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Understanding and Strengthening EU Foreign and Security Policy in a Complex and Contested World

Deliverables

Comparative paper on how to reduce impact of regional fragmentation on EUFSP

Taking the EUGS into account, the paper will propose recommendations on how EU member states could act to reduce regional fragmentation at different levels, including economic, security and defence policies. Challenges such as energy security, migration, climate change will be taken into consideration since addressing them should be an integral part of any effort aimed at achieving stabilisation of the three areas.

Report on the South China Sea: EU and member states' policies & regional/global perspectives

Drawing from WP3’s work, WP6 will examine how the EU and member states frame their interest in the South China Sea and develop the corresponding goals, and evaluate their strategies to make such goals compatible with one another; consider instruments from different policy areas, spanning diplomacy, CSDP missions, development, economic incentives and restrictive measures, as well as the external aspects of internal policies and “peripheral” or “sectorial” policies such as connectivity, energy, climate, gender, migration management, science, culture, as well as relevant regulatory measures; analyse EU and member states’ interactions with regional and global powers and multilateral organisations, in both formal and informal frameworks. Co-lead CEPS & CSIS

Conceptual framework on the context of EUFSP

Conceptual framework on how the rapidly changing and contested domestic and international environment sets the conditions for the EU and its member states to address crises and conflicts. The conceptual framework will build on the literature reviews on internal EU contestation, regional fragmentation and multipolar competition, but will focus particularly on the interaction between the three factors as a constraining dynamic preventing the EU and its member states to generate consensus on objectives and instruments and coordinate their engagements with external players.

Inventory of EUFSP-related public and elite opinion surveys

A research design that accounts for the challenges to exploring perceptions and political acceptability of an enhanced EU foreign, security and defence policy. There are two main orders of challenges. One concerns low salience and often technical nature of the content. The other challenge is politicisation: any analysis of political acceptability should address the possibility that common security becomes a contentious issue in national political arenas.

Report on Ukraine: EU and member states' policies & regional/global perspectives

Drawing from WP3’s work, WP6 will examine how the EU and member states frame their interest in Ukraine and develop the corresponding goals, and evaluate their strategies to make such goals compatible with one another; consider instruments from different policy areas, spanning diplomacy, CSDP missions, development, economic incentives and restrictive measures, as well as the external aspects of internal policies and “peripheral” or “sectorial” policies such as connectivity, energy, climate, gender, migration management, science, culture, as well as relevant regulatory measures; analyse EU and member states’ interactions with regional and global powers and multilateral organisations, in both formal and informal frameworks. Co-lead ICDS & NaUKMA

Literature review of implications of regional fragmentation for crises and conflict

The literature review on regional fragmentation will be conducted with a view to investigating the political social economic ethnic religious and ideological cleavages along which regions fragment the extent to which fragmentation fuels or is fuelled by interstate competition and consequently the reasons explaining the absence or failure of formal and informal governance structures It will devote special attention to studies highlighting the connection between the fragmentation of regions and theinability of the EU and its member states to formulate and implement common or at least coordinated action on crises and conflicts The review will concentrate mostly on processes of fragmentation in those areas that mostly affect the strategic and security interests of the EU and member states However it will also account for regional specificity such as the varying degrees of regional fragmentation across different parts of the world

Literature review of implications of multipolar competition for crises and conflict

The literature review on multipolar competition will be conducted with a view to investigating the academic interpretations of the reasons underlying the increasingly powerbased approach followed by global and regional actors Attention will be paid to studies emphasising domestic factors political parties or regimes construing national security interests as opposed to those of other countries as well as systemic factors like variations in economic military and technological resources The review will look into both global multipolar competition with a focus on the US China and Russia and regional multipolar competition in Eastern Europe the Middle East across North and subSaharan Africa Southeast Asia and Latin America It will consider the impact ofcompetition on multilateralism the international partners of the EU as well as the evolution of the EUs understanding of its own role as an international actor Special attention will be devoted to studies highlighting the connection between multipolar competition and the inability of the EU and its member states to formulate and implement common action on crises and conflicts

Guidelines for WP4 case study research

The guidelines will specify the exact research questions and methods of the case study research within WP4 and deliver a higher quality research

Report on Israel-Palestine: EU and member states' policies & local/regional perspective

