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MODELLING OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON INTERANNUAL TIMESCALES AND ITS VALIDATION

Objective

IMPROVEMENT OF SHORT TERM CLIMATE MODELLING.

THE SPACE-TIME PRINCIPAL OSCILLATION PATTERN (POP) TECHNIQUE WILL BE IMPROVED BY USING THE "PRINCIPAL PREDICTOR PATTERN"-SUBSPACE TO GET A MORE ADEQUATE DATA REDUCTION. FOR THE ESTIMATION OF THE PROCESS-MATRIX, THE MAXIMUM ENTROPY METHOD WILL BE TESTED. THE SPACE-FREQUENCY POP-TECHNIQUE WILL BE REALIZED. TO TEST THE MERITS OF THE SCHEME, IT WILL BE USED TO DIAGNOSE GEOPHYSICAL MULTICOMPONENT TIME SERIES RELATED TO EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) AND NORTH ATLANTIC COMPLEX (NAC) ALREADY ANALYSED BY OTHER TECHNIQUES AS COMPLEX EOFS OR MORE STANDARD APPROACHES.

THE SCHEDULE FOR THE PROPOSED RESEARCH IS THE FOLLOWING :

- ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM OF EQUATIONS WITHOUT STOCHASTIC TERMS.
- INTRODUCTION OF STOCHASTIC FORCING AND EVALUATION OF MOMENTS.
- EVALUATION OF POP'S CORRESPONDING TO KNOWN (ACTUAL OR MODEL) STOCHASTIC DATA FIELDS.
- DETERMINATION OF ERRORS DUE TO SAMPLING.

- APPLICATION OF SEASONAL POP'S TO GLOBAL GEOPHYSICAL DATA.
- INTERCOMPARISON, WITH POP'S, OF THE RESULTS OF MODEL CALCULATIONS PERFORMED BY OTHER GROUPS IN THE JOINT PROJECT.

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

UNIVERSIDADE DE ALCALA DE HENARES
Address
Dept. De Quimica Inorg. Plaza De San Diego

Spain

Participants (5)

HOOKE INSTIT F COOPERATIVE ATM RESEARCH
LODYC
MAX-PLANCK INSTITUT FUER METEOROLOGIE
METEOROLOGISCHE INSTITUT
ROYAL NETHER METEOR INSTITUT