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Assessment of the Uncertainties in Risk Analysis of Chemical Establishments

Objective



The project will address the research area on industrial safety, specifically the examination of vaIiations in safety hazard and risk analysis in Europe, across a range of risk sources building on the basis of current and previous European research initiatives, including comparison and examination of deterministic and probabilistic methods for analysis of public risk from chemical plant hazards.

Risk assessment has proven to be a powerful tool in controlling the risk of major accidents in industrial installations. The assessment of the uncertainties and of the way these can affect the final outcome of risk studies is the main scope of the project. All types of uncertainties will be addressed, including the different approaches used, (e.g.
probabilistic, reference scenarios, etc.).

The objectives of the proposal are:

(i) to assess the state-of-the-art of risk analysis in the European Union
(ii) to investigate the approaches used to deal with the uncertainties
(iii) to describe the quality of risk analysis techniques by assessment of related uncertainties

(iv) to investigate and gain insight on the approaches, techniques, models and assumptions applied, to be able to explain discrepancies and deviations
(v) to investigate the benefit from the use of risk assessment techniques in specifying risk reduction measures

The objectives will be met through the use of benchmark exercises, i.e. case studies carried out by different risk analysis teams independently. A reference plant - an ammonia storage facility - will be analysed by all partners and used a framework for the benchmarks on the elements with an impact on the uncertainty.

The outcome of the project will be a higher level of understanding the various parameters and issues that influence the estimation of risk and thereby improve the general quality of risk assessment. An important element in the dissemination of the results will be a workshop organised in cooperation with the competent authorities and DG XI, scheduled for the third year of the project.

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

RISOE NATIONAL LABORATORY
Address
Frederiksborgvej 399
4000 Roskilde
Denmark

Participants (8)

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
Italy
Address
Via Enrico Fermi 1
21020 Ispra
Det Norske Veritas Ltd
United Kingdom
Address
Exchange Street
SK3 0ET Stockport
Health and Safety Executive
United Kingdom
Address
University Road
L20 3RA Bootle
Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques
France
Address
Parc Technologique Alata
60550 Verneuil-en-halatte
NATIONAL CENTRE FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH 'DEMOKRITOS'
Greece
Address
Terma Patriarchou Grigoriou
15310 Athens
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Toegepast Natuurwetenschappelijk Onderzoek
Netherlands
Address
501,Laan Van Westenenk
7300 AH Apeldoorn
Università degli Studi di Bologna
Italy
Address
Viale Risorgimento 2
40136 Bologna
VTT - Technical Research Centre of Finland
Finland
Address
Tekniikankatu 1
33101 Tampere