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Human and structural vulnerability assessment for emergency planning in a future eruption of vesuvius using volcanic simulation and casualty modelling

Objective



THE OBJECTIVES OF THIS PROPOSAL INCLUDE THE APPLICATION OF ONE OF THE MOST ADVANCED NUMERICAL SIMULATION MODELS OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS TO DEVELOP A RANGE OF THE MOST PROBABLY ERUPTIVE SCENARIOS FOR A FORTHCOMING ERUPTION OF VESUVIUS; TO APPLY THESE SCENARIOS TO A FIELD STUDY OF THE STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGS IN THE HAZARD ZONES AND THE POSSIBLE PROTECTION THEY MAY PROVIDE ANY OCCUPANTS IN THE EVENT OF A WORST FORESEEABLE SCENARIO; AND TO DEVELOP AND USE A REGIONAL CASUALTY MODEL TO EVALUATE THE IMPACT OF THE DESTRUCTION OF ROUTES AND MEDICAL AND OTHER FACILITIES IN REDUCING THE SURVIVAL OF CASUALTIES. THEORETICAL ESTIMATES OF POTENTIAL DEATHS AND INJURIES IN DIFFERENT SCENARIOS, AND THE POSSIBLE LOAD OF CASUALTIES ON REGIONAL AND NATIONAL EMERGENCY TREATMENT RESOURCES, WILL HIGHLIGHT THE IMPORTANCE OF EMERGENCY PLANNING FOR EVACUATION AND OTHER DISASTER REDUCTION MEASURES, SUCH AS COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTIVE ENGINEERING MEASURES, ALERT AND WARNING SYSTEMS AND LAND USE PLANNING (INCLUDING TRANSPORTATION LINKS). THE ADAPTATION OF THE VOLCANIC NUMERICAL SIMULATION TO RUN MODELS THAT REVEAL THE KEY BUILDING DAMAGE AND HUMAN SURVIVAL PARAMETERS OF DYNAMIC PRESSURE, TEMPERATURE AND PARTICLE CONCENTRATION SHOULD LEAD TO NEW AND INNOVATIVE ADVANCES IN THE USE OF SIMULATION MODELLING IN VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT AT VESUVIUS, WHILST THE FINDINGS COULD BE APPLIED IN OTHER DENSELY POPULATED AREAS, OR ISLANDS, IN VOLCANIC AREAS IN EUROPE AND AROUND THE WORLD. THIS INTERDISCIPLINARY PROJECT OF SIMULATION MODELLING AND HUMAN STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY TO PYROCLASTIC FLOWS WILL LAST TWO YEARS AND INVOLVE THREE SEPARATE TEAMS COMPRISING EXPERTISE IN VOLCANOLOGY, STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING, ARCHITECTURE AND MEDICINE.

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

The Chancellor, Masters and Scholars of the University of Cambridge
Address
Robinson Way
CB2 2SR Cambridge
United Kingdom

Participants (2)

Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
Italy
Address
Via Santa Maria 53
56126 Pisa
Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II
Italy
Address
Via G. Sanfelice 8
80134 Napoli