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Development of a method for air transport Safety Improvement through quantitative Risk Evaluation


Objectives and content
The objective of the project is to develop and evaluate a
quantitative risk assessment model of air transport
safety which allows cost benefit analysis of safety
measures and a design approach to air transport safety
In this project, risk is defined as the combination of
the probability of events and the consequence of events
in terms of cost.
This project will start with an assessment of the factors
that govern the need to improve aviation safety. Safety
assessment techniques that are currently being used will
be evaluated, and developments in risk based regulation
will be reviewed, including a discussion on safety
criteria that should be used to establish a closed loop
approach towards aviation safety. The role of
cost/benefit criteria used by decision makers in the
aviation system will also be discussed in the perspective
of current safety assessment techniques. This will result
in a framework for the development of a risk assessment
This is followed by the development of taxonomy of causal
and contributing factors in aviation accidents and
incidents, and the establishment of the frequency of
occurrence of these factors. The potential of in- flight
recorded data to establish the frequency of occurrence of
causal factors in normal operations and to predict nonnominal event probabilities will be evaluated. Movement
data will be used in an innovative manner to establish
the frequency of occurrence of causal factors in normal
operations. Classical component data will be used to
determine system failure rates. Using these data the
association between causal factors and event
probabilities will be established and quantified.
In order to allow cost benefit analyses, this project
will develop taxonomy of cost factors, which will lay
down the structural groundwork for the establishment of a
cost database. This database will be fed on a gradual
basis from different sources, such as databases or
experience from insurance companies (claim databases),
manufacturers and airlines. Evaluation of the cost
taxonomy and the structure of the cost database will be
conducted by performing several case studies.
Based on the causal factor and cost information a causal
model for risk assessment will be built by identifying a
set of basic elements that should be retained from
existing methodologies and by developing or utilising
more modern approaches for the inclusion of typical
dynamic and socio-economic aspects in safety assessment.
Subsequently, the upper level of the causal structure
will be quantified.
Finally, the causal model architecture that has been
developed will be applied to a number of practical test
cases. These will include aspects of Human Factors,
dynamic conditions and cost benefit analyses. The most
important objective of these case studies is to
demonstrate that the requirements for a new causal
methodology can be met by a number of well contemplated
specifications and that important practical applications
exist which can be addressed successfully with such new

Call for proposal

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EU contribution
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2,Anthony Fokkerweg 2

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Total cost
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Participants (5)