Periodic Reporting for period 1 - GAM-2020-TE2 (TA “Technology Evaluator” (GAM-2020-TE2))
Reporting period: 2020-01-01 to 2020-12-31
Cross-positioned within the Clean Sky 2 Programme, the Technology Evaluator (TE) is a dedicated evaluation platform. It has the key role of assessing the environmental impact of the technologies developed in Clean Sky 2 and their level of success towards well-defined environmental (noise, CO2, NOx) and societal benefits and targets. These technologies are developed by the IADPs (Innovative Aircraft Demonstrator Platforms) and ITDs (Integrated Technology Demonstrator projects) and clustered in coherent and mutually compatible solution sets, defining concept aircrafts.
A Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft and its reference technology aircraft is compared along the same trajectory in order to determine the environmental benefit of the Clean Sky 2 technologies, namely noise on ground and emissions (CO2 and NOX).
In the 1st TE assessment the mission level assessment is based on detailed descriptions of each of the concepts and their technology insertions stemming from the work under the various ITD/IADP research streams. The technology selection and integration choice were performed as early as 2018 by each platform owner (for each vehicle model) before running the complete performance simulation. The definition of each aircraft concept was based on the available technologies with sufficient maturity level in 2018 and the integration at overall aircraft level was performed accordingly, considering mainly weight and volume impact of components and systems, efficiency and weight of the propulsion system and aerodynamic performance of the aircraft (at low speed and high speed). Each SPD has used their own in-house tools, which are proprietary performance simulation tools.
Three vehicle concepts have a target entry-into-service (EIS) date as early as 2025, and all of them achieve or exceed their environmental performance objectives, sometimes with well over -30% CO2 emissions reduction (e.g. the advanced Regional 90 pax TurboProp with -34% CO2 and -67% NOx reduction).
For the next EIS target date (2030), the Short-Medium Range concept (SMR+) will achieve a significant improvement of -17% CO2. The moderate improvement for the LR+ concept (-13% CO2) results from the comparison with the A350-900 as a reference, a very recent and already very highly optimised platform, while a substantial reduction in NOx emissions has been obtained (-38%) thanks to the Ultrafan® lean burn technology.
Finally, for the Ultra-Advanced concepts with EIS 2035 and beyond, even more substantial gains can be expected, with -26% for the SMR++ concept (thanks to the Open Rotor architecture) and -26% for the Innovative Regional TP 130 pax compared to a Regional Jet. The low NOx reduction for the SMR++ (-8%) may be disregarded as it results from the core engine model of the Open Rotor not yet including low NOx combustor technology (currently being updated). NOx reduction values close to -40% are expected as confirmed by the low NOx combustion technology of the SMR+ core engine model. The LR++ (Ultra-Advanced LR concept) has not been modelled as a full aircraft concept but an engineering approach with an additional -7% to -8% improvement versus the LR+ concept has been assumed (-21% CO2 reduction and -45% NOx).
A Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft replaces its reference technology counterpart at different time scales up to 2050 for selected airport traffic scenarios. The purpose of this replacement approach is to evaluate the full potential of environmental benefits of Clean Sky 2 technologies to an airport area, namely noise on the ground and population impacted by certain noise levels and emissions (CO2 and NOx).
In the 1st TE assessment noise impacts were estimated by comparing the noise performance of future airport traffic scenarios with and without CS2 technologies in the year 2050 for a set of representative airports (Amsterdam Schiphol, Rome Fiumicino, Stockholm Arlanda, Hamburg, and Toulouse Blagnac). The reductions for 2050 in surface area of Lden contours for relevant noise levels (60-65 dB(A)) are about 10-15% and point out significant reductions of 10-25% in population exposed and population highly annoyed. In 2050, reductions of CO2 emissions will amount to about 8-13.5% for the European airports considered, while the associated NOx reductions are in the range 6.5-10.5%.
Air transport system (ATS) level:
Similarly, to airport level, a Clean Sky 2 concept aircraft replaces its reference technology counterpart at different time scales up to 2050 for global fleet traffic scenarios to assess the Clean Sky 2 benefits for emissions (CO2 and NOx).
The main results of the 1st TE assessment showed that at fleet level (Air Traffic System), according to the present forecast (high scenario), approximately 75% of global available seat kilometres (ASK) will be operated with aircraft expected to carry Clean Sky 2 technologies in 2050, while 25% of global ASKs will still be operated by aircraft with 2014 reference technologies, not yet retired.
By applying the performance improvements obtained for each concept aircraft, and by completing the fleet with virtual aircraft based on appropriate technology diffusion models to neighbouring seat classes, an overall reduction of CO2 and NOx emissions of about 15% and 31% per seat kilometre can be expected for the year 2050 high fleet scenario as compared to a 2050 global traffic scenario incorporating only 2014 reference technology.
In 2050, 55%of CO2 emissions will come from medium and large aircraft on short-medium haul flights (<4000km). These two aircraft categories will account for about 55% of flights, compared to 15% in 2020.
In the EU-28 at macro-economic level, aviation is responsible for an above-average share of total Gross Value Added (GVA) and total employment compared to the rest of the world.
The projection indicates strong positive growth in aviation-related employment in Europe and in the world as well as a significant increase in gross value added created by aviation.
Based on the movements forecast and an economic input-output model using data from the World Input-Output Database , the economic effects of civil aviation, which are supported by CS2, have been estimated in terms of GVA and employment growth. Although a significant driver is the strong air traffic growth in emerging economies such as China, India, and Indonesia, the EU28 (and the US) will see both their employment and GVA from aviation roughly double by 2050 versus 2014, maintaining a significant share of the world’s global aviation-related employment and GVA.
Outlook towards final TE assessment:
The second (and final) TE assessment will be done by 2024. Work has already started with a new iteration of technology mapping to include additional technology bricks into the existing concept models and update them.
New or updated reference vehicles will be defined to improve performance comparison.