Objective
To explore the possibility to set up a closed form description of
climatic variables and see how the fine scale variability of the
atmosphere enters in their description, to carry out systematic
predictability analysis of meteorological and climatic fields,
and to develop models of intermediate complexity between
low-order and GCM ones in order to study the relationship between
low-frequency atmospheric variability and the response of climate
to external forcings.
The specificity of the approach lies in the extensive use of the
tools of nonlinear dynamical systems, fractals and chaos
theories.
The main thesis of the project is that error growth and limited
predictability are intrinsic properties of the atmosphere and
climate. They arise from the instability of the underlying
dynamics and the multifractal character of geophysical fields,
and are intimately connected to the sensitivity to initial
conditions characterizing chaotic dynamical systems.
The predictability analysis will be based on the evaluation of
the Lyapunov exponents of the system, and on the direct
monitoring of the time development of small initial errors.
Special algorithms are available for accomplishing this, once the
model equations describing the system under consideration are
available. There exist also special methods allowing the study
of predictability properties directly from time series data,
independent of any modeling.
In order to identify the mechanisms behind limited predictability
and the laws governing the time evolution of small errors simple
mathematical models of chaos and low-order atmospheric models
will be used. Finally, the output of large numerical models of
the weather forecasting or GCM type will be studied in the light
of the knowledge acquired from the analysis of simple models.
This will contribute to the understanding of the relative roles
of the processes developing on various scales and to the
identification of those phenomena for which the prediction skills
can be improved.
A two-layer quasi-geostrophic model of the atmosphere, both in
the beta-plane approximation and in spherical geometry will be
developed in order to understand the feedback between low
frequency variability and the interannual variability. Special
emphasis will be placed to devise the simplest workable version,
with the minimum of free parameters and dynamical variables. The
statistical properties will be studied using cluster analysis for
the identification of the weather regimes.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- natural sciences mathematics applied mathematics dynamical systems
- natural sciences mathematics pure mathematics geometry
- social sciences law
- natural sciences mathematics applied mathematics mathematical model
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Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
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Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Coordinator
1180 Bruxelles
Belgium
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.