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Earthquake prediction studies in Central Italy and Greece

Objective



This proposal responds to item 6.4.3 Multidisciplinary
Earthquake prediction Studies the EPOCH programme. Researchers from five european countries will jointly work on three test sites in order to mount multidisciplinary field Laboratories for research on earthquake prediction techniques. The research
program includes geologists, tectonicists, seismologists,
geodesists, geomagneticians and geochemists. Not all the
techniques are of course likely to be equally successfull in all the sites; for this reason we have established work plans that are adapted to the particular conditions of each one of them. The three sites to be studied are
1. Grand-Sasso in the central Appennines of Italy. This area was the site of a large earthquake in 1456 and has since suffered several medium magnitude events. At present it is in seismic quiescence and is considered as a likely site for a future event. We propose to implement a test site connected with the grand Sasso research programme of Instituto Nazionale di Fisica
Nucleare. The research programme includes a reinforcement of the local seismic network by high dynamic range instruments for
detailed studies of waveforms. Borehole Seismometry by the
installation of a third deep instrument in addition to two
existing ones. Geodetic studies for an improved coverage of local levelling and triangulation networks. Two Borehole Tiltmeters will monitor abnormal variations of tidal potential as in the Northern Anatolian fault programme. Geochemical precursors will be monitored by a team of italian researchers. Electric and
Magnetic precursors will be monitored in collaboration with
another EPOCH project. Finally, french and italian researchers will carry out seismotectonic studies in order to identify the sources of earthquakes and their relation to presently active fauits.
2. Gulf of Corinth where a complete sismotectonic programme will be carried out for the identification of active fauits and the estimation of recurrence times of large events from paleo- and historical seismology. Large and small scales geodetic networks will be installed for monitoring slow deformation across the Corinth graben and control deformation at some specific fauits. A continuous monitoring of seismic activity will be available from a telemetered seismic network being installed by greek
researchers and will allow a comparison between slow and seismic deformation.
3. Volos Seismic prediction experiment. Here an existing seismic network will be reinforced by greek, german and french
participants in order to obtain detailed seismicity and focal mechanisms. A large scale experiment with portable instruments will be carried out by Grenoble, Cambridge, Athens and
Thessaloniki in order to establish the seismo tectonics of Volos and the Northern Aegean Sea. A high dynamic range network will be deployed by greek, french and british participants in order to do carefull waveform modeling and to study possible time variations in seismic velocities, anisotropy and attenuation. A careful test of new instruments developped in paris for the measurement of the geomagnetic field will be carried out; and, finally, geochemical precursors will be monitored on an experimental basis.

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Address
4 Place Jussieu
75252 Paris
France

Participants (5)

ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY OF THESSALONIKI
Greece
Address

54006 Thessalonki
GEOFORSCHUNGSZENTRUM POTSDAM
Germany
Address
Telegraphenberg
14473 Potsdam
ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI FISICA NUCLEARE
Italy
Address
Strada Statale 17Bis Km.18+910
67010 Assergi
NATIONAL AND KAPODISTRIAN UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS
Greece
Address
Panepistimioupolis Ilissia
15784 Zographos, Athens
NERC British Geological Survey
United Kingdom
Address
Murchison House West Mains Road
EH9 3LA Edinburgh