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THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RADIOLOGICAL ACCIDENT DECISION AIDING SYSTEM

Objective

The RADE-AID project was set up by the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) as a postChernobyl project. The project was to be jointly executed by three contractors, TNO (NL), KfK (D) and NRPB (UK) and it was to run initially for two years from January 1988. The purpose of the contract was to develop a computer system which could aid decisions on countermeasures following a radiological emergency.

As a result of the contract a prototype computer program has been written which helps a decision-maker to structure the problem and investigate the consequences of and possible bases for, different countermeasure strategies. In order to demonstrate the potential of this decision tool, some illustrative applications were developed, which explored its use for decisions on the countermeasures of relocation and food interdiction. The prototype and a copy of the final report are available for organizations actively involved in research related to the RADE-AID project. The present contract is a continuation of the first RADE-AID contract. The computer system will be further developed with particular reference to the user interface, the decision logic, the database of model predictions supplied for use with the system and in consultation with decision-makers. In addition to providing assistance to a decision-maker following an accident, it is intended that this system could be used in the development of emergency lans and as a tool for assisting in the training of those with responsibility for managing the response of accidents.
The radiological accident decision aiding computer system, RADE-AID, is under further development with particular reference to the user interface, the decision logic and a database of model predictions supplied for use with the system. As part of the decision aiding system, an expert system shell has been developed. To develop the structure and content of the rules to be implemented into the system, several meetings with German experts involved in decision making have been organized. Based on case studies with different release characteristics, countermeasure strategies, environmental situations, and the corresponding spectrum of consequences precalculated by the program package COSYMA, various questions and problems were discussed for prerelease and release conditions such as:
principle rules of emergency response;
relevance of different consequence types and quantities in the decision process (doses and/or health effects, economic impact);
the availability of technical equipment and manpower;
the size of areas with sheltering and evacuation and the timing of these actions including the behaviour of the population;
and the role of existing recommendations and emergency plans.
From these meetings, a fundamental rule structure could be identified.

Example sets of preference functions and weighting factors been generated without input from the decision maker side and integrated in the form of separate routines into the rule structure of the expert system. Thus, a combination of a rule based system with multiattribute value theory resulted which allows exploration of the interaction between both methods and their potential application in computerized real time decision support systems.

In the development of a radiological accident decision aiding system, RADE-AID, 2 versions of the decsion aidingsoftware are being developed, namely DATUM and DATARADE. DATUM is a multiattribute analysis tool for general applicability while DATARADE is the version of DATUM for radiological applications. Initial contacts have been made with 3 organisations in the United Kingdom, who have responsibility for decision making in a radiological protection context, in order to explore ways in which the software could be tailored more closely to their needs, in terms of the presentation of information, functionality provided and ease of use.

The radiological database for the DATARADE software has been designed, together with the necessary interface to the decision aiding software. Existing accident consequence models have been adapted to predict the long term radiological, economic and social consequences of notional United Kingdom accidents occurring in different weather conditions. The full database will contain information on the consequences of adopting a range of relocation and food interdiction strategies. A limited version of the database has been developed based on the results for a range of relocation strategies. More data is required to expand the relocation database for application to the Netherlands and the Federal Republic of Germany. Currently the use of data interpolation procedures are being explored in order to limit the eventual size of the database.

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

Business Unit of TNO Built Environment and Geosciences
Address
Van Mourik Broekmanweg 6
2628 XE Delft
Netherlands

Participants (2)

Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Technik und Umwelt GmbH
Germany
Address

76021 Karlsruhe
NATIONAL RADIOLOGICAL PROTECTION BOARD
United Kingdom
Address

OX11 0RQ Didcot,harwell,chilton