Skip to main content

INVESTIGATION OF PAST AND FUTURE EUROPEAN SEA LEVEL CHANGES AND THEIR IMPACTS

Objective



THE PROPOSED PROGRAMME OF RESEARCH INTO EUROPEAN SEA LEVELS CAN BE DIVIDED INTO FOUR MAJOR PARTS :PART 1 - AN INVESTIGATION OF EUROPEAN SEA LEVEL TRENDS USING GEOLOGICAL AND ARCHEOLOGICAL DATA FROM THE RELATIVELY RECENT PAST.PART 2 - A SET OF ANALYSES OF EUROPEAN TIDE GAUGE DATA FROM THE LAST TWO CENTURIES.PART 3 - ESTIMATES OF THE AMPLITUDES AND TIMESCALES OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE AND SEA LEVEL, TOGETHER WITH ESTIMATES OF CHANGE IN THE FREQUENCY AND MAGNITUDE OF STORM SURGES.PART 4 - AN ASSESSMENT OF THE POTENTIAL TYPES OF IMPACTS ON COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE AND THEIR GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION TOGETHER WITH A SURVEY OF THOSE AREAS OF EUROPE ALREADY EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RATES OF CHANGE IN SEA LEVEL.WE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PARTS 2 AND 3 (AS DEFINED ABOVE). IN ADDITION WE WILL CONSTRUCT A "EUROPEAN NETWORK OF INTEREST IN CURRENT SEA LEVEL CHANGES" TO BE USED AS THE BASIS FOR FUTURE WORKING GROUPS, AS AN AID IN THE SEARCH FOR HISTORICAL SEA LEVEL DATA, AND AS A MEANS OF WIDE DISTRIBUTION OF INFORMATION OF THE RESULTS OF THE CURRENT RESEARCH PROJECT.IN PART 2.1, WE WILL REVIEW COUNTRY BY COUNTRY THE QUANTITY AND QUALITY OF EUROPEAN MSL DATA RECEIVED BY THE PERMANENT SERVICE FOR MEAN SEA LEVEL AND WILL SEARCH FOR HISTORICAL DATA NOT AT PRESENT HELD. IT WILL RESOLVE DIFFICULTIES BY CORRESPONDENCE AND BY VISITS AND WILL DOCUMENT CLEARLY THE RESULTING DATA ACQUIRED AND THE REMAINING PROBLEMS. IN SPECIAL CASES OF PARTICULARLY VALUABLE HISTORICAL SEA LEVEL DATA, WE WILL MAKE EVERY EFFORT IN CONSULTATION WITH COUNTRY CONCERNED TO EFFECT THE DATA REDUCTION. THE NEW DATA WILL BE PASSED TO THE PSMSL FOR DISTRIBUTION TO THE WORLDWIDE RESEARCH COMMUNITY.IN PART 2.2, WE WILL ANALYSE THE ENLARGED PSMSL EUROPEAN DATASET RESULTING FROM PART 2.1 IN ORDER TO IDENTIFY THE LOW-FREQUENCY (TIMESCALES LONGER THAN FIVE YEARS) AND SECULAR TREND COMPONENTS. THE OCEANOGRAPHICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL FORCINGS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VARIABILITY OVER DIFFERENT TIMESCALES, AND THEIR GEOGRAPHICAL VARIATIONS, WILL BE IDENTIFIED. STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES SUCH AS PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS WILL BE USED TO DEMONSTRATE THE SPATIAL CORRELATION OF SEA LEVEL VARIABILITY OVER DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE FREQUENCY SPECTRUM.IN PART 3.2, WE WILL COMPILE AND SUPPLY STORM SURGE DATA AND STATISTICS TO THE CLIMATE RESEARCH UNIT, UEA, FROM OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL ALSO COORDINATE WITH CRU IN THE USE OF A NUMERICAL MODEL TO SIMULATE THE EXTREME VALUES AND THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS RESPONSIBLE FOR THEM WHICH CANNOT BE OBTAINED FROM EMPIRICAL ANALYSES.WE WILL PERFORM A CENTRAL ROLE IN THE COORDINATION OF THE OVERALL RESEARCH PROJECT. IN PARTICULAR, WE WILL PLAN AND ORGANISE A EUROPEAN-WIDE MEETING AFTER 2 YEARS ON LOW-FREQUENCY SEA LEVEL CHANGES AND WILL EDIT THE INDIVIDUAL SCIENTIFIC CONTRIBUTIONS TO THAT MEETING INTO A PUBLISHED CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS REPORT WHICH WILL SERVICE AS THE BEST POSSIBLE OVERVIEW OF CURRENT EUROPEAN SEA LEVEL RESEARCH.

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

NERC Institute of Oceanographic Sciences
Address
Polaris House North Star Avenue
SN2 1EU Swindon
United Kingdom

Participants (6)

CNRS
RIJKSWATERSTAAT
UNIV DI NAPOLI
UNIVERSITY OF CORK
UNIVERSITY OF DURHAM
UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA