DEVELOPMENT OF A DETAILED ENERGY SYSTEM SIMULATION MODEL FOR THE EC COUNTRIES ON THE BASIS OF THE SOFTWARE AND MODEL STRUCTURE OF THE DANISH ENERGY SYSTEM MODEL, WHICH INCLUDE A DETAILED TECHNICO-ECONOMIC DESCRIPTION OF THE ENERGY PRODUCING AND TRANSFORMATION UNITS, IN PARTICULAR THE POWER GENERATION UNITS AS WELL AS DISTRICT HEATING AND CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES FOR A PERIOD OF 20-30 YEARS.
The energy balance is decomposed into energy demand activities and unit consumption, which is met by energy conservation and demand technologies. The overall purpose was to provide a flexible and easily understandable tool for translating energy demand forecasts into their economic and environmental consequences. The model was used for the Danish energy planning during the 1980s, and the methodology was tested in other counties.
The modelling tool was rewritten for spreadsheet software to be used for the Danish energy and environmental planning 1990 and 1996 (the BRUS model). This is a technical economic model with an integrated treatment of energy demand and supply which allows for the calculation of demand driven scenarios for tyhe reduction of CO2. The methodology and general model structure are applicable to other national or regional systems.
The overall purpose of the environment model for Denmark is to provide a flexible and easily understandable tool for translating energy demand forecasts into their economic and environmental consequences. On the basis of costs of operation and maintenance, and efficiencies, the power production and the fuel consumption of different plant categories can be simulated.
THE DESS-MODEL (DETAILED ENERGY SYSTEM SIMULATION) TRANSLATES ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTS INTO ANNUAL PRIMARY ENERGY REQUIREMENTS, ENERGY SYSTEM COSTS, AND SELECTED ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES. IT CAN BE USED FOR PARTIAL STUDIES OF THE ENERGY SYSTEM, EG THE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF NUCLEAR POWER, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES OF ENERGY SYSTEM CHANGES AND SCENARIOS FOR LONG TERM CONSEQUENCES OF THE TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT.
THE MODEL MAY ALSO BE USED FOR CALCULATIONS OF SCENARIOS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ENERGY SYSTEM FOR A PERIOD UP TO 40 YEARS, OR, FOR A SELECTED YEAR, OR FOR A NUMBER OF SCENARIOS THAT ARE ALTERNATIVES TO A REFERENCE SCENARIO.
GIVEN A SET OF FORECASTS FOR THE DEMAND FOR USEFUL ENERGY, ENERGY PRICES, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVERSION AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM, THE MODEL PRODUCES DETAILED RESULTS OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE FUTURE ENERGY SUPPLY SYSTEM INCLUDING THE PRIMARY ENERGY REQUIREMENTS, THE COSTS OF THEENERGY SYSTEMS, AND SELECTED ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES, EG SO2 AND NOX EMISSIONS.
THE MODEL WHICH IS ALREADY IMPLEMENTED FOR THE DANISH ENERGY SYSTEM, WILL NOW BE EXTENDED TO OTHER COUNTRIES OF THE EC ON THE BASIS OF THE SOFTWARE AND THE MODEL STRUCTURE OF THE DANISH MODEL.