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THE IMPACTS OF INCREASING CO2 AND CLIMATIC CHANGE ON EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE

Objective

TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CO2-INCREASE ON AGRICULTURE.

THE TASK WILL BE :

1) THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCENARIOS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE, BASED ON INSTRUMENTAL DATA AND CLIMATE MODEL RESULTS. ALTHOUGH CURRENT GCMS ARE UNABLE TO PRODUCE RELIABLE PREDICTIONS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE FOR AGROCLIMATIC REGIONS OF EUROPE, IT IS POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP A SET OF SCENARIOS THAT CAPTURE THE MAJOR UNCERTAINTIES AND PROVIDE A RANGE OF LIKELY FUTURE CLIMATE CONDITIONS FOR AGRICULTURE. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE DATA ON EXTREME EVENTS, AND RUNS OF EXTREME EVENTS THAT WILL BE IDENTIFIED BY THE MODELLING EFFORT AS BEING CRITICAL TO CROP YIELDS. THE CLIMATE VARIABLES SELECTED AND THEIR TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL RESOLUTION WILL, OF COURSE, DEPEND ON THE CROP-CLIMATE MODEL REQUIREMENTS; THUS, CLOSE COORDINATION AND INTERACTION BETWEEN PARTICIPATING INSTITUTIONS WILL BE NECESSARY.

2) THE ASSESSMENT OF THE FUTURE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE AS A RESULT OF INCREASING CO2 AND CLIMATIC CHANGE. THIS WILL BE BASED ON THE MODELS DEVELOPED IN CONJUNCTION WITH CLIMATE INFORMATION PROVIDED. RATHER THAN A "PREDICTION" OF IMPACT, A RANGE OF POSSIBLE "OUTCOMES" WILL BE PRODUCED WHICH REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT IN CLIMATE FORECASTS, CROP-CLIMATE MODELS AND AGRICULTURAL ADJUSTMENT. THE MODEL ESTIMATES WILL INCLUDE THE DIRECT EFFECTS OF CO2 AS WELL AS CLIMATIC CHANGES, AND WILL BE THE FIRST TIME SUCH INTERACTIONS HAVE BEEN ANALYSED USING CROP-CLIMATE MODELS IN THE CONTEXT OF EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE. THE EFFECTS OF POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE FREQUENCY OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES ON EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE WILL ALSO BE ASSESSED. FINALLY, THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN BASIC AGRONOMIC PRACTICES, SUCH AS CHANGES IN GENOTYPE, PLANTING DATES OR WATER OR FERTILISER APPLICATIONS, WILL BE INVESTIGATED BY ALTERING MODEL PARAMETERS AND ASSUMPTIONS. TAKEN TOGETHER, THESE RESULTS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT, INNOVATIVE PRODUCT OF THE RESEARCH PROJECT.

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

University of East Anglia
Address
University Plain
NR4 7TJ Norwich
United Kingdom

Participants (2)

AGRICULTURAL UNIV WAGENINGEN
UNIVERSITY OF READING