Periodic Reporting for period 1 - CoCO2 (Prototype system for a Copernicus CO2 service)
Reporting period: 2021-01-01 to 2021-12-31
To support EU countries in assessing their progress for reaching their targets agreed in the Paris Agreement, the European Commission has clearly stated that a way to monitor anthropogenic CO2 emissions is needed. Such a capacity would deliver consistent and reliable information to support policy- and decision-making processes. To maintain Europe’s independence in this domain, it is imperative that the EU establishes an observation-based operational anthropogenic CO2 emissions Monitoring and Verification Support (CO2MVS) capacity as part of its Copernicus programme. The CoCO2 Coordination and Support Action is intended as a continuation of the CO2 Human Emissions (CHE) project, led by ECMWF. The main objective of CoCO2 is to perform R&D activities identified as a need in the CHE project and strongly recommended by the European Commission's CO2 monitoring Task Force. The activities shall sustain the development of a European capacity for monitoring anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The activities will address all components of the system, such as atmospheric transport models, re-analysis, data assimilation techniques, bottom-up estimation, in-situ networks and ancillary measurements needed to address the attribution of CO2 emissions. The aim is to have prototype systems at the required spatial scales ready by the end of the project as input for the foreseen Copernicus CO2 service element.
CoCO2 made significant progress during its first year in all areas of the future Copernicus CO2MVS (see also Figure 1). In WP2, global and regional high-resolution bottom-up anthropogenic fossil fuel emission estimates of CO2 and co-emitted species per sector for the first target year 2018 were delivered as well as biogenic fluxes for land and ocean. In addition, improved temporal and vertical profiles have been developed and novel estimates of the important lateral fluxes were provided. Another novel activity is the development of a global mosaic that integrates regional emission datasets in a global inventory making optimal use of the increased resolution and accuracy for certain regions around the world. In WP3, an inversion capability has been implemented and tested in the short 4D-Var data assimilation system of ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), which forms the basis of the global prototype system of the CO2MVS. A demonstration of the emission estimation in the IFS has been performed for CH4 and continuous development and testing of the various inputs to and components of the IFS is on-going. While the focus is on improvement of the IFS, many partners contribute to these developments with their expertise and existing (inverse) modelling infrastructure. A major part of the activities during the first year in WP4 has been dedicated to laying a firm basis in the different tasks to ensure that forthcoming experiments and analyses fulfil the objectives of the work package. Detailed protocols have been set-up for the tasks where inter-comparisons of simulations or inversions are conducted. Much effort has also been dedicated to the preparation of the model and inversion systems at the local and regional scales. WP5 included several activities that are focused on better estimating the uncertainties in the CO2MVS capacity. Within the IFS, the existing Ensemble of Data Assimilation (EDA) configuration was extended to include atmospheric composition, specifically CO2, CH4, CO and NO2. The posterior distribution of global CO2 concentrations obtained from the EDA minimisations can be used to sample boundary conditions for smaller scale inversion systems and quantify part of the uncertainty associated with the transfer of information from global to local scales. This work package also organised workshops (together with WP3) on model evaluation and benchmarking for biospheric fluxes, making use of existing frameworks as much as possible. In addition, the VERIFY Community Inversion Framework (CIF) was extended to include more (inverse) models. In WP6, the objective to provide appropriate CO2 anthropogenic emission products for the 1st Global Stocktake (GST) was addressed in year 1 through the development of demonstration systems both for the “fast carbon cycle”, and from the “slow carbon cycle”. The uptake of WP2 - WP5 activities to build a comprehensive global multi-scale integrated prototype that will serve as the basis for the pre-operational CO2MVS was addressed in year 1 through the development of the first IFS global emission inversion prototype that was tested and evaluated in the context of CH4 flux. WP 7 focused on the in-situ observation and ancillary data requirements of the CO2MVS, taking into account the required precision, uncertainty, and timeliness of the data. These requirements have been mapped with a survey and are reported in deliverable D7.1. WP8 initiated the work on producing the first synthesis report of consistent estimates of emissions of CO2 and CH4, building on the previous VERIFY work, but focusing on global scale and top 10 emitters, which covers many countries outside of the EU. Also, in October 2021, the first User Consultation Workshop took place. The workshop aimed to identify gaps in existing reporting that are amenable to improvement through the Copernicus CO2MVS capacity. A second workshop later in the CoCO2 project will aim at a wider audience and better definition of products. Finally, WP9 was responsible for setting up efficient management structures and communication channels to enable the scientific-technical work packages to interact with each other. A first Mid-Term Dissemination and Exploitation Report, as well as the project’s website and Twitter account were all delivered on time. Also, as part of this work package, various interactions with the CO2 Task Force and the CO2M MAG took place throughout the year. CoCO2 staff was involved in WMO/IG3IS Steering Committee and CEOS Task Force meetings and the project results have been shown at many conferences, workshops, and other meetings, including COP26.
The main impact of CoCO2 will come though the delivery of the prototype systems that can be implemented as a Copernicus pre-operational service element at the end of the project (2023). By 2026, this observation-based Copernicus Monitoring and Verification Support capacity is expected to operationally deliver consistent and reliable information to support policy- and decision-making processes as part of Europe's commitment to the Paris Agreement. Being the first to provide this kind of comprehensive and operational service will allow Europe to support developments of similar nature within intergovernmental frameworks, such as UNFCCC or WMO. CoCO2 will bring innovation by developing and connecting the various building blocks (observations, emission inventories, modelling and inversion systems) that will form the future monitoring system and exploit synergies and strengths of the various (inverse) modelling methodologies that are already available. However, CoCO2 is not starting from scratch. The project is designed to combine and further develop existing capabilities. It will extend the service framework of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, benefit from and link with relevant elements from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, Copernicus Marine Environment Service, Copernicus Land Monitoring Service, and use the developments from existing H2020 projects.