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Content archived on 2024-05-15

Assessing climate response options: policy simulations - insights from using national and international models (ACROPOLIS)


Objectives and problems to be solved:
ACROPOLIS aims at applying and comparing existing models to assess the impact of energy technologies and policy measures on GHG emissions and on sustainability in a global systems analysis perspective. The questions to be explored are to what extent technologies can facilitate the required emission reductions both in the short and long term and to what extent policies can foster the development of new technologies and their subsequent deployment. The framework of the Kyoto Protocol shows a clear need for policy makers and governments having access to analytic resources for an evaluation from technological, environmental and economic perspectives. The various options have to be considered and integrated on the national, regional and world level. This is done with a variety of models on basis of a comparison of scenario runs.
Description of work:
The work follows six distinct phases:
1. Compatibilisation and homogenisation of initial conditions needed to define the baseline or the business as usual case for each of the used models.
2. On this basis, the impact of a full internalisation of external costs in energy production and use is examined. It is considered, that an additional charge on energy products will reflect the environmental damages from climate change, the risks of accidents and the damages form other pollutants.
3. The following phase illuminates the impact of a regulatory policy in the energy supply side by a renewable portfolio and tradable green certificates.
4. The next task is to model and discuss the impact of a policy of increasing energy efficiency standards. Such standards could be the minimum required efficiency ratio for new appliances (e.g. refrigerators), new cars (litres per 100 km), new processes or new power plants.
5. A further topic is to examine the impacts of international flexibility mechanisms, where CO2 emission permits are traded at a world level. The regional distributive effects regarding the emission reduction effort per region and the macroeconomic and energy system costs are discussed.
6. Finally, the results are reported and disseminated.
Expected Results and Exploitation Plans:
The described tasks are the actual topics of policy makers. Model runs give an overview about the impact of the internalisation of external costs, renewable portfolios, tradable green certificates, energy efficiencies and trading of CO2 emission permits. It is shown, how political measures impact in different countries. Furthermore all scenarios are based on common initial assumptions so that the results can be analysed and assessed on one common basis. It is expected, that single political measures will be shown as especially effective for all regions under different national circumstances. Common results from different European, Swiss, Japanese and Canadian research institutes might be more trustful and easier to disseminate in the public, to governments and political responsible people.

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