Objectif
The general lack of long-term observational climate data results in uncertainties in the understanding of global change and in the ability to predict future changes. Because of the similarities in the distribution of solar radiation and Earth boundary conditions, Holocene palaeoclimates, in particular, can offer insights into the dynamics of climate change as well as providing a means to test the validity of different circulation models (GCMs). The overall goal of this study is to improve knowledge of Holocene climate evolution and variability by producing high-resolution, multi-proxy, and quantitative climate reconstructions across Europe. A particular emphasis will be paid to the spatial and temporal variation of Holocene climates and the relevance of these patterns to the validation and improvement of GCM simulations. The reconstructions will be achieved through the analysis of the extensive and unique proxy data available from the sedimentary deposits of remote high-altitude alpine and sub-arctic European lakes, largely unaffected by human impact. The approach is highly focused, innovative, methodologically harmonised, and has an explicit multi-proxy nature. The project will improve, expand and apply existing quantitative inference models (transfer functions), based on regional quality-controlled modern organism-climate calibration data-sets, to reconstruct past climates from biological sedimentary sources such as chironomids, cladocerans, diatoms, chrysophyceans, and pollen. The most rigorous numerical techniques available, such as weighted averaging calibration and regression techniques (WA), WA partial least squares regression (WA-PLS), and modern analogue techniques (MAT) will be used in the reconstruction along with sample-specific errors of prediction. The climate reconstructions derived from the biological data will be complemented by various geochemical and sedimentological analyses, and the overall methodology will be validated by statistical comparison with instrumentally measured climate data. Considerable effort will be paid to sediment sequence quality control, chronology, analytical quality control, and taxonomic consistency and harmonisation throughout the work. The final result will be numerical, reliable, statistically-verifiable, precisely-dated, and spatially-weighted reconstructions of European climate within the last 10,000 years. These reconstructions incorporate both low-frequency and high-frequency data on climate variability. Since predictions of the effects of future climate change largely depend on the development of the climate models themselves, the reconstructions provided by this study will be of significant importance to the European Community and its science, by allowing modellers to develop better tools to test different theories and forcing factors about the mechanism of climate change. Moreover, our approach will not only provide information about climatic changes on temporal and spatial scales that are pertinent to human activity, but it will also document the impact of those changes on the surrounding environment. The consortium brings together 7 partners and 2 associates from 8 European countries. The participating organisations are internationally recognised as major contributors to their respective fields of study. All participants have experience in collaborative research, some of them have collaborated succesfully together in the recent past, and all have shown considerable ability to produce high-quality palaeoclimatic and other palaeoenvironmental reconstructions. Because the Nordic project partners have already received initial funding for the study, and and because no EC funds are requested for the involvement of the Swiss partner, we have the opportunity to perform the proposed reserach project for a very low cost. The work we propose therefore represents exceptional value for money and will produce new results that are of wide interest to other researchers investigating the mechanisms and factorswhich have affected the climate of the Northern Hemisphere. Holocene, climate change, reconstruction, lake sediments, aquaticKEYWORDS(max 10): organisms, transfer function, GCM validation, ecosystem response. 02
Champ scientifique
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencespalaeontologypaleoclimatology
- humanitieshistory and archaeologyhistory
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesmeteorologysolar radiation
- natural sciencesbiological sciencesecologyecosystems
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
Appel à propositions
Data not availableRégime de financement
CSC - Cost-sharing contractsCoordinateur
00014 HELSINKI
Finlande