To undertake short-term geophysical monitoring of Mount Etna for quantifying downslope movement; to develop models to understand source mechanisms for instability and downslope movement; to construct a hazard zonation map for Mount Etna surrounding region; to initiate the development of the technology leading to the provision of an automated hazard warning system; to develop recommendations for monitoring of Mount Etna and the mitigation of future slope failure effects.
The project has 5 research tasks:
1. Using outputs from GCM experiments relating to the transient effects on climate of increasing greenhouse gases, to evaluate the magnitudes and rates at which these effects are likely to occur and the changes in probability distribution of extreme events that are important in determining the variability of agricultural production.
2. Using a Europe-wide geographic information system, to identify those regions and farming types where specified magnitudes and rates of climatic change are likely to have critical effects on selected thresholds of agroclimatic parameters (e.g. effective temperature sums, levels of available soil water, etc.).
3. Using well-validated crop climate models over a network of sites in regions identified in Task 2, to examine the sensitivity to the same climatic changes of yields of a number of different crop types throughout the geographical area of Europe.
4. To support the crop growth modelling research with an experimental programme deriving fundamental data on the effect of increased CO2 and temperature on the growth, development, yield and harvest index of stands of crops. This and other data sets will be used to develop and evaluate existing models of cereal and vegetable crop growth. The models will be used to evaluate the combined effects of climate change and elevated CO2 levels on crop production in the EC.
5. Using detailed crop climate models, to evaluate the range of changes in management (e.g. in cultivation, crop type, fertilizing and irrigation) that would represent the mix of optimal responses to climate-induced changes in agricultural potential.
Funding SchemeCSC - Cost-sharing contracts
GL50 2QF Cheltenham