EIDOS of a city: simulating the collapse and resilience of ancient Eastern Mediterranean urban environments via agent-based modelling

Project Information

EIDOS-IF-2019

Grant agreement ID: 893249

DOI

10.3030/893249

Project closed

EC signature date 28 April 2020

Start date 2 August 2021

End date 1 August 2023

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Total cost

€ 145 941,12

EU contribution

€ 145 941,12

Coordinated by

THE CYPRUS INSTITUTE
Cyprus

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - EIDOS-IF-2019 (EIDOS of a city: simulating the collapse and resilience of ancient Eastern Mediterranean urban environments via agent-based modelling)

Reporting period: 2021-08-02 to 2023-08-01

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

The project "EIDOS of a city: simulating the collapse and resilience of ancient Eastern Mediterranean urban environments via agent-based modeling" delves into the enduring question of what factors allowed some cities to thrive for millennia while others collapsed after mere centuries. The Eastern Mediterranean, home to some of the world's oldest civilizations and a rich history of urban development, has consistently intrigued scholars. Yet, our understanding of the multifaceted factors influencing urban decline, socio-economic collapse, and urban resilience in this region remains incomplete. This project stemmed from the pressing need to address these knowledge gaps, particularly the mystery surrounding the divergent fates of ancient cities in the Eastern Mediterranean.

In the initial phase, we embarked on an extensive endeavor to collect and analyze copious datasets. The primary aim of EIDOS was to unravel the broader patterns of settlement persistence across the Eastern Mediterranean, with a specific focus on Cyprus and the northern/southern Levant regions. Collaboration with international projects in Europe and North America enabled us to compile a comprehensive dataset encompassing 30,000 sites in the northern/southern Levant. Notably, due to the absence of an equivalent dataset for Cyprus, the project's inaugural six months were dedicated to painstakingly creating a Cypriot dataset. This meticulous effort resulted in the digitization of 1,600 sites spanning from the Neolithic to the Ottoman period, culminating in the establishment of the first fully accessible geo-database of Cypriot settlements.

The second phase of EIDOS was dedicated to harnessing the power of Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) to dissect and evaluate the variables contributing specifically to shifts in settlement patterns. ABM, a versatile simulation technique, empowers researchers to construct models from the ground up, facilitating the exploration of diverse theories and hypotheses. Through the manipulation of model parameters, such as annual rainfall and crop yields, we systematically identified the most influential variables. This iterative process culminated in the identification of potential mechanisms influencing urban decline or resilience.

Using the Late Bronze Age in Cyprus as a focal point, we developed an agent-based model to scrutinize the extent to which copper production and export influenced the transformation of settlement patterns during this era. The simulation outcomes underwent rigorous testing and validation against the archaeological record, enabling us to pinpoint the factors with the greatest impact on the model. These findings, aligned with known settlement distribution patterns, have significantly advanced our understanding of the intricate dynamics at play within Eastern Mediterranean urban systems. Importantly, this research has unveiled mechanisms beyond environmental factors that contributed to historical urban transformations within the region.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

2022 Crawford, K.A. and Vella, M.-A. Cyprus Dataset: Settlements from 11000 BCE to 1878 CE. Journal of Open Archaeology Data, 10, p.7. DOI: http://doi.org/10.5334/joad.96
It includes an open-access dataset in Zenodo. Crawford, K.A. and Vella, M-A. 2022. Cyprus Settlement Database, version 1.0 (1 November 2022): https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7271681

In-progress: Crawford, K.A. Barnes, C., and Tzima, M. Cypriot Settlement Transformation Patterns Using Legacy Survey Data. Journal of Mediterranean Archaeology

In-progress: Simulating the Role of Copper Production in Late Bronze Age Settlement Patterns. Journal of Archaeological Science

In-progress: Modelling Settlement Persistence in the Eastern Mediterranean. XXXX

Organisation of conference sessions:
04/2023 Modelling Ancient Cities: methods, theories, and tools, Computer Applications & Quantitative Methods in Archaeology (Amsterdam, Netherlands). Co-organized with Iza Romanowska and Dries Daems.
03/2022 Modelling Settlement Transformations in the EMME Region, ICAS-EMME 3 (Nicosia, Cyprus). Co-organized with Iza Romanowska and Georgios Artopolous.
Invited Conference Papers:
06/2022 Simulating the link between riverscapes, sanctuaries, and settlement change in Late Bronze Age Cyprus. Riverscapes and Religious Conduct in Ancient Greece (Münster, Germany)
09/2022 Modelling the Correlation between Rivers and Settlement Persistence on Cyprus. Living Streams - New Perspectives on Ancient Rivers (Athens, Greece).
08/2022 Simulating the Growth and Decline of a Network of Cities in the Eastern Mediterranean. 2022 Computer Applications & Quantitative Methods in Archaeology (Oxford/On-line)
04/2022 Using Big Data to Study Urban Resilience within the Eastern Mediterranean. Theoretical Roman Archaeology Conference (Split, Croatia).
Conference Papers:
04/2023 Does economic exchange drive settlement persistence patterns? 2023 Computer Applications & Quantitative Methods in Archaeology (Amsterdam, Netherlands)
11/2022 Simulating Settlement Persistence within the Ancient Near East. American Society of Overseas Research (ASOR) (Boston, USA).
03/2022 Modelling Settlement Transformations in the EMME Region. ICAS-EMME 3 (Nicosia, Cyprus).
Dissemination to the general public and students:
04/2023 Introduction to Python. Month-long instructional skills course teaching python and the basics of data analysis to students at The Cyprus Institute. Co-developed and taught with Marco Miani.
04–05/2023 Agent-Based Modelling. Master course: Community Engagement & Heritage Education in a Digital World. Taught 8 weeks of agent-based modeling. The Cyprus Institute, STARC.
09/2022 How Long Will My City Last. European Researcher’s Night (Nicosia, Cyprus).
04–05/2022 Agent-Based Modelling. Master course: Community Engagement & Heritage Education in a Digital World. Taught 3 weeks of agent-based modeling. The Cyprus Institute, STARC.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

Through meticulous analysis of settlement datasets encompassing Cyprus, the northern and southern Levant, and the development of a dedicated agent-based model tailored to the specific context of Cyprus, EIDOS successfully achieved its objectives, embarking on the path of unraveling the factors that underpin a settlement's ability to endure over time. The extensive examination of big data has yielded compelling evidence of a connection between regional spatial positioning, network interactions, and the temporal interplay of socio-environmental factors, collectively influencing a settlement's likelihood of long-term survival.

The creation of an agent-based model designed to investigate the impact of copper production and export on the distribution of settlements during the Late Bronze Age in Cyprus has unveiled significant insights. This model elucidates the pivotal role played by mining operations in shaping intra-settlement dynamics and fostering local economic exchange practices. These dynamics, in turn, contributed to the spatial distribution of settlements across the Cypriot landscape.

In summation, EIDOS has admirably fulfilled its objective by identifying key determinants contributing to urban persistence, marking a significant step forward in our understanding of the intricate factors influencing the longevity of ancient settlements.

EIDOS logo

Map of Cyprus Settlements