the project accumulated considerable delay and some of the expected dissemination actions and impacts will come to fruition after the project has finished. For example, the results of the project have been presented at BES 2024 annual meeting but they will be presented in future conferences (ATBC, AEET). There will also be a press-release and subsequent engagement with news outlets and a publication directed at non-scientific audiences.