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COHERENCE OF CLIMATIC CHANGE IN EUROPE AND CLIMATIC FLUCTUATIONS OF DROUGHT AND HUMIDITY OVER THE LAST MILLENIUM

Objective



THE LONGEST AVAILABLE HOMOGENEOUS AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA SERIES FROM EUROPEAN WEATHER STATIONS WILL BE USED TO OBJECTIVELY CONSTRUCT TIME SERIES MODELS EACH CONSISTING OF AN OVERALL MEAN, A SEASONAL COMPONENT AND "NOISE" TERM WHICH WILL BE REPRESENTED BY AN AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESS. IN THIS WAY, OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF CLIMATIC TRENDS AT VARIOUS EUROPEAN STATIONS WILL BE GIVEN. AIR TEMPERATURE DATA WILL CONSIST OF MONTHLY MEANS AND THEY WILL INCLUDE BOTH GROUP AND RADIOSONDE OBSERVATIONS. WEATHER STATIONS WILL ALSO BE GROUPED IN SIMILAR CLIMATIC REGIMES AND EACH TREND ESTIMATE WILL BE TESTED SEPARATELY FOR ITS STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE. THE RESULTS OF THIS ANALYSIS WILL BE COMPARED WITH MODEL PREDICTIONS OF THE EXPECTED GREENHOUSE EFFECT FOR KNOWN CO2 AND OTHER TRACE GASES INCREASING SCENARIOS.
EXTREME CLIMATIC EVENTS IN EUROPE WILL ALSO BE STUDIED AND ATTEMPT WILL BE MADE TO RECONSTRUCT THEIR GEOGRAPHICAL PATTERNS. THE COMPILATION OF EXTREME EVENTS WILL BE EXTENDED FROM THE INSTRUMENTAL ERA BACK TO THE YEAR ABOUT 1000 AD FROM HISTORICAL SOURCES. THIS PART OF THE COMPILATION WILL START ALREADY IN PHASE. THE HISTORICAL SOURCE WILL BE FOUND IN ANCIENT CODICES, MANUSCRIPTS AND TRAVELLERS OBSERVATIONS FROM GREECE AND HOLLAND WHICH ARE, OR WILL BE, ARCHIVED IN THE PATRIARCHAL INSTITUTE FOR PATRISTIC STUDIES AND MANY DUTCH INSTITUTES. THIS EXTENSIVE LIST OF EVENTS WILL BE USED TO PROVIDE ESTIMATES OF THE AMPLITUDE OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES, SIMULATE THE PREVAILING SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS IN EUROPE DURING THEIR OCCURENCE AND COMPARE THEM WITH THE PREVAILING SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS IN EUROPE AT TIMES OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES DURING THE INSTRUMENTAL ERA. THE RELATIONS BETWEEN RECONSTRUCTED CLIMATIC EVENTS AT DIFFERENT EUROPEAN LOCATIONS CAN PROVIDE FURTHER CLUES ABOUT THE RESPONSE PATTERN OF EUROPEAN CLIMATE TO THE AS YET UNKNOWN CAUSES OF HISTORIC CLIMATIC CHANGES.
WELL-ESTABLISHED COHERENT AND INCOHERENT PATTERNS OF EUROPEAN CLIMATIC CHANGES WILL BE COMPARED WITH AVAILABLE RESPONSE PATTERNS FROM CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SPECIAL EMPHASIS WILL BE GIVEN TO CLIMATIC RESPONSE PATTERNS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 AND OTHER TRACE GAS INCREASES IN EUROPE.

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

PATRIARCHAL INSTITUTE FOR PATRISTIC STUDIES
Address
Moni Vlatadon Eptapyrgiou 14
54634 Thessaloniki
Greece

Participants (3)

RIJKSUNIVERSITEIT
ROYAL NETHERLAND METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
UNIVERSITY OF UTRECHT