Electrical power production in West Germany shows a small risk in relation to the safety of the fuel supply; about 90% of the total generation is produced by nuclear energy, lignite, indigenous coal and water. Before investigating more closely wind energy in West Germany, 2 aspects are being kept in mind: the small growth rate of electricity consumption and accordingly a comparatively small power plant construction programme up to the year 2000 and, with reference to environmental problems, the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the air generated by all conventional steam power stations.
THE PRESENT STUDY OFFERS A BETTER INSIGHT INTO THE ECONOMICAL AND TECHNICAL PROBLEMS ARISING WITH INCREASING WIND PENETRATION INTO AN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM. THE SIMULATION MODELS DEVELOPED HERE HAVE MADE IT POSSIBLE TO DEPICT A SEQUENCE OF SCENARI WITH DIFFERENT PARAMETERS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN, THE FUTURE PRICE DEVELOPMENT ON THE WORLD COAL MARKET (IT HAS BEEN ASSUMED HERE THAT WIND ENERGY WILL REPLACE GENERATING BY COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS), THE INFLUENCE OF WIND POTENTIAL AND OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE COSTS HAVE BEEN ANALYSED. TO CALCULATE THE COST-BENEFIT RATIO WITHIN DIFFERENT SCENARI, THE CAPACITY CREDIT OF WIND TURBINES (RATIO OF SAFE CAPACITY SHARE TO INSTALLED CAPACITY) HAS ALSO BEEN COMPUTED ON A SPECIAL MODEL. THE JUSTIFIED EXPENDITURE FOR 3 MW AND 250 KW WIND TURBINES IN WIND CLASSES 1 AND 2 FOR 2 DIFFERENT WORLD COAL PRICE SCENARI ARE SHOWN DEPENDING ON THE INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN. THIS JUSTIFIED EXPENDITURE CAN BE DIRECTLY COMPARED WITH ESTIMATES FROM THE WIND TURBINE MANUFACTURERS, INASMUCH AS THESE INCLUDE ALL INVESTMENT COSTS PER KW UP TO THE TRANSFORMER STATION.