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MODELLING OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON INTERANNUAL TIMESCALES AND ITS VALIDATION

Objective

IMPROVEMENT OF SHORT TERM CLIMATE MODELLING.

THE SPACE-TIME PRINCIPAL OSCILLATION PATTERN (POP) TECHNIQUE WILL BE IMPROVED BY USING THE "PRINCIPAL PREDICTOR PATTERN"-SUBSPACE TO GET A MORE ADEQUATE DATA REDUCTION. FOR THE ESTIMATION OF THE PROCESS-MATRIX, THE MAXIMUM ENTROPY METHOD WILL BE TESTED. THE SPACE-FREQUENCY POP-TECHNIQUE WILL BE REALIZED. TO TEST THE MERITS OF THE SCHEME, IT WILL BE USED TO DIAGNOSE GEOPHYSICAL MULTICOMPONENT TIME SERIES RELATED TO EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) AND NORTH ATLANTIC COMPLEX (NAC) ALREADY ANALYSED BY OTHER TECHNIQUES AS COMPLEX EOFS OR MORE STANDARD APPROACHES.

THE SCHEDULE FOR THE PROPOSED RESEARCH IS THE FOLLOWING :

- ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM OF EQUATIONS WITHOUT STOCHASTIC TERMS.
- INTRODUCTION OF STOCHASTIC FORCING AND EVALUATION OF MOMENTS.
- EVALUATION OF POP'S CORRESPONDING TO KNOWN (ACTUAL OR MODEL) STOCHASTIC DATA FIELDS.
- DETERMINATION OF ERRORS DUE TO SAMPLING.

- APPLICATION OF SEASONAL POP'S TO GLOBAL GEOPHYSICAL DATA.
- INTERCOMPARISON, WITH POP'S, OF THE RESULTS OF MODEL CALCULATIONS PERFORMED BY OTHER GROUPS IN THE JOINT PROJECT.

Coordinator

UNIVERSIDADE DE ALCALA DE HENARES
Address
Dept. De Quimica Inorg. Plaza De San Diego

Spain

Participants (5)

HOOKE INSTIT F COOPERATIVE ATM RESEARCH
LODYC
MAX-PLANCK INSTITUT FUER METEOROLOGIE
METEOROLOGISCHE INSTITUT
ROYAL NETHER METEOR INSTITUT