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Developing and testing spatial indicators of ecosystem stability for subtidal seascapes

Project description

Developing novel indicators of durable shifts in sub-tidal systems

Predicting upcoming changes in ecosystems is particularly important where big, lasting shifts – regime shifts – might occur. To investigate what these shifts are based on and predict their occurrence in ecosystems, scientists have used mathematical models and developed indicators based on an ecosystem’s observed spatial structure. However, they have only used this approach for terrestrial ecosystems. The EU-funded INDECOSTAB project aims to extend this approach to the marine environment and develop novel indicators of upcoming regime shifts for sub-tidal systems. It will therefore create a realistic, spatially-explicit model of ecological dynamics, derive indicators of upcoming shifts in coral reefs and algal beds and apply the results in widely available software. The project will advance scientists’ ability to predict regime shifts.

Objective

Predicting upcoming changes in ecosystems has become one of the priorities of current ecological research and conservation. This is especially crucial for ecosystems where large, durable ecological shifts – hereafter regime shifts – may occur following an increase in stressors (e.g. ocean temperature) or after perturbation events (e.g. hurricanes, fisheries). Because experimentally investigating regime shifts in ecosystems often requires large, impractical disturbance experiments, mathematical models have been used to investigate the factors underpinning such shifts, and predict where and when they might occur in a given ecosystem. This research effort has led to the development of indicators (metrics) based on the observed spatial structure of an ecosystem, which can inform on the proximity of a regime shift. While this approach has been explored for terrestrial ecosystems, virtually no work has been done to apply it to marine ecosystems, and in particular sub-tidal systems (e.g. coral reefs, algal beds). Yet, at least 500 million people depend on these ecosystems at global scale, and their potential for regime shifts in the current context of global changes has been extensively reported by the scientific and global policy literature. This project aims at opening a new research avenue by extending the previous approaches designed for terrestrial ecosystems to develop novel indicators of upcoming regime shifts for sub-tidal systems. We will do so by successively (1) develop a realistic, spatially-explicit model of ecological dynamics, using the coastal ecosystems of Easter Island as model systems; (2) derive indicators of upcoming shifts in coral reefs and algal beds and validate them on empirical data, and; (3) implement our results in widely-available software. Achieving these goals will advance our ability to predict regime shifts and ultimately provide globally-applicable indicators of ecosystem fragility for sub-tidal systems.

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Programme(s)

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Topic(s)

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Funding Scheme

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MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)

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Call for proposal

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(opens in new window) H2020-MSCA-IF-2019

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Coordinator

UNIVERSITEIT UTRECHT
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 205 969,92
Address
HEIDELBERGLAAN 8
3584 CS Utrecht
Netherlands

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Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Links
Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

€ 205 969,92

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