Report aims to show how internal contestation constrains a more joined-up and sustainable EU Foreign and Security policy (EUFSP) towards Israel-Palestine. Co-lead TF & EDAM

Report on EU approach to crises and conflict

Reports task is to trace and assess the evolution of the EUs approach to crises and conflict and thus flesh out JOINTs conceptualisation of EUFSP as multilayer It will review the main concepts that have driven EU efforts to make its action on the ground more effective ranging from the comprehensive approach of the early 2000s to the integrated approach introduced by the EUGS The report will uncover the underlying reasoning behind these conceptual changes and assess the extent to which such concepts have been operationalised The report will consider how EU policymakers have factored inrelations with external players when devising EU approaches to crises and conflicts

Report on Iran: EU and member states' policies & regional/global perspectives

Drawing from WP3’s work, WP6 will examine how the EU and member states frame their interest in Iran and develop the corresponding goals, and evaluate their strategies to make such goals compatible with one another; consider instruments from different policy areas, spanning diplomacy, CSDP missions, development, economic incentives and restrictive measures, as well as the external aspects of internal policies and “peripheral” or “sectorial” policies such as connectivity, energy, climate, gender, migration management, science, culture, as well as relevant regulatory measures; analyse EU and member states’ interactions with regional and global powers and multilateral organisations, in both formal and informal frameworks. Co-lead IAI & EDAM

Report on Venezuela: EU and member states' policies and local & regional perspective

Report aims to show how internal contestation constrains a more joined-up and sustainable EU Foreign and Security policy (EUFSP) towards Venezuela. Co-lead CIDOB & NUPI

Guidelines for WP5 case study research

The guidelines will specify the exact research questions and methods of the case study research within WP5 and deliver a higher quality research

Guidelines for WP6 case study research

The guidelines will specify the exact research questions and methods of the case study research within WP6 and deliver a higher quality research

Report on the Horn of Africa: EU and member states' policies & local and regional perspective

Report aims to analyse how regional fragmentation constitutes a major constraining factor to EU's initiatives to support stabilisation in the Horn of Africa. In so doing, WP5 will draw from WP2’s conceptualisation of regional fragmentation. The situation in the Horn is complex, with functioning states like Ethiopia co-existing with failed states like Somalia and presents multiple and complex challenges, such as piracy in the waters off the Horn.Co-lead IAI & IPSS

Comparative paper on how to reduce impact of multipolar competition on EUFSP

The paper will identify the unexploited potential for an enhanced and more sustainable performance of the EU in external crisis management and conflict resolution. It sets the task of formulating actionable policy recommendations geared towards reconciling within a single discursive framework the two prevailing motives in this debate – the EU as a pillar of the multilateral order and the EU as a global ‘pole’, in that it connects the need for stronger security, defence and crisis management assets to the EU’s core interests in cooperative regional orders and a rules-based international system. The paper will identify the possible arrangements – at the level of coordinating objectives, integrating instruments, and making external engagements more complementary – that EU institutions and member states could agree on to reduce the impact of multipolar competition on the effectiveness of EU foreign, security and defence policy and enhance its strategic autonomy.

Report on EU internal policy capabilities with external dimension

The report will review how internal policies energy monetary gender science culture climate as well as financial banking and internal market regulations have been deployed as assets in support of EU foreign policy objectives

Summary of party positions on EU foreign, security and defence policy

A thorough inventory of the existing data on public and elite opinion on issues related to EU foreign, security and defence policies, thereby getting a better understanding of whether political elites (parties) could act to make EUFSP issues contentious among citizens (i.e. a politicised issue). This task breaks down into a review of existing mass and elite survey data on attitudes towards a common security and defence policy and of existing party manifestos and expert surveys data on party positions towards a common security and defence policy based on the Party Manifesto Project and the CHES Expertsurvey.

Focus groups data analysis

Six focus groups to be conducted in France, Greece, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain in order to explore and interpret what people have in mind when they think of a common foreign, security and defence policy. WP7 will design the focus groups with two goals in mind: an explorative one, whereby it will get knowledge of the general public’s cognitive map in regard to a low salience topic; and an interpretive one, whereby it will inductively explore the ideas and feelings people have of problems in these policy sectors to identify considerations behind their opinions and policy preferences.

