Assessment of the Uncertainties in Risk Analysis of Chemical Establishments

Objective

The project will address the research area on industrial safety, specifically the examination of vaIiations in safety hazard and risk analysis in Europe, across a range of risk sources building on the basis of current and previous European research initiatives, including comparison and examination of deterministic and probabilistic methods for analysis of public risk from chemical plant hazards.

Risk assessment has proven to be a powerful tool in controlling the risk of major accidents in industrial installations. The assessment of the uncertainties and of the way these can affect the final outcome of risk studies is the main scope of the project. All types of uncertainties will be addressed, including the different approaches used, (e.g.
probabilistic, reference scenarios, etc.).

The objectives of the proposal are:

(i) to assess the state-of-the-art of risk analysis in the European Union
(ii) to investigate the approaches used to deal with the uncertainties
(iii) to describe the quality of risk analysis techniques by assessment of related uncertainties

(iv) to investigate and gain insight on the approaches, techniques, models and assumptions applied, to be able to explain discrepancies and deviations
(v) to investigate the benefit from the use of risk assessment techniques in specifying risk reduction measures

The objectives will be met through the use of benchmark exercises, i.e. case studies carried out by different risk analysis teams independently. A reference plant - an ammonia storage facility - will be analysed by all partners and used a framework for the benchmarks on the elements with an impact on the uncertainty.

The outcome of the project will be a higher level of understanding the various parameters and issues that influence the estimation of risk and thereby improve the general quality of risk assessment. An important element in the dissemination of the results will be a workshop organised in cooperation with the competent authorities and DG XI, scheduled for the third year of the project.

Programme(s)

• FP4-ENV 2C - Specific programme of research and technological development in the field of environment and climate, 1994-1998

Topic(s)

• 02020103 - Industrial safety

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

RISOE NATIONAL LABORATORY

Address

Frederiksborgvej 399
4000 Roskilde
Denmark

Participants (8)

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES

Italy

Address

Via Enrico Fermi 1
21020 Ispra

Det Norske Veritas Ltd

United Kingdom

Address

Exchange Street
SK3 0ET Stockport

Health and Safety Executive

United Kingdom

Address

University Road
L20 3RA Bootle

Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques

France

Address

Parc Technologique Alata
60550 Verneuil-en-halatte

NATIONAL CENTRE FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH 'DEMOKRITOS'

Greece

Address

Terma Patriarchou Grigoriou
15310 Athens

Nederlandse Organisatie voor Toegepast Natuurwetenschappelijk Onderzoek

Netherlands

Address

501,Laan Van Westenenk
7300 AH Apeldoorn

Università degli Studi di Bologna

Italy

Address

Viale Risorgimento 2
40136 Bologna

VTT - Technical Research Centre of Finland

Finland

Address

Tekniikankatu 1
33101 Tampere