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Content archived on 2024-04-15

MODELLING SHORT TERM CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS

Objective

TO SUPPORT THE STUDY OF THE INTERACTION OF ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN ON A GLOBAL SCALE.

THERE ARE TWO DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS USED IN THIS PROPOSAL, TWO DIFFERENT OCEAN GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS, AS WELL AS OTHER SIMPLER MODELS. THIS IS ONE OF THE GREAT STRENGTHS OF THIS PROPOSAL, THAT WE ARE DEVELOPING A HIERARCHY OF MODELS STAND-ALONE AND MORE IMPORTANTLY COUPLED PURPOSES, FOR IT IS BY INTERCOMPARING THE MODELS, AND COMPARING MODELS WITH OBSERVATIONS THAT PROGRESS WILL BE MADE IN UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE VARIABILITY, AND EXPOSING THE STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF THE DIFFERENT MODELS.IN ADDITION TO DEVELOPING DIFFERENT MODELS, WE WILL CONSIDER PUTTING THE MODELS TO DIFFERENT USES.TWO PARTICULAR TYPES OF PROBLEMS ARISE. (I) MAKING HINDCASTS AND FORECASTS FOR PERIODS OF 1 TO 2 YEARS AHEAD.INITIALLY THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE 82/83 ENSO EVENT AS WELL AS NON-ENSO PERIODS. (II) UNDERSTANDING THE PHYSICS OF THE COUPLED SYSTEM AND OF CLIMATIC FLUCTUATIONS ON THE TIME SCALE OF MONTHS TO YEARS. AT TE HOOKE INSTITUTE, WE ARE INTERESTED IN BOTH PROBLEMS BUT WILL DEVELOP DIFFERENT MODELS FOR TWO DIFFERENT PURPOSES.FOR (I) WE WILL CONSTRUCT A COUPLED GCM.THE ATMOSPHERIC GCM WILL BE THE LATEST VERSION OF THE U.K. MET OFFICE AGCM AND THE OCEAN GCM A INCREASING TO 1.5 0 IN MID OCEAN, WITH LEVELS IN THE VERTICAL. THE MODEL SIMENSION WILL COVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 30N AND 30S.IN ORDER TO PROVIDE A BALANCED INITIAL STATE FOR THE HINDCAST/FORECAST EXPERIMENTS NOTED IN (I) ABOVE, THE OCEAN MODEL WILL BE BROUGHT TO EQUILIBRIUM USING THE AGCM MEAN SURFACE FORCING.OBSERVED WIND STRESS ANOMALIES WILL THEN BE ADDED TO THE AGCM MEAN WINDS TO SIMULATE A PERIOD OF ABOUT ONE YEAR LEADING UP TO AN ENSO EVENT. COUPLED INTEGRATIONS WILL THEN BE PERFORMED FROM THE ABOVE TWO STATES.THE FIRST SHOULD REPRESENT THE CONTROL AND THE SECOND SHOULD DEVELOP A REALISTIC ENSO.PROBLEM (II) IS A GFD PROBLEM, REQUIRING MODEL INTEGRATING OF SEVERAL DECADES.WE WILL USE A SIMPLER MODEL, WHICH DOES OSCILLATE AT TIME SCALES COMPARABLE WITH ENSO AND SHOWS SOME FEATURES REMINISCENT OF ENSO. THIS MODEL HOWEVER HAS A NUMBER OF DEFICIENCIES; IT DOES NOT CONTAIN MOISTURE AND THE PARAMETERIZATION OF OCEAN THERMODYNAMICS IS TOO SIMPLE.WE PLAN TO IMPROVE THE ATMOSPHERICS MODEL BY INCLUDING A MODEL WHICH EXPLICITLY CONTAINS MOISTURE AND A CISK MECHANISM, AND TO IMPROVE THE OCEAN THERMODYNAMICS.THIS MODEL WILL COMPLIMENT THE COMPLEX HAMBURG AND HOOKE INSTITUTE GCM AND THE INTERMEDIATE MODEL OF KNMI.

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Call for proposal

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Coordinator

University of Oxford
EU contribution
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Address
Parks Road
OX1 3PU Oxford
United Kingdom

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Participants (5)