Report on EU security, defence, intelligence and cyber instruments

The report will delve deep into the many instruments of foreign and security policy that the EU has developed over time and thus flesh out JOINTs conceptualisation of EUFSP as multisector The research will consider traditional foreign policy assets such as diplomacy defence development humanitarian aid as well as economic incentives assistance trade deals and restrictive measures sanctions Special attention will be given to military intelligence and cybersecurity assets as well as civilian capabilities of critical importance for sustaining EU crisisconflict management efforts

Comparative paper on how to reduce impact of internal contestation on EUFSP

By comparing the three cases (Kosovo-Serbia, Isreal-Palestine, Venezuela), the paper will produce recommendations on how the EU and member states can reduce the impact ofinternal contestation on the effectiveness of EU foreign, security and defence policy.

Report on Libya: EU and member states' policies & local/regional perspective

Report aims to analyse how regional fragmentation constitutes a major constraining factor to EU mediation efforts in Libya. In so doing, WP5 will draw from WP2’s conceptualisation of regional fragmentation. Libya features situations in which state authority has collapsed and presents multiple and complex challenges, such as illicit trafficking of humans, drugs and arms.Co-lead FRS, IAI & IPSS

Set of criteria for assessing effectiveness of EU foreign, security and defence policy

WP8’s first task is to devise criteria for realistically assessing effectiveness of cooperation in EU foreign, security and defence policy. WP8 will provide WPs4-6 with an analytical grid for assessing a) the impact of internal contestation, regional fragmentation and multipolar competition on a range from 1 to 10; b) the performance of EUFSP, again on a scale from 1 to 10 (WP8 will provide WPs 4-6 with specific guidelines on how to give a numerical value to their qualitative analyses). WP8 will work with a definition of ‘effectiveness’ as the maximum impact in line with EUFSP objectives by means of the maximum degree ofcooperation achievable within the existing governance structures in the context characterised by the three constraining factors.

Report on Syria: EU and member states' policies & local/regional perspective

Report aims to analyse how regional fragmentation constitutes a major constraining factor to EU mediation efforts in Syria. In so doing, WP5 will draw from WP2’s conceptualisation of regional fragmentation. Syria features situations in which state authority is contested and presents multiple and complex challenges, such as the proliferation of violent extremist and terrorist groups.Co-lead FRS & EDAM

Report on Kosovo-Serbia: EU and member states' policies & local/regional perspective

Report aims to show how internal contestation is a major factor hampering EU efforts at brokering permanent peace between Kosovo and Serbia

Conceptual paper on the governance of EUFSP

Conceptual framework connecting the multi-actor/sector/layer conceptualisation of EUFSP to the EU’s approach to crises and conflict. The conceptual framework will spellout clearly the conditions that would make the EU’s involvement in crisis and conflict management more joined-up and sustainable by tracing challenges and unexploited potential for greater cooperation back to the EUFSP dimensions of governance: actors, sectors and modes of external engagement. The conceptual framework will thus operationalise JOINT’s key concepts.

Literature review on relationship between EU foreign policy and member states' foreign policies

Literature review on the relationship between EU foreign policy and the foreign policies of member states and thus flesh out JOINTs conceptualisation of EUFSP as multiactor The review will delve into the historically diverse academic debate about EU foreign policy

Literature review of implications of internal EU contestation for crises and conflict

The literature review on intraEU contestation will be conducted with a view to investigating the cleavages in the foreign policy debates inside EU countries both at the societal and elitepolitical level WP2 will consider how domestic forces construe major international trends and develop a corresponding understanding of their interest in supportingconstraining EU foreign and security policy It will consider both direct and indirect effects of member states contestation in that it will assess the extent to which nationalistic if not Eurosceptic narratives shape or influence domestic political debates possibly affecting member states consensus on EU foreign and security policy The review will devote special attention to studies highlighting the connection between the fractiousness of the foreign policy debate inside the EU and the outbreak and endurance of crises and conflicts

Publications

Regional Fragmentation and EU Foreign and Security Policy

Author(s): Agnès Levallois et al.,
Published in: JOINT Research Papers, Issue 3, 2021
Publisher: IAI

The Return of US Leadership in Europe: Biden and the Russia Crisis

Author(s): Riccardo Alcaro
Published in: JOINT Briefs, Issue 10, 2022
Publisher: IAI

A Joined-Up Union, a Stronger Europe. A Conceptual Framework to Investigate EU Foreign and Security Policy in a Complex and Contested World

Author(s): Riccardo Alcaro, Pol Bargués and Hylke Dijkstra
Published in: JOINT Research Papers, Issue 8, 2022
Publisher: IAI

Multipolarity and EU Foreign and Security Policy: Divergent Approaches to Conflict and Crisis Response

Author(s): Assem Dandashly et al.
Published in: JOINT Research Papers, Issue 6, 2021
Publisher: IAI

The Internal Contestation of EU Foreign and Security Policy. A Literature Review of the Implications of Intra-EU Contestation on Crises and Conflicts

Author(s): Marianna Lovato et al.
Published in: JOINT Research Papers, Issue 1, 2021
Publisher: IAI

The EU and the Ukraine War: Making Sense of the Rise of a “Geopolitical” Union

Author(s): Riccardo Alcaro
Published in: JOINT Briefs, Issue 13, 2022
Publisher: IAI

Multi-Layered Actions? Sustaining Partnerships in the EU Integrated Approach to Conflicts and Crises

Author(s): Dylan Macchiarini Crosson et al.
Published in: JOINT Research Papers, Issue 7, 2021
Publisher: IAI

Collateral Damage: How EU Internal Policies Shape Crises and Conflict Abroad

Author(s): Kristina Kausch
Published in: JOINT Research Papers, Issue 5, 2021
Publisher: IAI

The Continued Downturn of US–China Relations and Beijing’s Approach to the Ukraine Crisis

Author(s): Yinhong Shi
Published in: JOINT Briefs, Issue 11, 2022
Publisher: IAI

The Constraints on the EU Foreign and Security Policy

Author(s): Riccardo Alcaro
Published in: JOINT Briefs, Issue 1, 2021
Publisher: IAI

Four Scenarios for the Iran Nuclear Deal

Author(s): Riccardo Alcaro
Published in: JOINT Briefs, Issue 6, 2021
Publisher: IAI

Identity and Transitional Justice in the Horn of Africa and Libya

Author(s): Jesutimilehin O. Akamo
Published in: JOINT Briefs, Issue 3, 2021
Publisher: IAI

Europe’s Post-Cold War Order Is No More

Author(s): Riccardo Alcaro
Published in: JOINT Briefs, Issue 12, 2022
Publisher: IAI

Afghanistan, AUKUS and European Strategic Autonomy

Author(s): Pol Morillas,
Published in: JOINT Briefs, Issue 4, 2021
Publisher: IAI

Russia–Ukraine Talks and the Indispensable Role of the US and Europe

Author(s): Riccardo Alcaro
Published in: JOINT Briefs, Issue 14, 2022
Publisher: IAI

European Reactions to AUKUS and Implications for EU Strategic Autonomy

Author(s): Marta Marafona,
Published in: JOINT Briefs, Issue 5, 2021
Publisher: IAI

The War in Ukraine and Studying the EU as a Security Actor

Author(s): Hylke Dijkstra
Published in: JOINT Briefs, Issue 15, 2022
Publisher: IAI

Europe in a Complex and Contested World: Perspectives from the US, China, Russia and Iran

Author(s): Giulio Pugliese
Published in: JOINT Reports, Issue 1, 2021
Publisher: IAI

The Italy–France Treaty is an Example of Wise Diplomacy

Author(s): Riccardo Alcaro
Published in: JOINT Briefs, Issue 7, 2021
Publisher: IAI

Conceptualising the Multi-Actor Character of EU(rope)'s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Pernille Rieker and Mathilde Tomine Eriksdatter Giske
Published in: JOINT Research Papers, Issue 2, 2021
Publisher: IAI

Laying the Groundwork for Peace in a Fragmented Libya

Author(s): Jesutimilehin O. Akamo
Published in: JOINT Briefs, Issue 8, 2022
Publisher: IAI

Biden’s Foreign Policy Casts a Long Shadow

Author(s): Riccardo Alcaro
Published in: JOINT Briefs, Issue 9, 2022
Publisher: IAI

Not Yet Fit for the World: Piecemeal Buildup of EU Military, Cyber and Intelligence Assets

Author(s): Kristi Raik et al.,
Published in: JOINT Research Papers, Issue 4, 2021
Publisher: IAI

Europe’s Naval Engagement in the South China Sea

Author(s): Giulio Pugliese
Published in: JOINT Briefs, Issue 2, 2021
Publisher: IAI

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