Following the Kyoto protocol, the EU (15 members) must cut GHG by 8% by the year 2008-2012 and the region is responsible for 24% of industrialised countries' GHG. The largest sources of GHG emissions are the production of power, heat and transportation. Energy forecasting models do not accurately account for the role of fuel cells. Further research is required to improve the accuracy of predicting the shape of future of fuel cell based energy systems. The author undertakes a study on the market and technological adoption of fuel cell technology within the manufacturing, power generation and transportation sectors.
There are two reasons that justify further research:
1) the need to improve energy system wide conversion efficiency and industrial energy efficiency;
2) need to achieve the Kyoto protocol agreed GHG emission targets and
3) the need to reduce fossil fuel dependency.
We aim to answer whether:
1) fuel cells will be adopted;
2) if adopted how much will they reduce GHG emissions.
3) The role of techno logical spillover from one sector to another will be significant.
The project proposed involves the design of a model to forecast pollution intensities, energy, heat and power demands of the manufacturing sector as well as of other sectors within the next 10 50 years. The model shall predict how fuel cells mitigate GHG into the future and its market impediments. The project shall provide guidance on how to achieve a low cost GHG policy. Fuel cells have the potential to provide twice the energy conversion efficiency of conventional combustion engines. Potential markets include the manufacturing industry (fuel cell CHP), buildings and transportation (hybrid car). Fuel cell-CHP is a promising option for GHG mitigation, with wide job creating effects and positi ve environmental outcomes. The objective of the project is closely related to the European Union's policy on sustainable energy systems and to its commitment to carbon emissions reduction policy.
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